MASS COMMUNICATION AND BELIEF CHANGE: A TEST OF THREE MATHEMATICAL MODELS

Abstract

Three mathematical models of communication and belief change were proposed and tested: a proportional change model, a belief certainty model, and an accumulated information model. A quick correlational check of the three models suggested that the accumulated information model was the superior with the belief certainty model being the most inferior of the three. Stronger support for the accumulated information model obtained using a more stringent test: a nonlinear bivariate regression which produced visual “plots” of empirical data that nearly duplicated the visual “plots” produced by the theoretical model. The accumulated information model states that belief change is proportional to the discrepancy between the original belief and the belief communicated in the message, and inversely proportional to the amount of information which the receiver has about the topic at the time the message is received. The belief certainty model was the most inferior of the three indicating that the degree to which a receiver is certain in conviction is unrelated to the communication-belief change relationship.