Abstract
Abstract This study examines the month-to-month variations in the tracks of Southern Hemisphere weather systems and their relation to low-frequency circulation variability. Cyclones and anticyclones are identified and tracked from ECMWF analyses during 1980–94 via an automated method and the principal patterns of variation identified by EOF analysis of monthly track density anomaly fields. Only the first three EOFs of cyclone track density involving about one-third of the total track variance were distinguishable from noise. Spatial patterns derived from both unrotated and rotated EOF analysis were not reproducible on subsets of the data, pointing to secular changes in the variance structure of the cyclone dataset. An increase in cyclone numbers over the Southern Ocean during the 1980s suggested that detection of small-scale cyclones is sensitive to changes in data coverage and analysis procedure, as associated changes in the mean circulation were small during this period. EOFs of anticyclone track data w...
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