Machine learning-based risk prediction model construction of difficult weaning in ICU patients with mechanical ventilation

Abstract

In intensive care unit (ICU) patients undergoing mechanical ventilation (MV), the occurrence of difficult weaning contributes to increased ventilator-related complications, prolonged hospitalization duration, and a significant rise in healthcare costs. Therefore, early identification of influencing factors and prediction of patients at risk of difficult weaning can facilitate early intervention and preventive measures. This study aimed to strengthen airway management for ICU patients by constructing a risk prediction model with comprehensive and individualized offline programs based on machine learning techniques. This study involved the collection of data from 487 patients undergoing MV in the ICU, with a total of 36 variables recorded. The dataset was divided into a training set (70% of the data) and a test set (30% of the data). Five machine learning models, namely logistic regression, random forest, support vector machine, light gradient boosting machine, and extreme gradient boosting, were compared to predict the risk of difficult weaning in ICU patients with MV. Significant influencing factors were identified based on the results of these models, and a risk prediction model for ICU patients with MV was established. When evaluating the models using AUC (Area under the Curve of ROC) and Accuracy as performance metrics, the Random Forest algorithm exhibited the best performance among the five machine learning algorithms. The area under the operating characteristic curve for the subjects was 0.805, with an accuracy of 0.748, recall (0.888), specificity (0.767) and F1 score (0.825). This study successfully developed a risk prediction model for ICU patients with MV using a machine learning algorithm. The Random Forest algorithm demonstrated the highest prediction performance. These findings can assist clinicians in accurately assessing the risk of difficult weaning in patients and formulating effective individualized treatment plans. Ultimately, this can help reduce the risk of difficult weaning and improve the quality of life for patients.