Locally advanced or metastatic pancreatic adenocarcinoma (PA): Prognostic factors for prolonged survival.

Abstract

e15134 Background: Prognosis of pts with locally advanced or metastatic PA is poor, with median survival of 6-9 months. Yet, since the use of gemcitabine, some patients survive more than one year. Recently, FOLFIRINOX regimen yielded better results in selected patients, but with more toxicity. We assessed the value of baseline predictive factors of prolonged survival in non-selected pts treated with gemcitabine. Methods: We conducted a monocentric, retrospective study (1999 to 2010) on all pts treated for locally advanced or metastatic PA. Demographical, clinical, tumoral and biological variables were included into the analysis. The primary end-point was the 12 months survival. All parameters were assessed in univariate and multivariated analyses. We then built a prognostic scoring system integrating the independent prognostic factors. Results: The study was performed on 160 pts: median age 61.1 years, sex ratio (M/F) 93/67, ECOG 0-1/2-3: 60/98, jaundice 62 (38.8%), initially resectable : 36 (22.5%), intra-pancreatic primary location: head: 110 (68.8%), body: 19 (11.9%), tail: 27 (16.9%). The adenocarcinoma was histologically document in 124 cases (77.5%). The median number of metastasis sites was 1 (71.3% liver). The median Ca 19-9 concentration was 925 IU/ml. 155 pts (96.9%) received chemotherapy, of which 124 (80.0%) with gemcitabine in first line. Fifty-two patients (32.5%) were alive 12 months after diagnosis. In univariate analysis, male gender, PS, initial stage, differentiation, primary tumor location, Ca 19-9 were prognostic factors. In multivariate analysis, male gender, head or body locations and low Ca 19-9 concentration (< 111 IU/ml) were associated with a better prognosis. The score with a cut-off between 2 and 3 points was discriminant, with positive and negative predictive values of 64.7% IC-95% [59.2-70.2] and 75.3% IC-95% [74.4-76.2], respectively. The rate of correctly classified pts was 73.6% IC-95% [72.8-74.4]. Conclusions: Male gender, pancreatic head or body location, and Ca 19-9 < 111 are independent prognostic factors for prolonged survival. Further analyses are needed to determine more accurately pts suitable for gemcitabine or the more recently validated regimen FOLFIRINOX.