Abstract
Abstract Objective seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation for the conterminous United States are produced using tropical Pacific sea surface temperature forecasts for the Nino-3.4 region in conjunction with composites of observed temperature and precipitation keyed to phases of the ENSO cycle. The objective seasonal forecasts are validated against observations for the period February–March–April (FMA) 1995 to September–October–November (SON) 2002, and compared to NOAA's Official Seasonal Forecasts issued by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for the same period. The objective forecasts are shown to produce skill that is comparable to (and even exceeding) that achieved by the Official Seasonal Forecasts at all leads out to 12.5 months. The forecasts are divided into high-frequency (HF) and trend-adjusted (TA) components in order to show that seasonal forecasters could achieve higher skill in both temperature and precipitation forecasts by taking full advantage of trend information, especially...
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