Mapping Urban Shrinkage: Socioeconomic and Demographic Dimensions of Urban Contradiction in Small Towns in Latvia

National ecological conservation versus local development: The triggering effects of forest transition on urban shrinkage

Urban shrinkage is currently spreading at global level. At the same time, the scale of urban shrinkage is not limited to urban agglomerations, metropolitan areas, or big cities, but begins to expand to a vast number of small towns. Over the years, the characteristics, models, and mechanisms of shrinkage in large cities have attracted the attention of scholars; however, the problem of shrinkage in small towns has not been fully discussed. In China, small towns are located at the margins of cities and are the first part of the countryside; hence, they are the link and the bridge between urban and rural areas, and a space carrier to solve the diseases of big cities and for rural rejuvenation as a whole. However, in the process of rapid urbanization, some small towns have experienced urban shrinkage, mainly through a decline in township enterprises and the deterioration of the living environment, which has restricted their role in coordinating the spatial support of urban and rural development. Therefore, a correct understanding of the shrinkage of small towns has considerable theoretical and practical guiding significance. We focused on the towns of the Jilin Province as the research unit, and combined township population, economy, land use, and employment indices to establish an urban shrinkage index, identifying the status, spatial distribution, and influencing factors of small towns shrinkage in the Jilin Province. Moreover, we analyzed the similarities and differences of small towns shrinkage between the Jilin Province and developed countries. The results show that small towns shrinkage in the Jilin Province shares similar characteristics with developed countries, as well as important differences in aspects such as population migration, low-level industrial structure, and administrative division adjustments.

Understanding patterns and multilevel influencing factors of small town shrinkage in Northeast China

Assessment of interactions between influencing factors on city shrinkage based on geographical detector: A case study in Kitakyushu, Japan

In the last decades of the 20th century, the patterns of urban shrinkage defined a worldwide phenomenon. They are visible in all developed regions, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, on the background of the economic growth trajectories and social health improvements. Despite this fact, the public discourse in a post-socialist country such as Romania is only focused on urban decline and its demographic dynamics sliding, when in fact urban shrinkage is more advanced, even to the point of becoming a selective phenomenon in developed countries such as The Netherlands. Our focus on urban shrinkage was driven by the fact that Romania can develop a policy framing regarding urban shrinkage, using example practices from a developed country such as The Netherlands. Moreover, it can learn how to deal with urban shrinkage effects by establishing certain differences which can cope with veritable lessons from both sides. This paper firstly investigates the urban shrinkage phenomenon observed in three cities in Romania and in three cities in The Netherlands. Secondly, it presents an analysis of demographic statistical data using the shift-and-share method to emphasize the persistence of urban shrinkage in the age structure of the total population of shrinking cities from both regions. Thirdly, it offers some lessons from both countries, finally presenting a mutual learning framework that can be applied to other regions in Europe.

Spatial-temporal evolution pattern of multidimensional urban shrinkage in China and its impact on urban form

EU post-socialist countries are nowadays the epicenter of urban shrinkage, despite economic growth trajectories reported during the last decades. However, systematic assessments of urban shrinkage patterns for this part of the continent are surprisingly insufficiently addressed in the literature, and the relationship between urban demographic decline/growth and economic decline/growth is still to be understood. This paper first delivers a state-of-the-art of the peculiarities of urban shrinkage in East-Central EU countries. Secondly, it employs an analysis grid to assess severity, prevalence, persistence, speed and regional incidence of urban decline in Romania—one of the most affected post-socialist countries within the European Union. Thirdly, it explores the statistical association between urban shrinkage severity and economic growth, on one hand, and between urban shrinkage severity and municipality revenues, on the other. Results show that urban shrinkage is currently increasing in prevalence and severity among Romanian cities, thus continuing an alarming trend that started in 1990. Secondly, the results pinpoint a statistically significant association between demographic shrinkage, local economic output and municipalities’ own-source revenues. However, the size effects are rather weak, suggesting a more nuanced relationship between economic and demographic urban growth than that predicted by some theories of urban change.

Serbian territorial policies actively supported small towns during the socialist period, fostering growth. However, the post-socialist transition brought socio-political changes, economic restructuring, and widespread depopulation. Subsequent territorial policies have largely neglected the development of small towns, resulting in urban shrinkage across much of the country. This paper examines the developmental challenges facing small towns in Serbia, focusing on their current position within national spatial policy and planning framework. Drawing on European spatial policy and theoretical insights, the research aims to: 1) identify the primary obstacles to development of small shrinking towns; and 2) explore potentials for policy improvement. The findings highlight the need for a more targeted and strategically aligned policy framework to revitalize Serbia’s small towns.

Climate change caused by CO2 emissions is a controversial topic in today’s society; improving CO2 emission efficiency (CEE) is an important way to reduce carbon emissions. While studies have often focused on areas with high carbon and large economies, the areas with persistent contraction have been neglected. These regions do not have high carbon emissions, but are facing a continuous decline in energy efficiency; therefore, it is of great relevance to explore the impact and mechanisms of CO2 emission efficiency in shrinking areas or shrinking cities. This paper uses a super-efficiency slacks-based measure (SBM) model to measure the CO2 emission efficiency and potential CO2 emission reduction (PCR) of 33 prefecture-level cities in northeast China from 2006 to 2019. For the first time, a Tobit model is used to analyze the factors influencing CEE, using the level of urban shrinkage as the core variable, with socio-economic indicators and urban construction indicators as control variables, while the mediating effect model is applied to identify the transmission mechanism of urban shrinkage. The results show that the CEE index of cities in northeast China is decreasing by 1.75% per annum. For every 1% increase in urban shrinkage, CEE decreased by approximately 2.1458%, with urban shrinkage, industrial structure, and expansion intensity index (EII) being the main factors influencing CEE. At the same time, urban shrinkage has a further dampening effect on CEE by reducing research and development expenditure (R&D) and urban compactness (COMP), with each 1% increase in urban shrinkage reducing R&D and COMP by approximately 0.534% and 1.233%, respectively. This can be improved by making full use of the available built-up space, increasing urban density, and promoting investment in research.

In many regions with long-term structural economic and demographic problems, small towns are shrinking as their urban centres, they are losing population, jobs, vibrancy and infrastructure. Yet, knowledge about their trajectories remains vague as studies on urban shrinkage have so far focused on large cities. When monitoring population change of small towns in Germany, there are ambiguous findings concerning their recent development: On the one hand, natural and migration balances were mostly negative and the population is ageing. On the other, they have become target locations of old-age in-migration. Hidden behind general demographic decline, the towns’ elderly populations are growing in relative and absolute terms. Our paper wants to shed light on these processes. It draws upon explorative empirical research in small towns in Germany. We will present, firstly, elderly’s motivations and actual relocation decisions. Secondly, we will show that these trends remain even largely out of sight of municipal decision makers. By way of conclusion, we argue that urban shrinkage is not a linear but rather a contingent process where overlapping trends, agencies and decisions of various actors together with the more fine-grained unevenness of spatial development can result in unexpected and ambivalent local trajectories.

Fujii E. T. and Mak J. (1980) Tourism and crime: implications for regional development policy, Reg. Studies 14, 27–36. This paper investigates the hypothesis that tourism generates environmental externalities in the form of increased crimes against persons and property using annual time series data over the period 1961–1975 and cross-section data for 1975 from the State of Hawaii. We find that an increase in the proportion of tourists in the population results in a significantly greater number of burglaries and rapes than a comparable increase in other population subgroups. The implications of the results for regional development planning of the visitor industry are then explored.

RAZIN E. (1990) Spatial variations in the Israeli small-business sector: implications for regional development policies, Reg. Studies 24, 149–162. An analysis of evolving spatial variations in self-employment in Israel is presented as an initial step in assessing opportunities for small-business oriented local development policies. The analysis includes the Jewish urban population and is based on data of the 1961, 1972 and 1983 censuses of population. Whereas the gap between metropolitan areas and non-metropolitan development towns in rates of self-employment narrowed substantially with time, differences in the industrial composition widened. Small-business opportunities in development towns were relatively few and mainly concentrated in non-growing blue-collar activities. Those in manufacturing and in business services were restricted by non-central location, whereas those in retail and construction were restricted by small size of local market, and limited local purchasing power. High levels of well-bei...

Urban shrinking is a phenomenon as common as urban expansion nowadays and it affects urban settlements of all sizes, especially from developed and industrialized countries in Europe, America and Asia. The paper aims to assess the patterns of shrinkage for small and medium sized towns in Oltenia region (Romania), considering demographic, economic and social indicators with a methodological approach which considers the use of different functions and applications of R packages. Thirteen selected indicators are analysed to perform the multivariate analysis on Principal Component Analysis using the prcomp() function and the [ggplot2](https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ggplot2) package to visualize the patterns of urban shrinkage. Two composite indicators were additionally created to measure the extent of urban shrinkage: CSI (Composite Shrinking Index) and RDC (Regional Demographic Change) for two-time intervals. Based on the CSI, three major categories of shrinking were observed: persistent shrinkage, mild shrinking or slow evolution toward shrinking, where the vast majority of towns are found (including mining towns, where there still is a delayed restructuring of state-owned enterprises, and towns characterised by the agrarization of local economies), and stagnant/stabilized shrinkage.

Urban shrinkage is a common phenomenon worldwide, but the relationship between the degree and spatial pattern of urban shrinkage is unclear. This paper takes the old northeastern industrial base, a region with a concentration of shrinking cities in China, as the study area. With the help of multi-source remote sensing images, this study first identified the degree and spatial pattern of urban shrinkage, and then investigated their relationship using the chi-square test. A total of 63 physical urban areas were identified as shrinking cities during the period 2013–2018. Among them, the proportion of cities with moderate and severe shrinking was relatively high. The spatial patterns of urban shrinkage are classified as central shrinkage, peripheral shrinkage, perforation shrinkage and global shrinkage. The results of the chi-square test proved that the spatial pattern and degree of urban shrinkage are correlated. Mild shrinkage was usually peripheral shrinkage; moderate shrinkage was usually central and perforation shrinkage; and severe shrinkage was usually global shrinkage. Identifying the degree and spatial pattern of urban shrinkage and investigating their relationship help deepen the understanding of the urban shrinkage phenomenon at a theoretical level and help urban planners and policy makers propose multidimensional strategies to alleviate the development dilemma of shrinking cities on a practical level.

Understanding the relationship between urban form and urban shrinkage is crucial for developing sustainable urban policies, particularly in medium-sized cities facing demographic and economic challenges. This study investigates the complex relationship between urban form and urban shrinkage in medium-sized Polish cities (population of 20,000 to 100,000), highlighting the implications for sustainability. Utilising a comprehensive multi-factor approach, it analyses the shrinkage and growth trends over 15 years (2006–2021) by establishing a shrinkage/growth score based on social, demographic, and economic factors for each city. It examines spatial aspects, particularly urban form compactness and population density, using Corine Land Cover (CLC) spatial data, making the methodology applicable to urban areas across Europe. The findings reveal no significant overall correlation between urban compactness and shrinkage/growth score across all cities. However, a positive correlation exists within “urban municipalities”, indicating that less compact urban areas tend to experience more shrinkage. Additionally, a temporary negative correlation between population density and shrinkage/growth score was observed from 2006 to 2016, which shifted to a positive trend in “urban municipalities” from 2016 to 2021. These results highlight urban shrinkage’s complex and dynamic nature and its potential ties to urban form. The study concludes with recommendations for urban policymakers and planners regarding compact and dense urban strategies to mitigate the adverse effects of shrinkage and enhance urban resilience and sustainability. While the trends change, the study highlights the need for further analysis of these relationships.