Mapping Climate Change Vulnerability of the Java Sea Ecosystem

Abstract

This present study aims to investigate climate change trends in the Java Sea and integrate these trends with the distribution of the lower trophic level of marine ecosystem parameters and the distribution of coastal ecosystems into a climate change vulnerability map using data products of wind, rainfall, sea surface temperature (SST), satellite imagery of Landsat TM and a coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model output. Climate change vulnerability mapping was conducted using a Geographic Information System (GIS), with a vulnerability equation from IPCC. This study shows that the high vulnerability is located in the southern coast of Kalimantan, Jakarta Bay, Semarang waters, and Madura Strait because of riverine inputs from human activities in the land and possible future worse conditions due to the positive rainfall trends in those regions. The low vulnerability is found in the northwestern and southeastern parts of the Java Sea associated with the negative trends of rainfall and SST. In general, the moderate vulnerability covers almost the entire Java Sea. This study suggests strengthening the coastal ecosystem through protection and rehabilitation in the future to enhance adaptive capacity. In addition, the organic and inorganic riverine inputs have to minimize, related to the positive trend of rainfall in the future, particularly those regions with high vulnerability. Integration of the spatial land model, the ocean model, and climate forcing are expected to improve our understandings of climate change vulnerability, which is relevant for climate adaptation action plans.