Mapping Scenarios for the Netherlands in 2050

While governmental scientific advisers attempt to innovate their practices to become more reflexive and interactive, they cannot escape the modernist fundaments that constitute these practices. How do governmental scientific advisers make sense of this paradoxical situation? Using the transition process in the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency as a paradigmatic case, this article explores how four actor groups—the PBL management team, clients, PBL practitioners and external peers—involved in PBL’s transition process disclose their views on institutional redesign and, while doing that, express their beliefs on what they think scientific advice “is” and “should do”. Frame analysis identifies three coexisting frames of PBL’s (future) role and identity—PBL as integrated assessment specialist, PBL as think tank and PBL as trustworthy expert. Implicated in these frames are reflexive beliefs in a “professional culture of humility” that seem to replace the modernist “science speaking truth to power” mode of advising in the PBL organization. At the same time modernist beliefs in the science/politics demarcation, objectivity and scientific privilege persist, in part by revisiting them in view of the newly found reflexive principles of humility, transparency and deliberation. In conclusion, this empirical work illustrates how questioning and deliberating about the role and identity of one’s own organization is the first step to advance institutional redesign in scientific advice to governments. The challenge for governmental science advisers is to “translate” processes of institutional redesign into concrete social and cultural changes, bringing about a transformation in conceptions of what scientific advice is and should do all along. This article is published as part of a thematic collection on scientific advice to governments.

Modelling food demand in the 21st century

Wageningen Environmental Research and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency have developed MNP version 4.0 (Model for Nature Policy; MetaNatuurplanner) to determine the impacts of policy and management activities on biodiversity at the national and regional scale. The model predicts the persistence of species protected under nature policy by assessing the availability of sufficiently large connected areas of good habitat quality in the landscape . It does not assess the actual presence of these species. The model uses correlations between environmental, water and land use parameters and the sustainable conservation of biodiversity, and is used for identifying conflicts, policy evaluation and national and regional scenario studies. Results are aggregated to form indicators for Dutch and European policy. This report describes all the aspects of the model that are needed to obtain the Statutory Research Tasks Unit for Nature & the Environment quality status A for models. MNP will be further developed and validated in the coming years

This report is a translation of the Dutch report: Omgaan met zeer zorgwekkende stoffen in een circulaire economie (2019-0186). By 2050 the Dutch Government hopes to have a completely circular economy. An economy in which resources are continuously reused and with as little waste as possible. In a safe circular economy, risks to humans and the environment from hazardous substances in (recycled) materials are negligible. Substances of high concern, like those causing cancer for example, will only be used in materials and products when there are no known alternatives and their use is considered essential for the functioning of society. Substances of concern must not be released during production, use or re-use. RIVM believes that this transition to a circular economy provides opportunities to deal with substances of high concern safely, and to monitor their use. It is just not easy. RIVM has investigated what is needed to achieve this transition safely and has identified three challenges. First it is essential to share information about the substances used, including substances of high concern, throughout the product chain. Second, all parties in the product chain must ensure that materials and products can be reused safely. Producers should think about this at the design stage of their products. Users, (waste) processors and governments should also contribute. Finally, it's important that everyone involved deals responsibly with the materials and products that contain substances of high concern for which there is no alternative. Based on these three challenges, RIVM recommends possible actions for the short and longer term. For the short term, RIVM highlights the need to develop a policy vision and interim goals and to prioritise those products, materials and substances for which there is an urgent need to realise safe and circular product chains. These recommendations need to be developed further over the coming years and adapted to the rapidly changing demand for substances created, for example by technical innovation. Additionally, RIVM provides suggestions for monitoring whether reuse/recycling of substances of high concern during the transition to a circular economy is taking place safely. It is hoped that this report will offer some guidance and help to set an agenda for further debate between governments, companies, NGOs and research centres. This is a debate on policy, science and the monitoring of substances of high concern during the transition to a circular economy. This report was commissioned by PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency.

Together with PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Wageningen Environmental Research(WEnR) is developing BioScore, a biodiversity model to assess the impact of pressures like climate change,nitrogen deposition and land use change. This report highlights the selection and pre-processing proceduresof data concerning the distribution of plant species and habitat types as used in BioScore 3.0 to derive doseresponsefunctions. More than 4,500 European plant species were selected to derive a species setrepresentative for almost all terrestrial (semi)-natural EUNIS habitat types, complemented with ten mostcommon anthropogenic vegetation types (ruderal and arable). Data on distribution of these species wereselected from the European Vegetation Archive (EVA). In total 536,900 vegetation plots, covering the 4,500plant species were extracted from the database to serve as input for BioScore 3. To assess the reliability ofenvironmental responses of plant species, as retrieved from BioScore 3, a comparison has been made withpublished ecological indicator values (Ellenberg indicator values)

This chapter summarises the main findings of an international scientific audit of the Land Use Scanner and Environment Explorer models as described in the report of the audit committee (Timmermans, Batty, Couclelis & Wegener, 2007). Both models are part of the LUMOS toolbox maintained by the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency. The audit was based on a selection of documents (reports, conference papers and journal articles) related to these models, and a site visit at PBL that took place from 8 to 9 January 2007, during which a series of presentations about and software demonstrations of the models were given.

To inform the evaluation of the Nature Pact (Natuurpact) and the Assessment of the Dutch Human Environment (Balans van de Leefomgeving), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency needs a quantitative measure of the size and scope of green citizens’ initiatives and their impact. The need for this information reflects the ambition of many government authorities to bring the wider community, including individuals, into closer contact with nature and involve them more in nature policy. This report describes the results of a baseline assessment and pilot study to test the newly developed methodology for monitoring green citizens’ initiatives. Besides the results, the report includes several analyses based on the data and presents the main findings.

Navigating the authority paradox: Practising objectivity in environmental expertise

The PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency has a long tradition in land-use modelling. Indeed, the PBL has been putting spatially explicit models of land-use change into practice for almost 15 years The agency manages the Land Use MOdelling System (LUMOS) toolbox, which currently consists of two well-known models for simulating land-use change: Land Use Scanner and Environment Explorer; as well as a set of tools for pre- and post-processing of the modelling results, of the latter of which the Map Comparison Kit is an example.KeywordsSpatial PlanningLocal SuitabilityRegional DemandScanner ModelBusiness ParkThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

There is significant potential in young talent for enhancing the credibility of the scientific assessments such as the IPCC’s by contributing to quality assurance and quality control. In this essay, we reflect on an experiment that was done by the Dutch government as part of its government review of a contribution to the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). In an effort to review the entire Working Group II contribution to the AR5 within the official review period for the Second Order Draft (SOD), the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency turned to PhD students. This article shows that a systematic review focusing on transparency and errors of a large scientific assessment document using young talented scientists can be successful if certain conditions are met. The reviewers need to have intrinsic motivation to conduct the review. There needs to be a communication plan that fosters engagement and a clear methodology to guide the reviewers through their task. Based on this experiment in review, we reflect on the wider potential for openness and crowdsourcing in scientific assessment processes such as the IPCC’s.

Strategic freight transport models can be used for a quantitative analysis of long term forecasts. This paper discusses an analysis of the bandwidth of freight transport forecasts for The Netherlands with the strategic freight transport model ‘BasGoed’. This model was developed over the past years as a basic model, satisfying the needs of policy making, based on proven knowledge and available transport data. Starting point for the analysis are the long-term scenarios for The Netherlands developed recently by CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (WLO scenarios: Future outlook on welfare, prosperity and the human environment). The scenarios describe two base cases: The High and Low scenario. Both scenarios include a consistent set of assumptions on economic development (domestic growth by industry sector and international trade), infrastructure development, fuel prices, and logistic efficiency. The bandwidth of freight forecasts is further explored in five distinctive sensitivity analyses: different development in fuel prices, energy markets, CO2-pricing, dematerialization and modal shift in the port of Rotterdam. The sensitivity analysis provides more insight in the level of importance of each scenario assumption and it can be useful in estimating a bandwidth for freight transport demand. This is valuable in providing insight in the robustness of the freight transport forecasts for policy studies.

The reflective futures practitioner: Balancing salience, credibility and legitimacy in generating foresight knowledge with stakeholders

This book describes the extensive experience that PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and its partners have built up in more than a decade of using land-use models to support policy-making. The land-use models of PBL – Land Use Scanner and Environment Explorer – have in several large studies contributed substantially to the research findings and policy recommendations, making them a standard component of the analytical framework of outlooks where spatial dynamics are essential for sustainability and environmental quality in future. The performance of the models has been evaluated both by PBL and an audit committee of international experts; the findings of the committee are summarised in Chapter 2. The overall conclusion is that the models represent the state of the art for their current practice, but that to enlarge their potential contribution to policy questions and to address new policy challenges a substantial model redesign, or the development of a new model, is needed. Important challenges in doing so would be the inclusion of the behaviour of key actors in the model chain, the inclusion of essential feedback loops between different sectors and geographical scales, the structural inclusion of transport within the land-use model, and a better integration of water management and land use to be able to evaluate spatial adaptation strategies related to climate change. The insights from the different subject-specific research findings have been highlighted and processed to formulate several basic features to be included in the design of a new land-use modelling framework. In this final chapter, we describe the way forward for the development of such a land-use model. After an evaluation of achievements and drawbacks of the current model chain for the support of strategic policy questions, we discuss the ambitions and options for a new land-use model. Subsequently, the various activities carried out to arrive at the general specifications for the new model and the results achieved so far are highlighted.KeywordsHousing MarketAudit CommitteeSector ModelMicro ModelPolicy QuestionThese keywords were added by machine and not by the authors. This process is experimental and the keywords may be updated as the learning algorithm improves.

Buckley and Pegas claim that it would be politically difficult to reallocate agricultural subsidies to conservation. In our Report, we compare the economic costs of a strategy in which land is set aside for restoration to what is currently spent on agricultural subsidies. We do not suggest that agricultural subsidies be reallocated to conservation, but we also do not believe that such a strategy is improbable, as this has already been implemented in the United States ([ 1 ][1], [ 2 ][2]) and is currently being discussed in Europe ([ 3 ][3]). Buckley and Pegas then suggest that creating more Private Natural Heritage Reserves would be a more cost-effective strategy to protect the biodiverse regions of the Atlantic Forest. However, as we explained in our Report, preserving the Atlantic Forest is not enough; this biome needs to be restored to fully protect biodiversity. Private Natural Heritage Reserves are essentially a mechanism to preserve existing areas of pristine habitat inside private property and are only rarely used to set aside land to reforestation. The reserves are often managed to attract ecotourism, but it is unclear how degraded land undergoing restoration would serve such a purpose. Private Natural Heritage Reserves would protect additional, pristine land, but the most biodiverse regions of the Atlantic Forest are already protected. One of our main conclusions is that 30% is the minimum amount of habitat needed to preserve biodiversity, and that restoration should be focused on landscapes that currently have between 20 and 30% forest cover. To this end, the protection of remaining Atlantic forest areas through private or public reserves has to be complemented with incentives for forest restoration. 1. [↵][4] 1. S. S. Batie, 2. A. G. Sappington , Am. J. Agricult. Econ. 68, 880 (1986). [OpenUrl][5][CrossRef][6] 2. [↵][7] 1. R. A. Kramer, 2. S. S. Batie , Agricult. Hist. 59, 307 (1985). [OpenUrl][8] 3. [↵][9] 1. H. van Zeijts 2. et al ., Greening the Common Agricultural Policy: Impacts on Farmland Biodiversity on an EU Scale (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, 2011). [1]: #ref-1 [2]: #ref-2 [3]: #ref-3 [4]: #xref-ref-1-1 View reference 1 in text [5]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DAm.%2BJ.%2BAgricult.%2BEcon.%26rft.volume%253D68%26rft.spage%253D880%26rft_id%253Dinfo%253Adoi%252F10.2307%252F1242134%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [6]: /lookup/external-ref?access_num=10.2307/1242134&link_type=DOI [7]: #xref-ref-2-1 View reference 2 in text [8]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DAgricult.%2BHist.%26rft.volume%253D59%26rft.spage%253D307%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [9]: #xref-ref-3-1 View reference 3 in text

This paper introduces the EUREGIO database: the first time-series (annual, 2000-2010) of global IO tables with regional detail for the entire large trading bloc of the European Union. The construction of this database, which allows for regional analysis at the level of so-called NUTS2 regions, is presented in detail for its methodology and applications. The tables merge data from WIOD (the 2013 release) with, regional economic accounts, and interregional trade estimates developed by PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, complemented with survey-based regional input-output data for a limited number of countries. All used data are survey data and only non-behavioral assumptions have been made to estimate the EUREGIO dataset. These two general rules of data construction allow empirical analyses focused on impacts of changes in behavior (of economies, firms, policies) without endogenously having this behavior embedded already by construction. The tables are publicly available to the research community, from the Dutch government open data website. In this project, both a regional trade database, and production and consumption data of different actors in different regions, were used. The focus is thus intentionally on the regionalization of both trade and the regional use and supply of products by different economic actors. The paper is organized around the successive steps of the data construction: (1) adjustment of WIOD, (2) regional information, (3) Construction of tables, (4) conclusions on the usefulness of this type of regional IO tables with an overview of current applications of the EUREGIO database.