Abstract
<p>A study of long term shift of the daily rainfall over the Brantas catchment East Java was done. Such a study is relatively new for the country due to lack of good quality data and sparsely distributed data all over the region. With a good quality long-term daily rainfall data over the Brantas catchment, we could detect a statistical shift of amount of rainy days, shift between periods and frequency trend changes from weekly, monthly, three-monthly and annually. The study utilized several methods including the probability density function distribution shift, Mann Kendall non parametric trend test and the wavelet analyses. The shift of low amount rainfall occurs from the dry to the wet season. We found distinct influences of orography and ENSO years in our trend tests. Additionally, the result of the Mann Kendall test show that the trend of rainy days increase during the wet season and the second transition period, while decrease during the dry season and first transitional period. Meanwhile the El Nino and La Nina have significant influence toward the dry season and the second transitional period.</p>
Highlights
In the late 18th century, Arrhenius (1896) was the first to quantify the contribution of carbon dioxide to the greenhouse effect and to speculate about whether variations in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide have contributed to long-term variations in climate
Some of the impact of the global climate change is a change of rainfall pattern on a local or a regional scale such as the regime shift of the daily rainfall pattern
Has the daily rainfall pattern been changed as predicted over this region or has the rainfall regime shift has not been noticead? Such a question is very important nowadays, since during past decades, climate and weather is highly unpredictable and extremes such as drought and flood occur quite often
Summary
In the late 18th century, Arrhenius (1896) was the first to quantify the contribution of carbon dioxide to the greenhouse effect and to speculate about whether variations in the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide have contributed to long-term variations in climate. Long term study of rainfall variability and its change due to global climate change for local climate over the maritime continent has been quite rare. Some of the impact of the global climate change is a change of rainfall pattern on a local or a regional scale such as the regime shift of the daily rainfall pattern. Has the daily rainfall pattern been changed as predicted over this region or has the rainfall regime shift has not been noticead? Has the daily rainfall pattern been changed as predicted over this region or has the rainfall regime shift has not been noticead? Such a question is very important nowadays, since during past decades, climate and weather is highly unpredictable and extremes such as drought and flood occur quite often
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