Abstract
AbstractExtreme flood events are becoming more frequent and challenging due to climate change. Key objectives of this study are to evaluate different criteria used in assessing the hazard to people during flood events and, once determined, the most suitable method is then used to assess the hazard and the safest route(s) for evacuation during a flood event and for a particular case study. The results of the application of two criteria are analysed in terms of the flood hazard assessment with the two criteria being based on a widely used empirical approach and a mechanics based approach. Both criteria are used to assess the flood hazard to people during an extreme flash flood, which occurred on 16th August 2004 in Boscastle (UK). Results obtained for this study have highlighted that the mechanics based criteria are preferable in identifying the ideal escape routes, when considering the flood characteristics and the corresponding response of a human body. The main novelty of this study lies in linking the flood hazard rating with the human body characteristics, when determining the safest route and with a revised formula being developed, which includes the effects of ground slope in the application to a real case study.
Highlights
River flooding is recognised as being one of the most devastating and frequently occurring natural disasters affecting the safety of people and communities
The aim of this paper is not to question any method currently used by authorities and practitioners, but to point out that there is still a need to improve on the assessment of flood hazard, especially when considering flash floods and extreme events
A comparison of the results based on using the two methods suggests that the mechanics based method, coupled with a methodology which considers the human body characteristics and Body Mass Index (BMI), should be preferred to the empirically based method
Summary
River flooding is recognised as being one of the most devastating and frequently occurring natural disasters affecting the safety of people and communities. Following the definition of the American Meteorological Society, flash floods can be defined as those floods with a rapid rise and fall, with little or no advance warning, occurring usually as a result of intense rainfall over a relatively small area (Mariani & Lastoria, 2011; Modrick & Georgakakos, 2015). Hydrological response, with the hydrographs that describe these events showing a short lag time This means that the flow peaks are reached within a few hours, leaving a very short warning time or, in some cases, virtually no time at all. The typical rapid occurrence and high intensity of such flood events, over a relatively small geographic area, means that this type of flood can be dangerous for the safety of people. It is estimated that 40% of the casualties due to flood events in Europe between 1950 and 2005 were caused by flash floods (Marchi et al, 2010)
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