Mathemathical modelling and numerical simulations of COVID-19 spreading - example of Bosnia

Abstract

Introduction: Mathematical modeling of coronavirus disease spread and computer simulations are currently one of the main tools in public health that can give important indicators for prevention planning. Based on mathematical projections and daily updates of information, the measures are either tightened or reduced, in order to protect the health of the population. Aim: The aim of this paper is to present a computer system based on an adequate mathematical model that allows frequent execution of various scenarios of spread severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in any period in the future. Also, the aim of this article is to point out the importance of measures for the prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Bosnia and Herzegovina through examples of computer simulation models. Methods: Software solution based on the USLIRD model (Unpopulated - Susceptible - Latent - Infectious - Recovered - Deceased) was developed, with a number of variable parameters ‘reproduction number, delay period, infectivity period, hospital capacity, characteristics of population). By setting these parameters in accordance with the existing and available data, the model is brought to an optimized state with the possibility of a realistic assessment of the course of the infection curve in any future period. Data from the beginning of the pandemic are collected at the Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, University of Sarajevo and updated several times a day. The set of measures is divided into two types. 'Intervention 1' is a measure to close institutions that are at high risk for pandemics, working from home, wearing face mask, enhanced hygiene when entering facilities with a larger number of people. 'Intervention 2' presents restrictive measures that has been introduced as mandatory in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The period 01.03.2020 to 01.09.2020 was observed. Results: Without epidemiological measures, Bosnia and Herzegovina's health system would quickly collapse. Restrictive measures reduce the intensity of the spread of the infection, save human lives and keep the health system functional, but with consequences on other aspects of society - reduction of economic activities, collapse of the service industry and companies and disorders in mental health status of the population. Four different scenarios of the situation were analyzed. Scenario number three is current condition with measures that are currently in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The reintroduction of restrictive measures leads to a decrease in the number of infected population and suppression of the spread of the pandemic, which is shown in scenario 4. Conclusion: Self-discipline, adherence to measures, while trying to avoid restrictive measures should be the way to fight the COVID-19 pandemic. Whatever the consequences, the initiation of restrictive measures to preserve the health of the population should be imperative.