Long-term risk of subsequent major osteoporotic fracture and hip fracture in men and women: a population-based observational study with a 25-year follow-up.

Abstract

The risk of subsequent fractures is increased following an index fracture, and declines over time. We aimed to determine whether this risk was sustained over 25 years and evolved similarly in men and women. Using population-based databases, we performed a matched cohort study in 16,876 men and 39,230 women ≥ 50 years who sustained an index fracture during 1989-2006. Rates of subsequent major osteoporotic fractures (MOF) and hip fractures until 2016 were compared to rates for matched controls (n = 160,983). Age- and sex-stratified cumulative incidences to 25 years were estimated in the presence of competing mortality. Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for subsequent fractures were estimated for each on the first 15 years of follow-up with a final category ≥ 15 years, adjusted for comorbidities. Risk for MOF and hip fractures remained elevated up to 25 years in both sexes. The cumulative incidence of fractures was higher in cases vs controls in both sexes and across all age categories except in those > 90 years. Crude rate ratios for subsequent MOF were 2.5 (95% CI 2.3-2.7) in men and 1.6 (95% CI 1.6-1.7) in women and were higher in the younger age groups. Adjusted HRs (aHRs) for subsequent MOF were higher in men than in women in the first year (men aHR 2.6, 95% CI 2.1-3.3; women aHR 1.6, 95% CI 1.4-1.7). The risk of subsequent fractures following an initial fracture was increased over 25 years and the magnitude of risk was initially greater in men than in women.