Long-term prediction method for PM2.5 concentration using edge channel graph attention network and gating closed-form continuous-time neural networks

Abstract

Fine particulate matter such as PM2.5 threatens significantly to the environment and human health, so it is essential to design a reliable long-term prediction method for PM2.5 concentrations. Existing long-term PM2.5 prediction models inadequately utilize urban spatial features, fail to consider the role of meteorological factors in PM2.5 levels, and overlook the interaction between PM2.5 concentrations in different cities. To tackle this issue, we propose two new models and integrate them. Firstly, we develop a spatial feature model (ECGAT) for extracting PM2.5 concentration among regions based on Graph Neural Networks (GNN), edge-channel mechanisms, and Graph Attention Convolution (GATConv). This model utilizes GNN to extract urban adjacency relationships and meteorological features, employs edge-channel mechanisms to recalculate weights for interactions between cities, and outputs spatial correlations through GATConv. Secondly, we propose Gating Closed-form Continuous-time Neural Networks (GCFC) as a temporal model to extract the PM2.5 concentration's temporal features. The fusion of these two models, named ECGAT-GCFC (EGCFC), enhances the model's capability to capture spatiotemporal features and improves performance in PM2.5 long-term predictions. Results from real-world data analysis show that the proposed algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art existing prediction models in predicting PM2.5 levels over long durations. Compared to baseline models, EGCFC reduces RMSE by an average of 3.39 %, decreases MAE by 4.83 %, increases R2 by 4.89 %, CSI by 3.13 %, and lowers FAR by 11.39 %. These indicate that EGCFC is an effective method for predicting trends in urban PM2.5 concentrations.