<b>TRANSFORMASI DATA TRANSAKSI KE DERET WAKTU DAN EVALUASI MODEL PERAMALAN PERMINTAAN PADA MARKETPLACE PLAZA BANTEN</b>

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Plaza Banten, an MSME marketplace in Banten Province, generates ordering and sales transaction data that can be leveraged to support operational decisions, particularly inventory planning and promotional timing. However, decision-making is often reactive because demand forecasting has not been systematically developed from historical transactions. This study proposes an end-to-end pipeline that transforms Plaza Banten transaction records into daily demand time-series data at the product-category (Group) level, following data preparation and modeling stages in a data mining framework. The study uses transaction data from January to December 2024 and is positioned as a continuation of a previous Market Basket Analysis (MBA) study, which indicated that high transaction volumes were dominated by packaged rice products (e.g., rice boxes and chicken rice packages), motivating a forecasting follow-up for high-demand categories with recurring purchase patterns. The preprocessing stage includes data cleaning, validation of quantity and unit price, feature construction (quantity and revenue), daily demand aggregation by category, and completion of missing calendar dates to form continuous time series. For modeling, this study compares baseline forecasting methods (Naïve and 7-day Moving Average) against an Exponential Smoothing (Holt–Winters/ETS) model that accounts for trend and weekly seasonality. Model performance is evaluated using MAE, RMSE, and MAPE to ensure measurable selection of the best approach. The forecasting results are then interpreted as operational insights to estimate demand levels per category and support inventory planning and promotional prioritization based on predicted demand trends.

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212 Mart Rambutan Street on Pekanbaru City is a company engaged in retail. Meeting the needs of consumers and making the right decision in determining the sales strategy is a must. One way to find out market conditions is to observe sales transaction data using data mining. The data mining method commonly used to analyze market basket (Market Basket Analysis) is the Association Rule. The Association Rule can provide product recommendations and promotions, so that the marketing strategy is more targeted and the items promoted are the customer's needs. At 212 Mart, the determination of product promotion is obtained from the analysis of sales transaction data reports, which are based on the most sold products and the expiration date. Often the product being promoted does not fit the customer's needs. The purpose of this study is to apply the K-Medoids algorithm for clustering on FP-Growth in producing product recommendation rules on a large number of datasets so that they can provide technical recommendations / new ways to the 212 Mart in determining product promotions. The results obtained are from the experiments the number of clusters 3 to 9 obtained optimal clusters of 3 clusters based on the validity test of the Davies Bouldin Index with a value of 0.678. With a minimum support value of 5% - 9% and a minimum value of 50% confidence, the result is that the Association Rule is found only in cluster 3 with 5 rules.

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Market Basket Analysis often involves applying the de facto association rule mining method on massive sales transaction data. In this paper, we argue that association rule mining is not always the most suitable method for analysing big market-basket data. This is because the data matrix to be used for association rule mining is usually large and sparse, resulting in sluggish generation of many trivial rules with little insight. To address this problem, we summarise a real-world sales transaction data set into time series format. We then use time series clustering to discover commonly purchased items that are useful for pricing or formulating cross-selling strategies. We show that this approach uses a data set that is substantially smaller than the data to be used for association analysis. In addition, it reveals significant patterns and insights that are otherwise hard to uncover when using association analysis.

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