Abstract
A mathematical model was used to describe the population of the aquatic invasive species, Ciona intestinalis in the presence of cultured mussel production. A differential equation model was developed to represent the key life stages: egg, larva, recruit, juvenile and adult. Stage transition rates were calculated from time spent in a stage and transition probabilities. Because surface availability for the settlement phase is a key determinant of population growth, dead juvenile and dead adult stages were also modelled, together with their drop-off rates. This model incorporated temperature dependencies and an environmental carrying capacity. Model validation was carried out against field data collected from Georgetown Harbour, in 2008. Relative sensitivity indices were calculated to determine the most influential factors in the model. The results indicated that the modelled outputs were broadly in agreement with the observed data. Under baseline conditions the number of C. intestinalis increased from early September to late October, after which they reached a plateau at an abundance of approximately five individuals per cm 2 . Sensitivity analyses revealed that a reduction in spawning interval or the development time of larva accelerated C. intestinalis population growth. In contrast, decreasing either carrying capacity or the percentage drop-off of live juvenile and adult stages resulted in a decline in the population. This research provides the first detailed model describing population dynamics of C. intestinalis in mussel farms and will be valuable in exploring effective treatment strategies for this invasive species.
Highlights
Invasive Alien Species (IAS) are a priority issue under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), with Aichi Biodiversity Target 9 stating that ‘By 2020, invasive alien species and pathways are identified and prioritised, priority species are controlled or eradicated, and measures are in place to manage pathways to prevent their introduction and establishment’
It is estimated that 11% of the c. 12,000 alien species in Europe are invasive, causing environmental, economic and social damage; and it is reasonable to expect that the rate of biological invasions into Europe will increase in the coming years
A summary description of each of the Top 20 IAS issues determined at the FINS conference workshops is presented below
Summary
Invasive Alien Species (IAS) are a priority issue under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), with Aichi Biodiversity Target 9 stating that ‘By 2020, invasive alien species and pathways are identified and prioritised, priority species are controlled or eradicated, and measures are in place to manage pathways to prevent their introduction and establishment’. Great Britain and Ireland have many high impact invasive species in aquatic and terrestrial habitats, such as Asian clam Corbicula fluminea (Caffrey et al 2011; Lucy et al 2012; Barbour et al 2013) and the Harlequin ladybird Harmonia axyridis (Roy et al 2012), with other high impact IAS predicted to arrive, in freshwaters (Gallardo and Aldridge 2013). The rate of biological invasion is increasing generally, with greater needs than ever to predict their identities and impacts (Dick et al 2013). This increase could be exacerbated by climate change (Walther et al 2009)
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