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Mathematical Modeling and Regime Dynamics of Ammonium Chloride Imports in Indonesia Using Threshold Vector Autoregressive Integrated (TVARI) Approach

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Abstract
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Ammonium chloride plays an important role in Indonesia as a key raw material for Nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium (NPK) fertilizers and various chemical industries. Despite its importance, domestic production remains limited, and the potential supply from by-product sources has not been utilized in a meaningful way. As a result, Indonesia depends heavily on imports that come mainly from a single country. This situation creates vulnerabilities in the industrial supply chain and highlights the need for a clearer understanding of how import volume and import value behave over time. This study offers a mathematical model that examines the joint movement of these two variables by using the Threshold Vector Autoregressive Integrated approach, commonly known as TVARI. The novelty of the study lies in its use of a nonlinear threshold structure to show how the system shifts between different market conditions. The model reveals that import behavior changes across regimes. When import growth is low, movements are shaped mostly by changes in import value. When growth becomes higher, the pattern reflects the stronger influence of supply conditions. A single linear model cannot fully explain these shifts. By presenting a mathematical description of these regime movements, the study enhances the understanding of the underlying dynamics of Indonesia’s industrial imports. The insights support data informed decisions in supply chain planning and relate to Sustainable Development Goal 9 (industry resilience) and Sustainable Development Goal 12 (efficient and responsible use of raw materials). Goal 8 of the Sustainable Development Agenda, which is to encourage stable and sustainable economic activity, is likewise aligned with the enhanced comprehension of market behavior.

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  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 5
  • 10.47172/2965-730x.sdgsreview.v4.n03.pe02250
Sustainable Technology Adoption and Green Competitive Advantage: an Empirical Study of Msmes In Indonesia
  • Sep 20, 2024
  • Journal of Lifestyle and SDGs Review
  • Hadri Kusuma + 2 more

Objective: Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) have an important role in Indonesia's economic growth. MSMEs in the creative industry have grown and have played an important role in Indonesia's economy and the achievement of sustainable development goals (SDGs). This article examines the performance of MSMEs (MPR) in the creative industry by analyzing the influence of sustainable technology adoption (STA), accounting and financial resources (AFR), and green competitive advantage (GCA). Theoretical Framework: This article examines the performance of creative industry MSMEs in Indonesia using the Natural Resource Based View (NRBV) framework. Method: The research in this article was conducted with a sample of creative industry owners or managers in the provinces of Central Java, West Java, and Yogyakarta. This article is a quantitative survey-based research. A total of two hundred and ninety-four people participated in this study. Results and Discussion: The data analysis results indicate that STA and AFR have an impact on the GCA. The MPRs driven by AFR and GCA. However, this article did not find any influence of STA on MPR. Research Implications: According to the study's findings, MPR may increase when MSMEs are able to locate GTA. As a result, MSMEs must innovate while maintaining an emphasis on sound environmental management through the use of sustainable technologies and prudent financial management. Originality/Value: This study contributes to the literature by testing GTA and MPR within the NRBV framework. The relevance and value of this research are evidenced by the contribution of research results to improving the performance of MSMEs.

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 1
  • 10.30659/pondasi.v24i1.4994
ANALYSIS OF THE RIGID PAVEMENT ROAD DAMAGES IN THE SEGMENTS OF PEMALANG - TEGAL: A RESEARCH REVIEWED FROM THE ISSUES OF IMPLEMENTATION AND HANDLING
  • Aug 1, 2019
  • Pondasi
  • Sabilirrahman Sabilirrahman + 1 more

Road as a transportation system has an important role in Indonesia compared to other modes of transportation such as air and sea transportation. As road is found to be important, this condition must be maintained to keep it in a good condition. In fact, road damage still occurs that it can bother the road users and disrupt the pace of the economic activities of the community. Therefore, a research is needed to get to know factors that cause damages to the road segments of Pemalang - Tegal. This research belongs to descriptive research conducted by previously testing the validity and reliability of the research approach. It is done by looking for factors that cause damages to rigid pavement roads in terms of implementation, and factors causing the type of dominant damage and how to handle it.This resarch was conducted to 70 respondents using a questionnaires previously tested for validity and reliability. Data were obtained from the questionnaires filled by the respondents and then statistically processed through SPSS and AHP method. The results show that one of the causes of rigid pavement road damage viewed from implementation was the poor material processing system. The most dominant types of damages were abrasion, release of granules and wear. by overlaying in a damaged location.Keywords: Causes, Types of damage, How to handle the road Road as a transportation system has an important role in Indonesia compared to other modes of transportation such as air and sea transportation. As road is found to be important, this condition must be maintained to keep it in a good condition. In fact, road damage still occurs that it can bother the road users and disrupt the pace of the economic activities of the community. Therefore, a research is needed to get to know factors that cause damages to the road segments of Pemalang - Tegal. This research belongs to descriptive research conducted by previously testing the validity and reliability of the research approach. It is done by looking for factors that cause damages to rigid pavement roads in terms of implementation, and factors causing the type of dominant damage and how to handle it.This resarch was conducted to 70 respondents using a questionnaires previously tested for validity and reliability. Data were obtained from the questionnaires filled by the respondents and then statistically processed through SPSS and AHP method. The results show that one of the causes of rigid pavement road damage viewed from implementation was the poor material processing system. The most dominant types of damages were abrasion, release of granules and wear. by overlaying in a damaged location.Keywords: Causes, Types of damage, How to handle the road

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  • Cite Count Icon 2
  • 10.62754/joe.v3i8.5298
Pathways to SME Sustainability Integrating: Islamic Finance, Islamic Finance Literature and Government Support for Small and Medium Enterprises
  • Dec 13, 2024
  • Journal of Ecohumanism
  • Beby Kendida Hasibuan + 6 more

MSMEs play a progressively important role in Indonesia's economic growth, particularly in the context of sharia economic development. The government and Islamic financial institutions (IFIs) have actively supported the empowerment of MSMEs in order to accomplish the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). This research aims to conduct a more in-depth analysis of the level of success achieved by these efforts. This research aims to utilize quantitative methods to identify the factors that influence the decision-making process of Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) when accessing Islamic financial services. Additionally, it seeks to measure the impact of these factors on the performance of MSMEs. The research results are expected to offer more efficient policy recommendations to enhance the involvement of IFIs in promoting sustainable growth of MSMEs. Research indicates that sharia finance does not have a significant impact on the sustainable performance of MSMEs. However, it is worth noting that sharia financial literacy does have a significant influence on the sustainable performance of MSMEs. Islamic finance exerts a substantial impact on the sustainable performance of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). Moreover, the government's responsibility is to effectively regulate the connection between sharia finance and sharia financial literacy in order to enhance the long-term performance of micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs).

  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 3
  • 10.1088/1757-899x/588/1/012007
Risk Assessment on Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) Handling Facility, Case Study: Terminal LPG Semarang
  • Aug 1, 2019
  • IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering
  • T A Akbar + 4 more

LPG plays important role in Indonesia as household fuel. With the rapid growth of LPG usage, its handling facility is built across the country. The handling of LPG requires various activity prior to supporting its supply chain. One of the vital facility is Terminal LPG (or on this case Terminal LPG Semarang) which serve as a hub in LPG distribution because it handles a relatively huge amount of LPG. It is exposed to operational risk especially fire risk. This paper is intended to assess the risk of LPG Terminal by using combined both qualitative and quantitative methods. The initial step is to identify the hazard by using HAZOP Study. The next step is to determine the likelihood of the risk by using FTA and ETA resulted in event frequency. The severity level is determined using consequences analysis which involved fire modeling of the intended scenarios. The result from both frequency and consequences will be presented in the risk matrix to determine the unacceptable risk scenario to develop a mitigation plan by using Fire Risk Card to assess the capability of the Terminal firefighting equipment.

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Design of Application To Tracking System and Temperature Monitoring During Delivery Based on IoT Device
  • Nov 27, 2019
  • Advances in Transportation and Logistics Research
  • Revina Revina + 4 more

In the industry 4.0 era – a variety of new technologies to added value. Industry 4.0 is the end – to – end digitalization of all physical assets and integration into the digital supply chain with value chain technologies. Digital supply chain brings down those walls and the chain becomes a completely connected that is transparent to all the actors involved from the shippers of goods, delivery service companies, and finally to the customers. Logistics as part of the supply chain has an important role in Indonesia. Specifically, in delivery services. Currently, the tracking of the delivery service company can only be executed from one drop point to another drop point. A trip between drop points cannot be traced so that the tracking becomes not transparent. Logistics roles in delivery service company should utilize the Internet of Things (IoT) in handling customer who needs real-time transparency routes and monitoring of temperature-sensitive pharmaceutical cargo and perishable cargo. If this is implemented, delivery service companies in Indonesia can be crowned as the most advanced delivery service company in the world. The research information system uses a quantitative method. The data collection technique used in this research was collected by filling out a questionnaire. The result shown indicates that delivery service companies in Indonesia may use Traceable e-Seal that are connected to the MyTraceable application as a solution to transparency route, real-time monitoring of temperature-sensitive goods. We prompt to use MyTraceable application and smart lock because it can increase customer satisfaction and delivery service company performance.

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The Implementation of Marketing Mix for SME
  • Jul 1, 2025
  • Golden Ratio of Marketing and Applied Psychology of Business
  • Olfa Ningsi Paundanan + 3 more

Small and Medium Industries (SMIs) in the food sector play an important role in Indonesia's economic growth, but still face significant challenges in maintaining competitiveness amid increasingly fierce market competition and changes in consumer behavior. This study aims to analyze the implementation of the marketing mix (product, price, promotion, and distribution) at Sekotak Dari Dapur Bu' Sarhan SMI in Palu City, which is known for its innovative fishball products. The research method used is descriptive qualitative with a case study approach, involving participatory observation, in-depth interviews, and documentation with the primary informants, the owner and employees. The results show that local fish-based product innovation, cost-based pricing, and promotion through social media are the main factors in building the uniqueness and competitiveness of this SME. However, digital audience engagement is still low, and product distribution is limited to certain areas, so more creative promotion strategies and logistics partnerships are needed to expand the market. This research confirms the importance of adaptive and innovative marketing mix management. It provides practical recommendations for food SMEs to improve competitiveness through product innovation, price optimization, strengthening digital promotion, and expanding distribution networks. The findings are expected to be a reference for developing sustainable food SME marketing strategies in the digital era.

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  • Research Article
  • Cite Count Icon 3
  • 10.47172/2965-730x.sdgsreview.v4.n02.pe01637
Establishing Sustainable Education for Fashion and Textiledesign According to the SDG
  • Aug 30, 2024
  • Journal of Lifestyle and SDGs Review
  • Chen Li + 1 more

Objective: This study aimed to integrate Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) into fashion and textile industry education. It sought to connect the supply chain and address the growing demand for sustainability in the industry through interdisciplinary solutions. Theoretical Framework: Several key theoretical concepts and models were grounded. The SDGs provided a broad framework for integrating environmental, ethical, and social considerations into industry practices. The Triple Bottom Line (TBL) theory was used to understand how economic, environmental, and social dimensions could be balanced in the fashion and textile industry. Additionally, Stakeholder Theory was employed to analyze the interactions between academic institutions and industry supply chains. Method: A qualitative analysis was employed, focusing on how sustainable development was practiced in architectural education. Industry professionals were interviewed to understand industry experiences and needs. A literature review method was used to systematically collect, assess, and synthesize existing research findings. Results and Discussion: The results obtained revealed that fashion and textile colleges needed to establish teaching methods guided by the SDGs. Both academic and supply chain responses were positive, highlighting the potential and feasibility of this teaching model. Research Implications: The practical and theoretical significance of this study was discussed, providing insights into how the research findings could be applied or impact sustainable teaching models. These implications could endow designers with necessary sustainability knowledge, skills, and tools in education, strengthen the connection between the supply chain and academia, and enhance interdisciplinary collaboration to drive the fashion and textile industry towards greater sustainability and circularity. Originality/Value: This study contributed to the literature by collecting and synthesizing existing research findings. It demonstrated the value and relevance of the research by guiding academic and supply chain cooperation and enhancing interdisciplinary integration with the SDGs.

  • Supplementary Content
  • Cite Count Icon 3
  • 10.1184/r1/6723401.v1
Supply Chain Optimization With Uncertainty and Hierarchical Decision-Makers
  • Jul 1, 2018
  • Figshare
  • Pablo García-Herreros

Supply chain models describe the activities carried out in the process industry. They are used to design and operate complex sequences of tasks that transform raw materials and deliver final products to markets. Many optimization models have been developed for supply chain planning because they offer the possibility of finding strategies that lead to greater economic benefits. The traditional models have focused on finding the optimal decisions of the supply chain planner in a deterministic context. However, it is widely recognized that uncertainty and external decisionmakers play a fundamental role in the economic success of industrial supply chains. This thesis proposes mathematical programming models for supply chain optimization that consider uncertainty and external decision-makers in a variety of industrial settings. Chapter 1 provides the motivation and the necessary background for our models. In Chapter 2, we study the design of resilient supply chains with risk of disruptions. Disruptions is a type of uncertainty that has not received much attention for supply chain planning, but it is known to have a significant effect in the performance of supply chains. We develop a stochastic programming model for supply chain design that includes disruptions at distribution centers, and a tailor-made solution method to address industrial instances of the problem. In Chapter 3, we present a novel cross-decomposition algorithm for investment planning under uncertainty. The algorithm integrates Benders and Lagrangean decomposition for two-stage stochastic programming formulations. Our computational experiments on instances of the resilient supply chain design problem show the superior performance of the cross-decomposition algorithm over Benders decomposition and direct solution with commercial MILP solvers. In Chapter 4, we propose a new approach for production planning and inventory management in process networks. Inventory management in these networks is a very challenging task because of the close interaction between production activities and the presence of diverse sources of uncertainty. Our planning strategy is based on implementing basestock policies iii to control production rates and inventory levels. Our results show the benefits of using a policybased approach for inventory planning in comparison to other stochastic programming approaches. In Chapter 5, we address the capacity planning problem with rational markets. Our model considers potential customers as rational decision-makers in a bilevel optimization formulation. We propose two reformulation techniques that transform the bilevel model into a single-level problem by replacing the lower level with constraints that guarantee its optimality. The reformulations are based on the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker conditions and the strong duality property of the lower-level linear program; the examples show better computational performance for the duality-based reformulation. The results also demonstrate the benefits of considering markets as rational decision-makers for capacity expansion planning, since it allows developing expansion plans according to the needs of the consumers. In Chapter 6, we extend the capacity planning model to include competitors that optimize their own capacity expansion plans. The resulting trilevel formulation considers as rational all decision-makers present in a competitive environment. We analyze the properties of the trilevel formulation and develop two algorithms to solve this challenging problem. The results reveal the complex interactions that take place in decision-making problems with multiple players and show the importance of considering them in the model. Finally, in Chapter 7 we present the conclusions of this thesis. We demonstrate that uncertainty and external decision-makers have significant impact in supply chain operations, and that our models can be used to anticipate their influence in supply chain performance. The application of these models for industrial supply chain planning has a remarkable potential to increase efficiency.

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Разработка подхода к интегрированному планированию в цепочках поставок приборостроительной отрасли
  • Oct 3, 2024
  • Bulletin of scientific research results
  • Elena Volkova + 1 more

Purpose: the article proposes an approach to integrated planning in supply chains of the instrument-making industry, aimed at improving the efficiency of coordination between their main participants. Methods: the study used methods of system analysis, statistical analysis and expert assessments, which made it possible to evaluate current approaches to planning and propose an approach to integrated planning based on modern digital technologies used in the performance of the planning function. To obtain the results of the study, official statistical data on the productivity and economic indicators of the instrument-making industry, data on logistics operations and supply chains of various enterprises in the industry were used. Results: the main scientific result is the approach to the development of integrated planning in supply chains developed by the author. The study also provided practical recommendations on the use of management methods at different stages of the formation of an integrated planning system. Practical significance: the practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of applying the proposed recommendations at enterprises of the instrument-making industry to improve the efficiency of supply chain management. The implementation of the developed methods will allow enterprises to adapt to dynamic market conditions, reduce costs and improve coordination of the actions of private logistics chain participants. The results of the study can be used to develop and improve planning systems in organizations in the instrument-making industry.

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  • Cite Count Icon 7
  • 10.4128/9781606493175
Supply Chain Planning: Practical Frameworks for Superior Performance
  • Sep 25, 2012
  • Matt Liberatore + 1 more

Buy BookDesk / Exam Copy...MoreThe critical role that supply chain planning contributes to a firm’s financial well-being has never been greater. All too often, however, considerable managerial resources are directed toward planning activities with minimal results. In this book, we present proven, practical management frameworks used by the authors to support supply chain operations management and planning in private industry. These frameworks provide methodologies for managing critical activities such as supply chain strategic planning and project selection, manufacturing and distribution planning, performance measurement, supply chain risk management, and customer logistics and inventory deployment. The book is intended for supply chain professionals, as well as for graduate and advanced undergraduate students. Practitioners will obtain valuable new insights and examples of implementable frameworks and methods for managing their supply chain functions and organizations. Students will develop an understanding of real-world approaches for supply chain planning, decision support, and many other key activities. $(function() {$("#shortDescription").html(function() { if($("#fullDescription").html().length > 1800){ return $("#fullDescription").html().substr(0, 1800) + $("#shortDescription").html(); }else { return $("#fullDescription").html().substr(0, 1800); } });$("#showText").click(function() {$("#fullDescription").css("display", "inline");$("#shortDescription").css("display", "none");$("#showText").css("display", "none"); }); });

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Pemberdayaan UMKM Menuju Rintisan Desa Devisa di Desa Tropodo Kabupaten Sidoarjo
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  • Sediono Sediono + 6 more

MSMEs play an important role in Indonesia's economic stability, which is in line with the 8th point of the Sustainable Development Goals, namely Decent Work and Economic Growth. Such as MSMEs in Tropodo village with their superior product, namely Kembang Telang which is moving to try to become a “Desa Devisa” in order to be able to bring local products to foreign countries. The implementation method used in order to realize Tropodo Village into a “Desa Devisa” through several stages, namely: identification of activities, socialization of activities, identification of village potential, formation of MSME cadres to mobilize micro business actors, marketing research with a statistical approach to determine the potential and target market, presentation of research results, training and mentoring activities with students, innovation and implementation of training activities by inviting resource persons who are experts in their fields, monitoring and evaluating the implementation of activities, publication of activities, project sustainability plan. The result of community service is that MSMEs get useful knowledge and can continue to be developed, especially to improve the community's economy through marketing MSME digital products both domestically and globally.

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  • Cite Count Icon 10
  • 10.1002/ocea.5273
Economic Vulnerabilities and Livelihoods: Impact of COVID‐19 in Fiji and Vanuatu
  • Dec 1, 2020
  • Oceania
  • Rukmani Gounder

Economic Vulnerabilities and Livelihoods: Impact of <scp>COVID</scp>‐19 in Fiji and Vanuatu

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  • Cite Count Icon 7
  • 10.3390/systems12100395
Evaluation Research on Resilience of Coal-to-Liquids Industrial Chain and Supply Chain
  • Sep 26, 2024
  • Systems
  • Anbo Wu + 4 more

The objective of this study is to enhance the resilience of the coal-to-liquids (CTL) industrial chain and supply chain to withstand increasing shock pressures. There is an urgent need to improve the resilience of the industrial chain and supply chain. This paper identifies 21 resilience-influencing factors from 4 perspectives: absorption capacity, adaptability, recovery capacity, and self-learning capacity; it then constructs an evaluation indicator system. The Interval Type 2 Fuzzy-Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory-Analytic Network Process (IT2F-DEMATEL-ANP) method is adopted to determine the weights of the indicator system, and a resilience evaluation is performed based on the Interval Type 2 Fuzzy-Prospect Theory-Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution (IT2F-PT-TOPSIS) method. Furthermore, in the case of the CTL industrial chain and supply chain of China Shenhua Energy Group Ningxia Coal Industry Co., Ltd. (CENC) (Ningxia, China), this study ranks the resilience level from 2018 to 2022 to identify the factors that have contributed to a reduction in resilience and to implement measures to enhance the resilience of the CTL industrial chain and supply chain. The results show that the level of the CTL industrial chain and supply chain resilience was lowest in 2020, while it was highest in 2021. Factors such as the degree of domestication of key technologies, the rationality of the CTL industry layout, and the stability of supply and demand chains are identified as significant determinants of resilience levels. This points the way to enhancing the resilience of the CTL industry and supply chain.

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Penguatan Rantai Pasok Rajungan Berbasis Keadilan Gender dan Ekonomi Biru di Dusun Puyahan, Desa Lembar Selatan, Lombok Barat
  • Mar 31, 2025
  • Jurnal Gema Ngabdi
  • Muhammad Marzuki + 9 more

Puyahan Hamlet in South Lembar Village is one of the traditional crab peeling centers (Portunus pelagicus) on the west coast of Lombok Island. Women in the informal work system dominate this activity without social protection or quality standards. Despite playing an important role in Indonesia's crab export supply chain, women peelers still face major challenges in technical and institutional aspects. This service activity aims to increase technical capacity and strengthen the institution of women crab peeler groups through training in the processing of fishery products based on the principles of food sanitation and facilitating the formation of legal business organizations. The methods used include participatory social mapping, technical training based on Good Manufacturing Practices (GMP) and Sanitation Standard Operating Procedures (SSOP), group institutional formation, and participatory evaluation. The results of the training showed a significant improvement in participants' hygiene understanding and practices, with an average pre-test score of 35.4 and a post-test score of 82.1. In addition, the establishment of organizational structures and institutional legalization allowed groups access to advanced training and wider economic opportunities. This intervention has been proven to be able to encourage behavior change, strengthen women's socio-economic position in the fisheries value chain, and support the gender empowerment agenda in coastal areas in a sustainable manner. The program recommends replication in other coastal areas with a gender-responsive participatory approach to strengthen the economic resilience of women's fishing communities.

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Comparison of Foreign MSME Development: Organizing the Creative Industry to Support the National Economy
  • Jun 5, 2025
  • Science of Law
  • Putera Fardhi Utama + 2 more

Creative industries, especially Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), play an important role in Indonesia's GDP growth. However, many MSMEs lack adequate legal protection, especially regarding intellectual property rights such as copyrights, trademarks, and patents. This research uses a Normative legal method using a statutory approach, comparative approach, and conceptual approach. The research data is then analyzed and described descriptively, juridically, and normatively. Qualitative research processes qualitative data in the form of descriptive or narrative data. The results showed that Malaysia and Singapore are countries with large economies for Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs), with different approaches. Malaysia uses affirmative policies, fiscal incentives, and financing through SME Corp to empower MSMEs, with a focus on manufacturing and fiscal incentives. Despite facing challenges such as bureaucracy, low productivity, and global competition, MSMEs continue to grow. Singapore, on the other hand, emphasizes global competitiveness through support institutions and collaboration with multinational companies. Both countries are in the position that strengthening access to finance, skills training, and integration into global supply chains are critical to the success of MSMEs. Both countries stress the importance of coordinated policies, partnership strategies, and technological adaptation to build competitive MSMEs in the era of globalization.

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