Lung cancer deaths attributable to ambient PM(2.5) exposure in 2016 in China

Abstract

Objective: To analyze the lung cancer deaths attributable to ambient PM(2.5) exposure in China in 2016. Methods: All data were from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 (GBD 2016). Multiple-source data, including satellite observation, ground measurement, chemical migration model simulation, etc., and the data integration model for air quality (DIMAQ) were used to estimate the grid-level exposure to ambient PM(2.5). Data from the vital registry and cancer registry were used to establish statistical model to estimate the lung cancer deaths by province, age and gender. The lung cancer deaths attributable to PM(2.5) were calculated based on the calculation of population attributable fraction (PAF). The GBD world population age structure was adopted to calculate age-standardized rates for comparison among provinces (including 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government, as well as Hong Kong and Macao special administrative regions, excluding Taiwan of China). Results: In 2016, the lung cancer deaths attributable to ambient PM(2.5) exposure in China were 14.56×10(4) (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 9.63×10(4)-19.55×10(4)), accounting for 24.66% (95%UI: 16.38%-33.12%) of total lung cancer deaths. The lung cancer death rate attributable to PM(2.5) increased with age, with the lowest among 25-29 age group (0.25/10(5), 95%UI: 0.17/10(5)-0.34/10(5)), the highest among ≥80 age group (90.70/10(5), 95%UI: 59.85/10(5)-122.20/10(5)). The lung cancer death rate attributable to PM(2.5) among males (14.84/10(5), 95%UI: 9.78/10(5)-19.93/10(5)) was higher than that in females (6.21/10(5), 95%UI: 4.07/10(5)-8.40/10(5)). The age-standardized death rates (ASDR) of lung cancer attributable to PM(2.5) among males and females in China were higher than the global average level. The attributable ASDR of lung cancer varied among provinces, highest in Shandong (13.51/10(5), 95%UI: 9.14/10(5)-18.20/10(5)) and lowest in Tibet (0.85/10(5), 95%UI: 0.44/10(5)-1.51/10(5)). Conclusion: In 2016, the lung cancer deaths attributable to ambient PM(2.5) exposure in China was heavy, and varied in different age groups, genders and provinces.