Machine learning-assisted assessment of key meteorological and crop factors affecting historical mulch pollution in China

Abstract

Degraded mulch pollution is of a great concern for agricultural soils. Although numerous studies have examined this issue from an environmental perspective, there is a lack of research focusing on crop-specific factors such as crop type. This study aimed to explore the correlation between meteorological and crop factors and mulch contamination. The first step was to estimate the amounts of mulch-derived microplastics (MPs) and phthalic acid esters (PAEs) during the rapid expansion period (1993–2012) of mulch usage in China. Subsequently, the Elastic Net (EN) and Random Forest (RF) models were employed to process a dataset that included meteorological, crop, and estimation data. At the national level, the RF model suggested that coldness in fall was crucial for MPs generation, while vegetables acted as a key factor for PAEs release. On a regional scale, the EN results showed that crops like vegetables, cotton, and peanuts remained significantly involved in PAEs contamination. As for MPs generation, coldness prevailed over all regions. Aridity became more critical for southern regions compared to northern regions due to solar radiation. Lastly, each region possessed specific crop types that could potentially influence its MPs contamination levels and provide guidance for developing sustainable ways to manage mulch contamination.