Logistic analysis of recent environmental interest

Abstract

Progress in some fields has been shown to occur through a sequence of high-activity periods that often exhibit logistic growth patterns. Previously, this was demonstrated for local environmental issues during the U.S. Progressive Era through an analysis of environmental (aerial and water-borne) diseases. Later (1970s and 1980s), logistic growth trends in interest (articles and legislation) in national environmental concerns was demonstrated. Recently, environmental attention has included global issues resulting in several international environmental treaties that attempt to address the concerns. Logistic analysis is applied to the recent trends of interest in international environmental issues. This interest is measured at many levels: popular magazine articles, popular books, research-oriented books, and international treaties. There are indications that the elevated level of international environmental interest might have passed the midpoint, in the 1990s, of a 5-decade period. This recent period is compared with previously identified periods concerning local and national environmental issues. Possible reasons for the trends include the recent increasing rate and scope of technological development and the related, perhaps delayed social response. Potential future trends might indicate the relative rate of technological development and social resolution of its impacts. A possible leading indicator is the business and governance response to new technologies, like nanotechnology, which might be responsibly developed to mitigate previous environmental issues without introducing new unintended environmental consequences.