Low carbon transition pathway of power sector with high penetration of renewable energy

Abstract

The basic trend of low-carbon power sector transition is the expansion of non-fossil power, especially the power generation from renewable energy sources. With the higher penetration of renewable energy into the power system, the flexibility requirements and integration costs are important issues. The flexible generation of thermal power plants could serve as an effective solution to accommodating high share of variable renewable energy electricity. However, it brings about additional integration costs, which should be quantitatively assessed. In this paper, a long-term power generation expansion planning model incorporating integration costs for renewable energy penetration is proposed. This model is used to obtain the most cost-effective low carbon transition pathway of power sector with high penetration of renewable energy and analyze the impact of incorporating short-term integration costs on the long-term power generation planning. China is selected for a case study as it has the largest scale of thermal power plants in the world and urgent need for low carbon transition. The results indicate that thermal power plants gradually change from baseload providers to flexibility providers in the power system for higher penetration of renewable energy. The variable fuel consumption rate of thermal power plants should be taken into account otherwise the total carbon emissions and emission reduction cost would be underestimated.