Abstract
Understanding the 1% per year increase of stratospheric water vapour from 1954 to 2000 is a great challenge in atmospheric science. The increase is predominantly caused by long-term changes in transport of water vapour into the stratosphere and systematic increases of tropospheric methane levels. This paper gives a review on stratospheric water vapour changes for the 1980 and 2000 time period with emphasis on the contribution of methane oxidation. Predictions for 2050 indicate that likely increases of tropospheric methane levels will lead to an increase of upper stratospheric water vapour values of about 0.4 ppmv. A similar value is predicted as an upper limit of effects of a future hydrogen economy.
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