Abstract
The study aimed to find out possible changes in climatic data (temperature and rainfall) from the regional climate model viz. PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impact Studies)under different SRES scenarios (A1B, A2 and B2 scenario) by the mid (2021-2050) and end (2071-2100) century at six locations of Punjab representing different agroclimatic zones and to study their impact on maize yield using the crop growth simulation model.The results revealed that the different zones of the state are expected to bewarmer during the mid century and this trend has been projected to continue by the end of century because of increase in maximum and minimum temperature at all the locations.The CERES-Maize simulated significant decrease in duration and grain yield of maize crop under projected climate scenarios. The reduction in the crop duration and grain yield was found to be more under the A1B and A2 scenario (high emission scenario) followed by B2 scenario (low emission scenario)due to adverse effects on crop physiology.
Highlights
The anthropogenic activities such as deforestation, industrialization, fossil fuels etc. have resulted in imbalance of the atmospheric composition of the greenhouse gases (GHGs)
The reduction in the duration of the maize crop may be due to the increase in temperatures as compared to the baseline under the different scenarios
The A1B and A2 scenario predict more decrease in the duration of the crop as temperatures are relatively higher than baseline under this scenario as compared to other scenarios which may result in shortening to the various phenophases of the maize crop by the end of the 21st century
Summary
The anthropogenic activities such as deforestation, industrialization, fossil fuels etc. have resulted in imbalance of the atmospheric composition of the greenhouse gases (GHGs). Rupakumar et al (2006) simulated the local climatic conditions of India byusing PRECIS model for the baseline 1961–1990 as well as 2071-2100 under the SRES scenarios A2 and B2.Lunagaria et al (2011) validated PRECIS projection for baseline period in middle Gujarat. Navneet Kaur and Prabhjyot Kaur (2016) used PRECIS model to project climate at Ludhiana, Punjab, while Patel et al (2012) projected climate for different districts of Gujarat using PRECIS model. The crop growth simulation model have been widely used to assess the impact of climate change on different crops in India (Patel et al 2015; Yadav et al 2015). The present study is aimed to study the projected climate data in different parts of Punjab and their possible impact on maize yield
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