Abstract
This research paper aims to model Mass Movements Susceptibility (MMS) in the province of Tétouan. First, we identified the characteristics and spatial mapping of the different types of MM (collapse, mudflows, and complex landslides) by means of the interpretation of satellite images and from fieldwork. Subsequently, we selected the predictive parameters controlling the occurrence of MM e.g. lithology, land use, fault density, hydrographic network density, slope degrees, slope aspects, and elevation. We used the heuristic method for Modeling Mass Movements Susceptibility (MMMS). The choice of this method compared to other methods (fractal, factorial, and neurons) is justified by the possibilities of intervention and the judgment of the expert who relies on the ground truth to select the parameters, to identify the classes, and to assign the weights to each one; unlike to other methods with steps that are done automatically and randomly. The results of the validation of the susceptibility map correspond to 70% compared to the field data and it includes five susceptibility classes (not susceptible, low, moderate, high, and very high). Indeed, the originality of this paper relies on the fact that the creation of our susceptibility map will eventually indicate the areas of roads, dwellings, the extension of urbanization, and dams, which are located in areas at risk of MM. Our map is also a powerful decision-making tool to conduct management plans and to guide the selection of sites to build new projects; which help mitigate the socio-economic impacts usually encountered when mass movements in Tétouan province are triggered.
Highlights
Mass Movement (MM) is a phenomenon of geological, geophysical, and/or seismic origin, where a mass of terrain descends on a slope (Cruden 1991)
The weight assigned to each parameter is related to its relevance in the genesis of Mass Movements (MM ). 2 Quantitative methods that are based on the useability of probabilistic and statistical empirical models, which calculate a different weight as a function of the number of mass movements that we have mapped within the different classes identified for each controlling parameter (Dai et al 2001; Lee and Min 2001; Lee et al 2004)
The ROC curves were established and the areas under the AUC (= 0.79) were calculated to assess the degree of fit of the model to choose the best reclassification of Mass Movements Susceptibility Map (MMSM)
Summary
Mass Movement (MM) is a phenomenon of geological, geophysical, and/or seismic origin, where a mass of terrain descends on a slope (Cruden 1991). Several studies have been conducted worldwide (Chalkias et al 2014; Del Ventisette et al 2014; Shahabi and Hashim 2015; Bozzano et al 2020) and in the Northern Rif to identify, classify, and map mass movements (Maurer 1968; El Gharbaoui 1981; Millies-Lacroix 1968; El Kharim 2012; Mastere et al 2015; Ait Brahim et al 2018) Some of these mass movements can be caused by the nature (Okeke and Wang 2016) or induced by man-made activities. As Carrara et al (1995) said: “The past and present mass movements are the key to the future”, it is mandatory to delineate areas prone to mass sliding in order to prevent and better manage these catastrophic events before they take place in the future
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