Machine learning predictions of code-based seismic vulnerability for reinforced concrete and masonry buildings: Insights from a 300-building database

Abstract

This paper proposes a data-driven model for predicting the code-based seismic vulnerability index calibrated on a dataset comprising almost 300 buildings. The vulnerability index, estimated following the Italian Seismic Code, involved rigorous investigations, including geometric surveys, experimental tests, and numerical modelling. Leveraging data from these investigations, encompassing approximately 15 categorical and numerical explanatory variables, the authors developed several regression and classification predictive models, such as Logistic Regression and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The optimal models perform binary classification to determine the categorization into two macro-classes, defined by an arbitrary vulnerability threshold. The ANN model stands out as the best performer. When adjusting the vulnerability threshold to obtain a balanced dataset, such a model achieves an accuracy higher than 85%. The paper also discusses the importance of each feature by calculating the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values. The proposed model can aid decision-makers in allocating resources effectively to mitigate seismic risks of built environments.