Machine learning prediction of food addiction in university students using demographic, anthropometric and personality traits.

BackgroundFood addiction, characterized by the compulsive consumption of highly palatable foods, poses significant health risks, particularly among university students. This study investigates the prevalence of food addiction among Bangladeshi university students and its associations with mental health (depression, anxiety, stress, and insomnia) and behavioral factors (smoking, drug, alcohol use, and pornography consumption). Machine learning (ML) models were applied to enhance predictive accuracy.MethodsA cross‐sectional survey was conducted among 1697 participants across two Bangladeshi universities. Food addiction was assessed using the Modified Yale Food Addiction Scale 2.0 (mYFAS 2.0). Associations were examined using logistic regression and subgroup analyses by gender. Six ML models—K‐nearest neighbors (KNN), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), gradient boosting machine (GBM), XGBoost, and CatBoost—were employed to improve classification performance.ResultsOverall, 13% of students met the criteria for food addiction, with higher prevalence among males (14.8%) than females (10.4%). In adjusted models, anxiety (AOR = 2.44, 95% CI: 1.43–4.16), stress (AOR = 1.74, 95% CI: 1.18–2.58), and pornography use (AOR = 1.74, 95% CI: 1.12–2.69) were significant predictors. Subgroup analyses showed that anxiety, stress, and pornography use were significant predictors only among males. Among ML models, KNN achieved the highest accuracy (85.3%), while RF demonstrated the best AUC‐ROC (0.697), confirming their utility in identifying at‐risk individuals.ConclusionsFood addiction affects a notable proportion of Bangladeshi university students and is strongly linked with anxiety, stress, and pornography use, particularly among males. Interventions should include cognitive‐behavioral therapy and stress management programs, digital hygiene education, and nutritional counseling tailored to student populations. ML‐based predictive models, such as RF and CatBoost, may be integrated into campus health systems to support early identification and personalized interventions.

Chronic pain around the temporomandibular joint (TMJ) and masticatory muscles is a primary symptom of temporomandibular disorders (TMD). However, the clinical significance of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) features in predicting TMD-related pain remains unclear. This study aimed to develop and interpret machine learning (ML) models based on MRI characteristics for predicting pain severity in patients with TMD. The present retrospective study included 584 patients with TMD between January 2022 and December 2024, yielding a total of 755 TMJ MRI data sets. Pain severity was classified using the visual analogue scale (VAS). Demographic variables (age, sex) and MRI features-including lesion side, disc position, disc morphology, disc signal, disc perforation, bilaminar zone tear, joint space, joint effusion, condylar movement, bony changes and morphology/signal of the lateral pterygoid muscle-were collected. Eleven ML models based on demographic and MRI features were developed: logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), light gradient boosting machine (LightGBM), adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), gradient boosting classifier (GBC), bagging classifier (BC), extremely randomised trees (ETC), decision tree classifier (DTC) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). Model performance was evaluated using multiple metrics, including the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), accuracy, sensitivity, specificity and F1 score. Precision-recall (PR) curves and calibration curves were plotted to assess discrimination and model calibration. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was conducted to evaluate the clinical net benefit across a range of threshold probabilities. Model interpretability was enhanced using Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP), which quantified the contribution of each feature to individual predictions. Feature selection was conducted based on mean SHAP values, and separate LightGBM models were constructed using the Top 3, 5, and 9 most important features, as well as the full-feature set, for performance comparison. The data set was randomly divided into a training set (n = 604) and a test set (n = 151). Among the 11 ML models, the LightGBM model demonstrated the best predictive performance, with an AUC of 0.899, and was therefore identified as the optimal model. SHAP analysis identified age, disc position and condylar movement as the top three contributing features. Feature selection analysis indicated that selecting the top nine SHAP-ranked variables led to the highest diagnostic performance, with an AUC of 0.829. This study developed an interpretable, high-performing MRI-based ML model incorporating SHAP analysis to integrate imaging and clinical features for objective pain assessment, which may help identify high-risk TMD patients and guide personalised treatment strategies.

To develop and validate an explainable machine learning (ML) model predicting the risk of hemorrhagic transformation (HT) after intravenous thrombolysis. We retrospectively enrolled patients who received intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (IV-tPA) thrombolysis within 4.5 h after symptom onset to form the original modeling cohort. HT was defined as any hemorrhage on head CT scan completed within 48 h after IV-tPA administration. We utilized the Random Forest (RF), Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), and Gaussian Naive Bayes (GauNB) algorithms to develop ML-HT models. The models' predictive performance was evaluated using confusion matrix (including accuracy, precision, recall, and F1 score), and discriminative analysis (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve, ROC-AUC) in the original cohort, followed by validation in an independent external cohort. The models' explainability was assessed using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) global feature plot, SHAP Summary Plot, and Partial Dependence Plot. A total of 1,007 patients were included in the original modeling cohort, with an HT incidence of 8.94%. The RF-based ML-HT model showed metrics of 0.874 (accuracy), 0.972 (precision), 0.890 (recall), 0.929 (F1 score); with ROC-AUC of 0.7847 in the original cohort and 0.7119 in the external validation cohort. The MLP model showed 0.878, 0.967, 0.989, 0.978, 0.7710, and 0.6768, respectively. The AdaBoost model showed 0.907, 0.967, 0.989, 0.978, 0.7798, and 0.6606, respectively. The GauNB model showed 0.848, 0.983, 0.598, 0.716, 0.6953, and 0.6289, respectively. The explainable analysis of the RF-based ML model indicated that the National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score, age, platelet count, and atrial fibrillation were the primary determinants for HT following IV-tPA thrombolysis. The RF-based explainable ML model demonstrated promising predictive ability for estimating the risk of HT after IV-tPA thrombolysis and may have the potential to assist the clinical decision-making in emergency settings.

The objective of this study is to develop accurate machine learning (ML) models for predicting the neurological status at hospital discharge of critically ill patients with hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke and identify the risk factors associated with the neurological outcome of stroke, thereby providing healthcare professionals with enhanced clinical decision-making guidance. Data of stroke patients were extracted from the eICU Collaborative Research Database (eICU-CRD) for training and testing sets and the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV (MIMIC IV) database for external validation. Four machine learning models, namely gradient boosting classifier (GBC), logistic regression (LR), multi-layer perceptron (MLP), and random forest (RF), were used for prediction of neurological outcome. Furthermore, shapley additive explanations (SHAP) algorithm was applied to explain models visually. A total of 1,216 hemorrhagic stroke patients and 954 ischemic stroke patients from eICU-CRD and 921 hemorrhagic stroke patients 902 ischemic stroke patients from MIMIC IV were included in this study. In the hemorrhagic stroke cohort, the LR model achieved the highest area under curve (AUC) of 0.887 in the test cohort, while in the ischemic stroke cohort, the RF model demonstrated the best performance with an AUC of 0.867 in the test cohort. Further analysis of risk factors was conducted using SHAP analysis and the results of this study were converted into an online prediction tool. ML models are reliable tools for predicting hemorrhagic and ischemic stroke neurological outcome and have the potential to improve critical care of stroke patients. The summarized risk factors obtained from SHAP enable a more nuanced understanding of the reasoning behind prediction outcomes and the optimization of the treatment strategy.

Mapping and modeling groundwater potential using machine learning, deep learning and ensemble learning models in the Saiss basin (Fez-Meknes region, Morocco)

Factors contributing to the development of hypertension exhibit significant variations across countries and regions. Our objective was to predict individuals at risk of developing hypertension within a 5-year period in a rural Middle Eastern area. This longitudinal study utilized data from the Fasa Adults Cohort Study (FACS). The study initially included 10,118 participants aged 35-70 years in rural districts of Fasa, Iran, with a follow-up of 3,000 participants after 5 years using random sampling. A total of 160 variables were included in the machine learning (ML) models, and feature scaling and one-hot encoding were employed for data processing. Ten supervised ML algorithms were utilized, namely logistic regression (LR), support vector machine (SVM), random forest (RF), Gaussian naive Bayes (GNB), linear discriminant analysis (LDA), k-nearest neighbors (KNN), gradient boosting machine (GBM), extreme gradient boosting (XGB), cat boost (CAT), and light gradient boosting machine (LGBM). Hyperparameter tuning was performed using various combinations of hyperparameters to identify the optimal model. Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technology (SMOTE) was used to balance the training data, and feature selection was conducted using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP). Out of 2,288 participants who met the criteria, 251 individuals (10.9%) were diagnosed with new hypertension. The LGBM model (determined to be the optimal model) with the top 30 features achieved an AUC of 0.67, an f1-score of 0.23, and an AUC-PR of 0.26. The top three predictors of hypertension were baseline systolic blood pressure (SBP), gender, and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), with AUCs of 0.66, 0.58, and 0.63, respectively. Hematuria in urine tests and family history of hypertension ranked fourth and fifth. ML models have the potential to be valuable decision-making tools in evaluating the need for early lifestyle modification or medical intervention in individuals at risk of developing hypertension.

Postoperative gastrointestinal bleeding (GIB) is a rare but serious complication of bariatric surgery. The recent rise in extended venous thromboembolism regimens as well as outpatient bariatric surgery may increase the risk of postoperative GIB or lead to delay in diagnosis. This study seeks to use machine learning (ML) to create a model that predicts postoperative GIB to aid surgeon decision-making and improve patient counseling for postoperative bleeds. The Metabolic and Bariatric Surgery Accreditation and Quality Improvement Program (MBSAQIP) database was used to train and validate three types of ML methods: random forest (RF), gradient boosting (XGB), and deep neural networks (NN), and compare them with logistic regression (LR) regarding postoperative GIB. The dataset was split using fivefold cross-validation into training and validation sets, in an 80/20 ratio. The performance of the models was assessed using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and compared with the DeLong test. Variables with the strongest effect were identified using Shapley additive explanations (SHAP). The study included 159,959 patients. Postoperative GIB was identified in 632 (0.4%) patients. The three ML methods, RF (AUROC 0.764), XGB (AUROC 0.746), and NN (AUROC 0.741) all outperformed LR (AUROC 0.709). The best ML method, RF, was able to predict postoperative GIB with a specificity and sensitivity of 70.0% and 75.4%, respectively. Using DeLong testing, the difference between RF and LR was determined to be significant with p < 0.01. Type of bariatric surgery, pre-op hematocrit, age, duration of procedure, and pre-op creatinine were the 5 most important features identified by ML retrospectively. We have developed a ML model that outperformed LR in predicting postoperative GIB. Using ML models for risk prediction can be a helpful tool for both surgeons and patients undergoing bariatric procedures but more interpretable models are needed.

BackgroundEmergency admissions are a major source of healthcare spending. We aimed to derive, validate, and compare conventional and machine learning models for prediction of the first emergency admission. Machine learning methods are capable of capturing complex interactions that are likely to be present when predicting less specific outcomes, such as this one.Methods and findingsWe used longitudinal data from linked electronic health records of 4.6 million patients aged 18–100 years from 389 practices across England between 1985 to 2015. The population was divided into a derivation cohort (80%, 3.75 million patients from 300 general practices) and a validation cohort (20%, 0.88 million patients from 89 general practices) from geographically distinct regions with different risk levels. We first replicated a previously reported Cox proportional hazards (CPH) model for prediction of the risk of the first emergency admission up to 24 months after baseline. This reference model was then compared with 2 machine learning models, random forest (RF) and gradient boosting classifier (GBC). The initial set of predictors for all models included 43 variables, including patient demographics, lifestyle factors, laboratory tests, currently prescribed medications, selected morbidities, and previous emergency admissions. We then added 13 more variables (marital status, prior general practice visits, and 11 additional morbidities), and also enriched all variables by incorporating temporal information whenever possible (e.g., time since first diagnosis). We also varied the prediction windows to 12, 36, 48, and 60 months after baseline and compared model performances. For internal validation, we used 5-fold cross-validation. When the initial set of variables was used, GBC outperformed RF and CPH, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.779 (95% CI 0.777, 0.781), compared to 0.752 (95% CI 0.751, 0.753) and 0.740 (95% CI 0.739, 0.741), respectively. In external validation, we observed an AUC of 0.796, 0.736, and 0.736 for GBC, RF, and CPH, respectively. The addition of temporal information improved AUC across all models. In internal validation, the AUC rose to 0.848 (95% CI 0.847, 0.849), 0.825 (95% CI 0.824, 0.826), and 0.805 (95% CI 0.804, 0.806) for GBC, RF, and CPH, respectively, while the AUC in external validation rose to 0.826, 0.810, and 0.788, respectively. This enhancement also resulted in robust predictions for longer time horizons, with AUC values remaining at similar levels across all models. Overall, compared to the baseline reference CPH model, the final GBC model showed a 10.8% higher AUC (0.848 compared to 0.740) for prediction of risk of emergency admission within 24 months. GBC also showed the best calibration throughout the risk spectrum. Despite the wide range of variables included in models, our study was still limited by the number of variables included; inclusion of more variables could have further improved model performances.ConclusionsThe use of machine learning and addition of temporal information led to substantially improved discrimination and calibration for predicting the risk of emergency admission. Model performance remained stable across a range of prediction time windows and when externally validated. These findings support the potential of incorporating machine learning models into electronic health records to inform care and service planning.

The number of deaths from cardiovascular disease is projected to reach 23.3 million by 2030. As a contribution to preventing this phenomenon, this paper proposed a machine learning (ML) model to predict patients with arteriosclerotic heart disease (AHD). We also interpreted the prediction model results based on the ML approach and deployed modelagnostic ML methods to identify informative features and their interpretations. We used a hematology Electronic Health Record (EHR) with information on erythrocytes, hematocrit, hemoglobin, mean corpuscular hemoglobin, mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration, leukocytes, thrombocytes, age, and sex. To detect and predict AHD, we explored random forest (RF), XGBoost, and AdaBoost models. We examined the prediction model results based on the confusion matrix and accuracy measures. We used the Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) framework to interpret the ML model and quantify the contribution of features to predictions. Our study included data from 6,837 patients, with 4,702 records from patients diagnosed with AHD and 2,135 records from patients without an AHD diagnosis. AdaBoost outperformed RF and XGBoost, achieving an accuracy of 0.78, precision of 0.82, F1-score of 0.85, and recall of 0.88. According to the SHAP summary bar plot method, hemoglobin was the most important attribute for detecting and predicting AHD patients. The SHAP local interpretability bar plot revealed that hemoglobin and mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration had positive impacts on AHD prediction based on a single observation. ML models based on real clinical data can be used to predict AHD.

Optimisation and interpretation of machine and deep learning models for improved water quality management in Lake Loktak

BackgroundThe study aimed to develop interpretable machine learning models for the identification of idiopathic central precocious puberty (ICPP) in girls, without the need for the expensive and time-consuming gonadotropin-releasing hormone (GnRH) stimulation test, which is currently the gold standard for diagnosing ICPP.MethodsA total of 246 female paediatric patients who had secondary sexual characteristics before 8 years old and had taken a GnRH stimulation test were randomly divided into a training set (172 patients, 70%) and a validation set (74 patients, 30%). Characteristic parameters were extracted from easily available clinical data and were statistically analysed. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) method was used to select essential characteristic parameters associated with ICPP and were used to construct logistic regression (LR) and five machine learning (ML) models, including support vector machine (SVM), Gaussian naive bayes (GaussianNB), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), and k- nearest neighbor algorithm (kNN). Then, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), sensitivity, specificity, false positive and negative values, Youden’s index, accuracy, positive and negative likelihood ratios, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the models’ effectiveness. Finally, the shapley additive explanations (SHAP) package was used to interpret the best-performing model.ResultsFour essential characteristic parameters, namely uterine volume, bone age/chronological age (BA/CA), basal follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), and basal luteinizing hormone (LH), were selected using the LASSO method. Based on these characteristic parameters, the LR and five machine learning models achieved AUC values ranging from 0.72 to 0.96 in the training set and AUC values ranging from 0.65 to 0.90 in the validation set for diagnosing ICPP. Among the LR and five machine learning models, the XGBoost model demonstrated superior performance, achieving the highest AUC values, accuracy, specificity, and sensitivity in both the training and validation sets. Moreover, calibration plots and DCA confirmed that this model exhibited the best calibration and clinical utility.ConclusionsAn accurate and interpretable ML-based model has been developed to aid clinicians in the diagnosis of ICPP, assisting in clinical decision-making.

Early prediction of heart failure (HF) after acute myocardial infarction (AMI) is essential for personalized treatment. We aimed to use interpretable machine learning (ML) methods to develop a risk prediction model for HF in AMI patients. We retrospectively included patients initially with AMI who received percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in our hospital from November 2016 to February 2020. The primary endpoint was the occurrence of HF within 3 years after operation. For developing a predictive model for HF risk in AMI patients, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Regression was used to feature selection, and four ML algorithms including Random Forest (RF), Extreme Gradient Boost (XGBoost), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Logistic Regression (LR) were employed to develop the model on the training set. The performance evaluation of the prediction model was carried out on the training set and the testing set, utilizing metrics including AUC (Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve), calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA). In addition, we used the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) value to determine the importance of the selected features and interpret the optimal model. A total of 1220 AMI patients were included and 244 (20%) patients developed HF during follow-up. Among the four evaluated ML models, the XGBoost model exhibited exceptional accuracy, with an AUC value of 0.922. The SHAP method showed that left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF), left ventricular end-systolic diameter (LVDs) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) were identified as the three most important characteristics to predict HF risk in AMI patients. Individual risk assessment was performed using SHAP plots and waterfall plot analysis. Our research demonstrates the potential of ML methods in the early prediction of HF risk in AMI patients. Furthermore, it enhances the interpretability of the XGBoost model through SHAP analysis to guide clinical decision-making.

We sought to develop and validate a machine learning (ML) model for predicting multidimensional frailty based on clinical and laboratory data. Moreover, an explainable ML model utilizing SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) was constructed. This study enrolled 622 patients hospitalized due to decompensating episodes at a tertiary hospital. The cohort data were randomly divided into training and test sets. External validation was carried out using 131 patients from other tertiary hospitals. The frail phenotype was defined according to a self-reported questionnaire (Frailty Index). The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve was adopted to compare the performance of five ML models. The importance of the features and interpretation of the ML models were determined using the SHAP method. The proportions of cirrhotic patients with nonfrail and frail phenotypes in combined training and test sets were 87.8% and 12.2%, respectively, while they were 88.5% and 11.5% in the external validation dataset. Five ML algorithms were used, and the random forest (RF) model exhibited substantially predictive performance. Regarding the external validation, the RF algorithm outperformed other ML models. Moreover, the SHAP method demonstrated that neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, age, lymphocyte-to-monocyte ratio, ascites, and albumin served as the most important predictors for frailty. At the patient level, the SHAP force plot and decision plot exhibited a clinically meaningful explanation of the RF algorithm. We constructed an ML model (RF) providing accurate prediction of frail phenotype in decompensated cirrhosis. The explainability and generalizability may foster clinicians to understand contributors to this physiologically vulnerable situation and tailor interventions.

Background/Objectives: Conventional logistic regression is widely used in the field of dentistry, specifically for prediction purposes in longitudinal studies. This study aimed to compare the validity of different supervised machine learning (ML) models to the conventional logistic regression (LR) model to predict the outcomes of nonsurgical periodontal treatment (NSPT). Methods: Patients diagnosed with periodontitis received full periodontal charting, including bleeding on probing (BoP), probing pocket depth (PPD), and clinical attachment loss (CAL). Furthermore, the tooth type, tooth location, tooth surface, arch type, and gingival phenotype were also collected as site-specific predictors. Later, root surface debridement was provided and treatment outcomes were evaluated after 3 months. Site-specific predictors were used to train five ML models, including random forest (RF), decision tree (DT), support vector classifier (SVC), K-nearest neighbors (KNN), and Gaussian naïve Bayes (GNB), to develop predictive models. Results: Site-specific predictors of 1108 examined sites were used, and the overall accuracy prediction of the conventional LR model was 70.4%, with PPD statistically significantly associated with the outcome of NSPT (odds ratio = 0.577, p = 0.001). Among the ML models examined, only GNB and SVC showed comparable prediction accuracy (71.0% and 70.4%, respectively) to the LR model, whereas the prediction accuracies of KNN, RF, and DT were 65.0%, 62.0%, and 61.0%, respectively. Similarly, baseline PPD was shown to be the most important featured predictor by both the RF and DT models. Conclusions: The evidence suggests that supervised ML models do not outperform the LR model in predicting the outcomes of NSPT. A larger sample size and more predictors of periodontitis are necessary to enhance the accuracy of ML models over the LR model in predicting the outcomes of NSPT.

Lung cancer remains the leading cause of cancer-related incidence and mortality worldwide. Its tendency for postoperative distant metastasis significantly compromises long-term prognosis and survival. Accurately predicting the metastatic potential in a timely manner is crucial for formulating optimal treatment strategies. This study aimed to comprehensively compare the predictive performance of nine machine learning (ML) models and to enhance interpretability through SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations), with the goal of developing a practical and transparent risk stratification tool for postoperative lung cancer management. Clinical data from 3,120 patients with stage I-III lung cancer who underwent radical surgery were retrospectively collected and randomly divided into training and testing cohorts. A total of 52 clinical, pathological, imaging, and laboratory variables were analyzed. Nine ML models-including eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Random Forest (RF), Light Gradient Boosting Machine (LightGBM), Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), Decision Tree (DT), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), Complement Naive Bayes (CNB), and Multilayer Perceptron classifier (MLP)-were developed and evaluated. Model performance was assessed using accuracy, precision, recall, F1 score, ROC-AUC, PR-AUC, calibration, and decision curve analysis (DCA). All models were evaluated using nested cross-validation (outer stratified 70/30 splits repeated 10 times; inner fivefold tuning), with decision thresholds prespecified in the inner loop and applied unchanged to held-out tests. Given the approximately 4:1 class imbalance, cost-sensitive learning was primarily adopted, and PR-AUC was reported in addition to ROC-AUC. Among the nine models, GBDT demonstrated the highest predictive performance, achieving an AUC of 0.810 (95% CI: 0.748-0.872), accuracy of 0.766, sensitivity of 0.698, and specificity of 0.786 in the test set. SHAP analysis revealed that adjuvant chemotherapy, adjuvant radiotherapy, pathological N stage, age, body mass index (BMI), and preoperative neutrophil count (Pre-ANC) were the most influential predictors of distant metastasis. The combination of model performance and interpretability supported the model's potential for integration into clinical workflows to assist in real-time decision-making. In this work, we carried out a systematic comparison of nine machine learning algorithms in a large postoperative cohort under a coherent and interpretable framework. By jointly considering discrimination, calibration, clinical benefit (via decision curve analysis), and SHAP-based explanations, we constructed a practical prognostic tool to guide personalized treatment strategies and follow-up care. This methodology offers a data-driven basis for precision management. Ultimately, our findings provide an internally validated reference framework that warrants external and multicenter validation prior to clinical deployment.