Market Behaviour and Economic Analysis of Arrivals and Prices of Potato in Fruit and Vegetable Market Okara (Punjab), Pakistan

Vegetable plays key role in providing nutrition to human body. Vegetables are major sources of vitamins, minerals, fiber, iron, calcium etc. Potato is the highest yielding vegetable in the world as well as in India. It is one of the significant vegetables of Indian consumer’s food basket. Despite of high production, due to seasonal production and perishable nature market arrival and price are highly volatile in nature. So, the present study was conducted with an intension to study the trend in arrival and price of potato in four major markets in India along with their Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) and seasonality and variability associated with them. The study is based on secondary data collected from www.agmarknet.gov.in. Data was collected for the period March 2009 to March 2019, and the analysis was done based on that. Linear trend in arrival and nominal prices were found to be positive across the markets, however for real prices, it was found negative except Bangalore (` 5.50/q per annum). CAGR for arrival in all the four markets were found positive, and for real prices it was negative in most of the months. The main season of arrival of potato in different markets was December to March, and for prices index is highest during the off season. Variability in arrival is highest in Agra market and in price variability is highest in Azadpur market.

Potato is the major vegetable of India. Variation in output of potato over the years leads to wide fluctuation in its price exposing the growers to a high risk situation. To cope with this, information on potential market and quantum of arrivals and prices of potato in different months of year is necessary for farmers. The current study attempted to analyze the variation in arrivals and prices of potato in highest potato producing district of Uttar Pradesh i.e. Agra. Time series data for last 10 years on area and production as well as market arrivals and prices of potato was collected from various government organizations. The findings indicated that the annual growth rates in area and production of potato during last ten years were significant and positive. However in case of productivity, it was insignificant and negative. The annual compound growth rates of arrivals were comparatively higher than that of market price. Inter-year variations in market arrivals and prices of potato were observed. The monthly arrival of potato was highest in the month of January and lowest in the month of October. Accordingly, the market price was highest during October-November and lowest in the month of February. The seasonal index of arrival showed that the arrivals were low during June to November and higher during December to May. The results confirmed that there were both negative and positive relationships across months between market arrivals and prices in terms of correlation coefficients.

Potato is an integral part of the global food system and the world’s number one non food grain commodity. During 2018-19 potato acreage in India was 21.84 lakh ha with a production of 52.58 million tonnes. Major potato growing states are Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Punjab. Prices of potato exhibit both inter-year and intra-year variations. This price fluctuation in potato is a major concern among farmers, consumers and policy makers. The current study is an attempt to analyze the behavior of prices and arrivals of potato in the major markets of India. The time series data on the price and arrivals of potato in the major markets of leading producing states were collected from Agmarknet. The data corresponding to the potato prices in future market were collected from MCX (Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.) where it has been traded till 2014. The prices of potato significantly increased over the last ten years compounded annually in all the selected markets. Significant positive growth rate of arrivals was found in Agra and Ahmadabad markets and negative growth rate was found in Jalandhar market. The price and arrivals series have shown significant negative correlation in all the markets. Seasonal indices depict that prices of potato are usually high during the months of October to December and starts declining till April which is in par with the post harvest period of the crop. Price discovery of potato is a complex process and is affected by a number of factors like production, total arrivals, lagged price, future prices, which have been quantified here and other factors like transportation, storage, weather uncertainties and pests and disease attack.

With a share of 28.70 percent in the total area in the country, Uttar Pradesh is one the largest producer of potatoes in the country. Potato is a semi-perishable crop, and every year the fluctuations can be seen in the arrivals and prices of the crop. The present study was conducted in the selected five markets of Uttar Pradesh to analyse the behaviour of arrivals and prices, including the Agra market, as Agra is the largest potato-producing district. The annual growth rate in the area and production of the potato was found to be positive and significant statistically. The variability in the monthly arrivals and potato prices was highest in Lucknow and Bareilly markets. The effect of the monthly arrivals on prices was negative and significant statistically. The seasonal index of the arrivals showed that arrivals were maximum from December to March, and prices were lower during these months. The correlation among all market prices was statistically significant and positive, depicting moderate to high market integration. Thus, the study suggested that establishing a scientific storage structure, market information dissemination, and proper check on market arrivals and prices would reduce their variability.

Oil palm is native to West Africa. It is one of nine major oils traded in the global edible oil. The study focuses on the trends in oil palm arrivals and market prices in India, particularly in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana states. There was a significant increase in annual oil palm arrivals from in Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, with a percentage change of 92.43% and 84.83% respectively. This increase was statistically significant at a 10% level, R² values are 0.9243 and 0.8483 respectively. A linear trend analysis for prices of oil palm from 2010 to 2022 indicated a consistent rise in oil palm prices in both states, with Andhra Pradesh seeing an annual increase of 737.05 Rupees and Telangana 757.72 Rupees. The percentage change in prices was 59.18% and 66.08% respectively, with R² values of 0.5918 and 0.6608. Positive and significant correlation coefficient is observed in both the states. Seasonal variations in prices were also analyzed, highlighting that oil palm prices were typically drop after harvest it is influenced by peak harvesting periods and imports of crude oil from other countries. In Andhra Pradesh, the seasonal price index for oil palm Fresh Fruit Bunches (FFBs) was highest in May and April months, then decreased to a minimum level due to increase in the oil palm arrivals. Understanding these seasonal patterns is crucial for effective decision-making by farmers, traders, and policymakers.

Aims: The study was carried out to examine the growth performance of the major crops, i.e., rice, potato, pineapple, ginger, rapeseed and mustard and pea, for the last decade (2010–2019) during 2021–22. Methodology: The study was based on secondary data collected from various official sources of the Government of Meghalaya. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR), Seasonal Variability Index (SVI) and coefficient of variation were used to examine the objectives of the study. Results: The result of the study showed that positive growth accounted for area, production and productivity of selected crops, but high growth was recorded in production than area and productivity due to an increase in the area during the preceding years with high fluctuations in market arrivals and their prices. The positive relationship between market arrivals and prices for several months of the year could be beneficial for growers, whereas the negative relationship might be a loss for growers. Conclusion: The study recommended that there is a need to increase the area under cultivation to increase production and narrow the fluctuation in price of the same crops in the state

The analysis of prices and market arrivals over time is important for formulating a sound agricultural price policy. Fluctuations in market arrivals largely contribute to price instability. In order to devise the appropriate ways and means for reducing the price fluctuations of agricultural commodities, there is a need to have a thorough understanding of the price behavior over time.Forecasting the price of agricultural commodities, presents some unique challenges such as data quality issues, weather aberrations, high fluctuations, price variations across neighboring marketplaces, etc. On the demand side, the instability in the prices of agricultural commodities is influenced by a number of factors such as annual variation in production, low price elasticity of demand and seasonality of agricultural production.The study relied upon the secondary time series data on monthly market prices and arrivals of Okra collected from the Agricultural Produce Market Committee, Surat. Analysis was performed on the monthly and annual time series data on wholesale price to develop reliable forecast for 2022. Month wise Seasonal indices of Okra in the Surat market showed that the seasonal price indices were above average from November to March while below average from May to October when market arrivals are more. The seasonal pattern showed that prices declined from April to October and reached the lowest point in May and reached peak in December. Seasonal fluctuations were observed both in market arrivals as well as prices of Okra. In the present investigation, various Seasonal, Non-seasonal, and Seasonal ARIMA (Box-Jenkins) models were developed to measure the forecast accuracy. The best model was chosen on the basis of the least values of Schwarz Bayesian criteria (SBC) and Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). After performing a series of diagnostic tests, it was observed that N-BIC (12.417) and MAPE (22.88) were the least for SARIMA (0,0,2) (0,1,1)12 model. It came out to be the most representative model for the price of Okra in the Surat market. The model can be used for reaching dependable price forecasts. The quantification of these aspects in the vegetables is an immediate need to formulate effective policies to make prices stable thereby safeguard the interest of the farmers as well as the consumer.

The present study aimed to analyze the potato market integration in India, specifically how the Tamil Nadu market behaves with respect to the behavior of other potato markets across India. Major potato markets, such as Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, which have a majority share in the total supply potato to Tamil Nadu were selected for market integration analysis. Since price data for Tamil Nadu market was non-stationary and other market prices were stationary in level form, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) was used to estimate cointegration (long run equilibrium) among these markets. Month wise potato price data from January 2005 to September 2016 were collected from different sources and used for analysis. Results revealed that long run equilibrium existed among the potato markets in Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat but the speed of adjustment of equilibrium level is very less in the long run. Change in the potato price of Gujarat market was the key determinant of shocks in the potato market of Tamil Nadu.

The present study aimed to analyze the potato market integration in India, specifically how the Tamil Nadu market behaves with respect to the behavior of other potato markets across India. Major potato markets, such as Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat, which have a majority share in the total supply potato to Tamil Nadu were selected for market integration analysis. Since price data for Tamil Nadu market was non-stationary and other market prices were stationary in level form, Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model (ARDL) was used to estimate cointegration (long run equilibrium) among these markets. Month wise potato price data from January 2005 to September 2016 were collected from different sources and used for analysis. Results revealed that long run equilibrium existed among the potato markets in Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat but the speed of adjustment of equilibrium level is very less in the long run. Change in the potato price of Gujarat market was the key determinant of shocks in the potato market of Tamil Nadu.

Potatoes, possessing the characteristics of being suitable for food crop, vegetable, and fodder use, have become an important supplementary product for ensuring food security and vegetable supply. Their price fluctuations play a significant role in regulating production and consumption. Against the backdrop of establishing a unified national market, studying potato price fluctuations from a spatial perspective is crucial for scientifically and systematically understanding the patterns of China's potato market. This study employs Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition, Spatial autocorrelation and Vector Autoregression models to analyse spatial variations and inter-regional transmission mechanisms in China's potato price fluctuations, utilising wholesale market price data from January 2014 to December 2024 across diverse regions. Findings indicate distinct spatial patterns in potato price dynamics with significant inter-regional interactions. The Northern Crop Region exhibits predominantly short-term, high-frequency fluctuations, whereas the Central Crop Region, Southern Crop Region, and Southwestern Crop Region are characterized by long-term, low-frequency fluctuations. Potato prices in China exhibit significant spatial heterogeneity, and potato price fluctuations at both national and regional levels are primarily influenced negatively by those in other regions. The degree of interactive influence between potato prices across regions exhibits considerable variation, with the Central China crop region holding a certain degree of dominance in the national market. Based on these findings, policy recommendations are proposed, including strengthening tiered and regional monitoring and analysis of potato prices, standardizing inter-regional transmission pathways for potato prices, and guiding the formation of a complementary regional structure for potato production.

"The present study was performed to analyse the growth rate and variation (instability) in arrival and price of potato in Assam. The study was conducted for five major markets and five zones of Assam. It was based on secondary data on daily market arrival and daily wholesale price of potato collected from www.agmarknet.com for the period 2010-2021. The trend of potato arrival was positively significant in Hojai market. The study observed that there was a positive growth rate in arrival of potato in almost all of the markets primarily after the harvesting months. The price of potato in Barpeta Road, Jorhat and Balugaon markets had exhibited a significant positive high growth rate in the month of January. The seasonality index for arrival had been high during the period December-March which is the main season of potato in Assam. The instability for arrival and price in Barpeta Road and Balugaon markets were much higher than the other markets. It is important to have proper storage facility to minimise the instability."

In view of the phenomenon that the potato price trend in Shandong, Inner Mongolia and Gansu, the main potato producing areas, is basically the same as that in China, Using the potato price daily data for these provinces from 2011 to 2015, this paper studies the transmission mechanism of potato prices between the main potato producing areas and China by using unit root test, granger causality test, VAR model, impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition technology. The results showed that from 1 January 2011 to 31 December 2015, there was a co-integration relationship of potato price between Shandong province and China, and these two potato prices which had a statistically significant correlation have a long-term equilibrium these two in the long-term equilibrium, potato price in Shandong province is the granger cause of potato price change in China, and there is a two-way causal relationship between these two. The long-term equilibrium of potato price between Shandong province and China is highly stable. Impulse response analysis and variance decomposition showed that the change of Chinese potato price and the change of Shandong potato price had significant effects on the change of Chinese potato price.

Due to the semi-perishable nature of sweet potato the price fluctuation occur based on demand and supply. Hence, it becomes necessary to precisely forecast market price of sweet potato. Price forecasting of sweet potato was carried out for six selected states in India using time series monthly market price, collected from AGMARKNET price portal from January 2010 to December 2021. Exponential Smoothing Models (ESM), Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model and Time Delay Neural Network (TDNN) model were used for forecasting of sweet potato price. It was observed that among the forecasting models, the TDNN model predicted accurate future prices of sweet potato based on the lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) than SARIMA and ESM. The forecast indicated that the average market price of sweet potato in selected states of India viz., Kerala, Odisha, Gujarat, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Telangana, would be in the range of Rs. 684 to Rs. 2757 per quintal during January 2022 to December 2022. The forecasted price of sweet potato would provide valuable information to the sweet potato growers, government institutions and other stakeholders in the sweet potato value chain to take appropriate decisions on production, marketing and consumption of sweet potato.

This study aims to identify the constraints on potato farming and marketing in the Gayo Highlands of Aceh. The research sample consisted of potato farmers and traders who were involved in potato marketing in Bener Meriah Regency. Determination of the sample of traders is done by snowball sampling technique. The identification of constraints uses a qualitative descriptive approach, while the income analysis uses an analysis of costs and farm revenues. The results showed that there were constraints in potato farming in the form of wilt disease which caused potatoes to be harvested immediately and the fruit produced was smaller. This will have an impact on decreasing the income of potato farming. The relatively high use of pesticides during the rainy season has implications for increasing the cost of potato farming, on the other hand the difficulty of accessing capital causes farmers to enter into potato farming partnerships with collector traders with the provision that potato marketing must be done to these traders. The development of potato farming in the Gayo Highlands of Aceh has encountered several obstacles including fluctuations in potato prices, lack of weed control which has implications for decreasing potato productivity, difficulty in accessing capital which will determine the sustainability of farming, income and farmers' welfare. farmers, namely selling potatoes through collectors, through wholesalers, and selling directly to consumers. Factors that determine farmers' decisions in marketing potatoes are the selling price, farm capital assistance, farm location, and potato quality. Direct marketing of potatoes (3rd type) to consumers is more efficient than other potato marketing channels because it can reduce farming and marketing costs. However this is rare and the sales volume of potatoes is very small.

This study has been undertaken with the twin objectives of examining the variability pattern of market arrivals and prices of selected crops (Onion, Garlic and Turmeric) in selected markets (Lucknow and Kanpur) of Uttar Pradesh and analysing the relationship between market arrivals and prices. The study is based on market arrivals and wholesale prices of selected crops collected from Rajya Krishi Utapadan Mandi Parishad, Lucknow (U.P.), Krishi Utapadan Mandi Samiti, Lucknow and Krishi Utapadan Mandi Samiti, Kanpur for the period 2001-2010. The study has shown that the extent of variability in market arrival of onion was lower in Lucknow market but higher in Kanpur market. Its prices variability was lower in Kanpur market and higher in Lucknow market. In case of garlic, the variability in market arrivals and prices was lower in Kanpur market but higher in Lucknow market. In case of turmeric, the variability in market arrivals and prices was lower in Lucknow market but higher in Kanpur market. The study has confirmed the negative relationship between market arrivals prices of onion, garlic and turmeric over the years in all two markets. However, across different months, there have been several instances of positive relationship between market arrivals and prices in Lucknow and Kanpur market.