MARKETING AUDIT AND POSSIBILITIES OF FORECASTING

Abstract

The paper addresses selected qualitative and quantitative forecasting methods available for use in practical marketing for development of marketing strategies based on outcomes of marketing audit. Marketing and its application is an essential activity in any business. The task of marketing business audit is to point out and evaluate whether its marketing activities allow its future prosperity on the required level and competitiveness. This, however, is closely related to marketing forecasting. The contribution is characterized by the types of marketing forecasting (quantitative and qualitative) and a brief description of some used methods. Quantitative methods are based on the data obtained from the records of the relevant activities, which are then mathematically processed. These include particularly the method of moving averages, exponential smoothing method, the method of regression analysis, the method of classical decomposition and seasonal adjustment. Contrary to quantitative methods, qualitative methods are based on expert estimates and specialists in the field. The main reason for the use of these methods is that there are reliable and describe quality data of the investigated problem, on the other hand, these methods allow comprehensive solution to the problem. One of the fundamental methods of this group is Delphi method, query, the scenario method and the conjunctive method. The article is simultaneously remitted to the advantages and disadvantages, which indicate the possibility of their use. It is generally known that the accuracy of the forecasting depends on various factors, with the most important features in the first group (quantitative method) is the quality of the documents about the past activity and in the second group (qualitative methods) is the experience and professionalism of the experts. Eventual forecasting errors can be eliminated to some extent.