Local Partners for Local Problems: When Does Foreign Intervention Build Civilian Support?

How do military tactics shape civilian support for foreign intervention? Critics contend that invasive tactics undermine popular support by alienating the civilian population. Counterexamples suggest that civilians will support invasive tactics when foreign counterinsurgents are willing and able to mitigate a proximate threat. I reconcile these divergent findings by arguing that civilian support is a function of threat perception based on three interacting heuristics: social identity, combatant targeting, and territorial control. To evaluate my theory, I enumerate a survey among Iraqi residents in Baghdad during the anti-ISIS campaign. Respondents preferred more invasive tactics when foreign counterinsurgents assisted the most effective local members of the anti-ISIS coalition. Across sectarian divides, however, respondents uniformly opposed the deployment of foreign troops. These findings suggest that in regime-controlled communities, civilians will support counterinsurgents who are invasive enough to mitigate insurgent threats, but not too invasive as to undermine local autonomy.

ABSTRACTThis paper introduces the African Relational Pro-Government Militia Dataset (RPGMD). Recent research has improved our understandings of how pro-government forces form, under what conditions they are most likely to act, and how they affect the risk of internal conflict, repression, and state fragility. In this paper, we give an overview of our dataset that identifies African pro-government militias (PGMs) from 1997 to 2014. The data set shows the wide proliferation and diffusion of these groups on the African continent. We identify 149 active PGMs, 104 of which are unique to our dataset. In addition to descriptive information about these PGMs, we contribute measures of PGM alliance relationships, ethnic relationships, and context. We use these variables to examine the determinants of the presence and level of abusive behavior perpetrated by individual PGMs. Results highlight the need to consider nuances in PGM–government relationships in addition to PGM characteristics.

This article introduces the global Pro-Government Militias Database (PGMD). Despite the devastating record of some pro-government groups, there has been little research on why these forces form, under what conditions they are most likely to act, and how they affect the risk of internal conflict, repression, and state fragility. From events in the former Yugoslavia, Iraq, Sudan, or Syria and the countries of the Arab Spring we know that pro-government militias operate in a variety of contexts. They are often linked with extreme violence and disregard for the laws of war. Yet research, notably quantitative research, lags behind events. In this article we give an overview of the PGMD, a new global dataset that identifies pro-government militias from 1981 to 2007. The information on pro-government militias (PGMs) is presented in a relational data structure, which allows researchers to browse and download different versions of the dataset and access over 3,500 sources that informed the coding. The database shows the wide proliferation and diffusion of these groups. We identify 332 PGMs and specify how they are linked to government, for example via the governing political party, individual leaders, or the military. The dataset captures the type of affiliation of the groups to the government by distinguishing between informal and semi-official militias. It identifies, among others, membership characteristics and the types of groups they target. These data are likely to be relevant to research on state strength and state failure, the dynamics of conflict, including security sector reform, demobilization and reintegration, as well as work on human rights and the interactions between different state and non-state actors. To illustrate uses of the data, we include the PGM data in a standard model of armed conflict and find that such groups increase the risk of civil war.

Along with Iraqi security forces, pro-government militias, known as Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF, also “Hashd al-Shaabi” in Arabic), played a significant role in defeating ISIS. Iraq's engagement with these armed groups during the fight against ISIS empowered and legitimised them within the country. Yet, they often committed human rights violations and were involved in violent activities against the United States embassy, personnel, and military bases. However, since 2014, these groups have been acting as pro-government militias and are legally part of the Iraqi security forces. Yet, some of them have declared loyalty to Iran and act as proxy forces for Tehran. This article argues that pro-government militias in post-ISIS Iraq have negative impacts on security and human rights in the country because most of these groups were previously established based on sectarian factors and proximity to Iran. It also argues that while they are largely regarded as having had an essential role in defeating ISIS, their presence in a post-ISIS Iraq will threaten Iraq's stability.

Communication for Development Interventions in Fragile States: a systematic review.

This book explores ways foreign intervention and external rivalries can affect the institutionalization of governance in weak states. When sufficiently competitive, foreign rivalries in a weak state can actually foster the political centralization, territoriality and autonomy associated with state sovereignty. This counterintuitive finding comes from studying the collective effects of foreign contestation over a weak state as informed by changes in the expected opportunity cost of intervention for outside actors. When interveners associate high opportunity costs with intervention, they bolster sovereign statehood as a next best alternative to their worst fear - domination of that polity by adversaries. Sovereign statehood develops if foreign actors concurrently and consistently behave this way toward a weak state. This book evaluates that argument against three 'least likely' cases - China, Indonesia and Thailand between the late nineteenth and mid-twentieth centuries.

Background A wide range of contextual and programmatic factors frame, affect and constrain communication for development (C4D) interventions undertaken in fragile or conflict affected states. For the purposes of this review, contextual factors include culture, poverty, different stages of conflict (such as latent, open or post-conflict scenarios), policy, legislation and so on, while programmatic factors include the type of intervention, formative and summative evaluation, project design and management, human and financial resources and so on. Understanding the various factors that influence C4D interventions in fragile states is important to improving practice, implementation and evaluation, as well as to the future development of methodologies and frameworks that can be utilised in conflict or crisis situations. Objective The objective of this review is to assess the contextual and programmatic factors that influence communication for development interventions in fragile states. Types of participants Persons regardless of age, gender and ethnicity - living in fragile states. Phenomena of interest The contextual and programmatic factors that influence communication for development (C4D) interventions in fragile states. Types of studies Qualitative peer reviewed studies, expert opinion, discussion papers, project reports, policy papers, position papers and other text. Search strategy Searches were conducted for published and unpublished material (between January 2001 - September 2011), including grey literature, in the English language. Databases searched were: Academic Search Premier; African Women's Bibliographic Database; Anthropology Plus; Bibliography of Asian Studies; Educational Resources Information Centre; Ingenta Connect; JSTOR; Scopus; and Sociological Abstracts; Communication for Social Change Consortium; DevComm (World Bank); Eldis; Search for Common Ground; The Communication Initiative; United Nations Development Programme; United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization; and United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. Methodological quality Each identified source was critically appraised by two independent reviewers for methodological quality and thematic relevance prior to inclusion in the review. The appraisal process employed the System for the Unified Management, Assessment and Review of Information (SUMARI) software developed by the Joanna Briggs Institute. Data collection Data was extracted using the standardised extraction tools. Data synthesis Data were categorised and synthesised using standardised SUMARI extraction tools. This involved the identification of a set of analytical findings, followed by the allocation of specific categories representative of each, i.e. digital divide. A process of aggregation followed via which these initial categories were (where possible) collated into broader synthesised findings. The results of this process are set out in the form of a series of statements that represent a wider trend informed by the data. Results A total of 239 sources were retrieved for detailed examination. 156 of these sources were excluded after review of the full paper/publication leaving 83 sources that were assessed for methodological quality using the SUMARI system. A total of 26 papers (19 qualitative papers and 7 textual/opinion pieces) were included in the review for appraisal and data extraction. A further 57 papers were assessed and excluded. Following extraction, a discussion was developed that examined the relevance of the findings from a realist perspective. Conclusions This review identifies that while different initiatives can be pursued in different conflict situations, their direction and content needs to be driven by a close understanding of context, which in turn is driven by a range of influencing factors (contextual and programmatic), which in turn reflect and build upon existing C4D practice principles. While identifying influencing factors that affect C4D implementation is critical to effective practice, this systematic review also highlights a need for early, more thorough and longer-term C4D interventions within fragile states (especially those that can be characterised by latent conflict and chronic instability). Early communication intervention can help reduce tension and promote reconciliation, but also enable development and humanitarian agencies to be better placed to address situations that may escalate into open conflict. Implications for policy and practice A wide range of contextual and programmatic factors combine to both constrain and provide opportunities for C4D initiatives in fragile states. Such factors need to be recognised, negotiated and addressed by practitioners in design, implementation and evaluation in order to enhance the overall effectiveness of C4D initiatives. Implications for research The quality of the evidence base relating to C4D interventions in fragile states is relatively weak. The difficultly of conducting rigorous evaluation and research in conflict-affected contexts should not be underestimated. This highlights a need to improve our understanding of communications environments within fragile states and the related need to develop appropriate methodological frameworks and tools that enable effective mapping and the identification of appropriate communication interventions to occur.

No AccessOther papers6 Jul 2017Approaches to Governance in Fragile and Conflict SituationsA Synthesis of LessonsAuthors/Editors: Carol Messineo, Per Egil WamCarol Messineo, Per Egil Wamhttps://doi.org/10.1596/27280SectionsAboutPDF (2.8 MB) ToolsAdd to favoritesDownload CitationsTrack Citations ShareFacebookTwitterLinked In Abstract: Developing a diagnostic and action framework for donor-assisted governance reform in conflict-affected countries and fragile states was the objective of a program implemented by the World Bank's Social Development Department (SDV) and funded by the French Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The first phase of the program developed lessons and outcomes based upon a review of international experience of governance reform in fragile and conflict-affected states. A major objective was to identify specific approaches and activities that will be most effective in strengthening institutions, promoting transparency and accountability, and enhancing capacity at local and national levels. This phase also derived lessons on the utility and shortcomings of governance-related diagnostic tools in designing and evaluating country strategies and programs in fragile states. A key issue concerns methodology. What type of analytical method provides a more useful assessment: country-specific analyses of the political economy, indicators designed for purposes of cross-country comparison, indices that rank state fragility, or some combination of diagnostic tools? The second phase of the program also was in two parts. Cote d'Ivoire's poverty reduction strategy process was used as an entry point for an initiative that facilitated process and method-oriented exercises for local stakeholders on the how rather than the what of policy development in an effort to build governance capacity. One result is a model that may serve for future engagement in other fragile and conflict-affected countries. The second part of this phase is an ongoing effort to work with local partners in the Central African Republic and Chad to identify strategies that could strengthen access to justice at the local level. Activities include assessing the strengths and weaknesses of formal and informal justice systems and mapping community-based practices and informal justice systems, including some under the aegis of NGOs, as well as identifying possible linkages to state justice systems. The paper will first examine the concepts of state fragility and governance in terms of donor engagement. Part two will discuss the lessons (opportunities and constraints), diagnostic tools and entry points for governance reform. Part three will offer conclusions. Previous bookNext book FiguresreferencesRecommendeddetails View Published: July 2011 Copyright & Permissions Related TopicsConflict and DevelopmentGovernanceMacroeconomics and Economic GrowthPublic Sector DevelopmentSocial Development KeywordsACCOUNTABILITYADMINISTRATIVE PROCEDURESAID EFFECTIVENESSAUDITSCIVIL SERVICECIVIL WARCOLLECTIVE ACTIONCONSENSUSCORPORATE GOVERNANCECORRUPTIONCRIMEDATA COLLECTIONDECENTRALIZATIONDEMOCRATIZATIONDISCRIMINATIONECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTEMPLOYMENTFINANCIAL MANAGEMENTGOOD GOVERNANCEHUMAN RIGHTSINEQUALITYJUDICIARYLEGISLATIONNATION BUILDINGPATRONAGEPOLITICAL ECONOMYPOLITICAL ELITESPOLITICAL INSTABILITYPUBLIC FINANCEPUBLIC OFFICIALSPUBLIC OPINIONPUBLIC POLICYPUBLIC SECTORPUBLIC SERVICE DELIVERYRULE OF LAWSOCIAL IMPACT ANALYSISSOCIAL JUSTICESOVEREIGNTYTAX ADMINISTRATIONTECHNICAL ASSISTANCETRANSPARENCYVIOLENCEVOTING PDF downloadLoading ...

The chapter traces military-civilian relations during the Vietnam War and the challenges faced by Vietnamericans who remained in Vietnam compared with those who were evacuated in Operation Babylift of left Vietnam for the United States after the Amerasian Homecoming Act. Using historical and sociological approaches as well as psychological and psychiatric analyses, the investigation shines a light on how the three distinct groups experienced their upbringing and lifecourses in very different ways, depending on where geopolitical circumstances and foreign intervention placed them.The analysis zooms in on international and interracial adoption as one chosen avenue to ‘rescue’ children left behind by foreign troops – a policy found in the aftermath of many conflicts, but first practiced on a large scale in the aftermath of the Korean and Vietnam Wars.

The militia as an informal pro-government irregular force helps government forces through a range of asymmetric security threats. Since 9/11, the employment of militia forces has been on the rise. Although the informal Pro-Government Militias (PGMs) operate in juxtaposition with the regular land forces, they are loosely aligned with them. Given the nativity of its members to the battlefield, a militia is best suited to comprehend the operational and tactical situation and, making itself a viable option for state-led forces both from the perspective of low-cost force or its flexibility to deal with irregular threats. Most informal PGMs maintain a stronger ideological and political base, they do not often care about the limitation of their sponsoring state's sovereignty and the legitimacy of their actions. They may even develop linkages with the terrorist outfits for their immediate goals. This puts national security in grave danger. Given the risks, weaker states become vulnerable at the hands of their sponsored militants. Still, the state-led forces will remain inclined to exploit such paramilitary forces to let them shoulder the burden of national security against asymmetric threats.

Foreign intervention in ethnic conflicts has received significant attention in the last 20 years. Scholars have initially considered the sources for these interventions through instrumental and affective factors, though a better classification involves grouping these motives between domestic and international factors. The former category assumes that a third state’s internal politics best explain motives of intervention, and that domestic groups within the state have the greatest impact on foreign policy decision making. Theories based on domestic explanations assume that domestic politics greatly matter in the formulation of states’ decisions to intervene or not in ethnic conflicts elsewhere. As for the external explanations, scholars share a common assertion that the international environment is the central determinant explaining third state intervention. These explanations focus on the impact of institutions and international norms on the international relations of ethnic conflicts. In addition to these approaches, this area of research still contains many issues left unaddressed, such as how interference from outside might affect an ethnic conflict, and what forms of analysis might be used to study foreign interventions. Scholars have applied both quantitative and qualitative techniques, and the diaspora literature stands out for relying almost exclusively on case studies and on very notable cases. Otherwise, the rest of the work in this field follows the current standards by using a mixture of case studies and quantitative analyses depending on the questions in play.

: In response to the escalation by both participants during the Iran-Iraq war, the six member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) enjoined to conduct joint military exercises. As the war increased in intensity, a standing coalition laud force, the Peninsula Shield Force (PSF), was created. The PSF is comprised of infantry, armor, artillery, and combat support elements from each of the GCC countries. Tasked with the defense the GCC nation-states, it has amassed a less than spectacular record of performance daring several Arabian Gulf crisis, most notably during the 1991 Persian Gulf War. Political limitations have been the greatest hindrance to the Peninsula Shield Force's development. As a result, the Peninsula Shield Force faces challenges in material readiness, combat system and combat support interoperability, and appropriate manning. Despite its shortcomings the Peninsula Shield Force has achieved some success including the establishing of a permanent Headquarters staff, yearly exercises, and two deployments to Kuwait as a show of force during the Iran-Iraq war and in 1994 in response to an Iraqi troop buildup on the Iraq-Kuwait border. The Peninsula Shield Force must more fully develop its capabilities as a military force before it is able to unilaterally defend the Gulf Cooperation Council member-states' borders. Until then reliance on foreign intervention, namely from the United States, will continue to be required to support the Gulf Cooperation Council's security needs.

Editorial| December 01 2022 Towards a New Arab Moment Ahmad Yousef Ahmad Ahmad Yousef Ahmad Professor of Political Science, Faculty of Economics and Political Science. University of Cairo, Cairo, Egypt Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar Contemporary Arab Affairs (2022) 15 (3-4): 3–6. https://doi.org/10.1525/caa.2022.15.3-4.3 Views Icon Views Article contents Figures & tables Video Audio Supplementary Data Peer Review Share Icon Share Facebook Twitter LinkedIn MailTo Tools Icon Tools Get Permissions Cite Icon Cite Search Site Citation Ahmad Yousef Ahmad; Towards a New Arab Moment. Contemporary Arab Affairs 1 December 2022; 15 (3-4): 3–6. doi: https://doi.org/10.1525/caa.2022.15.3-4.3 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Reference Manager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex toolbar search Search Dropdown Menu toolbar search search input Search input auto suggest filter your search All ContentContemporary Arab Affairs Search Arabs are facing a very real complex and protracted crisis that some describe as an existential crisis, putting the future of the Arab region and the existing regional order at stake. It is not the first time that the Arab region has faced a complicated crisis. Since the foundation of the League of Arab States, we have faced several challenges: the creation of the Zionist entity and the failed attempt to prevent the declaration of the Zionist state project on the land of Palestine in 1948; the Arab military defeat at the hands of the Israeli assault in June 1967; and the crisis of the Egyptian–Arab divisions in the second half of the 1970s due to the dispute over Anwar Sadat's approach towards political settlement with Israel. Still later we faced the unprecedented crisis of Kuwait's invasion by its neighbor, Iraq, in 1990, which caused unparalleled disputes and divisions among... You do not currently have access to this content.

This article explains variations in state war-propensity. I introduce a new typology of state war-proneness based on four major types of states: revisionist, failed, frontier, and status quo. The major novel contribution of this essay is the argument that the combined effect of variations in the extent of success in state-building (strong or weak states) and nation-building (nationally congruent or incongruent) shapes the level and the type of state violence by producing different categories of states with regard to their war-propensity. Strong states but nationally incongruent generate revisionist states, which initiate aggressive wars. The combination of state strength and national congruence leads to a status quo state. Weakness and incongruence bring about civil wars and foreign intervention in ‘failed’ states. Weakness but congruence produce the ‘frontier state’ with boundary and territorial wars, but also with a reasonable likelihood of evolution of status quo orientation over time. I focus here on key examples of these types of states, especially from two regions: Iraq and Lebanon in a highly war-prone region – the post-World War II Middle East; and Argentina and Brazil in a more peaceful one, at least in the 20th century – South America, although these states experienced quite a number of wars in the 19th century.

Executive summaryBackgroundA wide range of contextual and programmatic factors frame, affect and constrain communication for development (C4D) interventions undertaken in fragile or conflict affected states. For the purposes of this review, contextual factors include culture, poverty, different stages of conflict (such as latent, open or post-conflict scenarios), policy, legislation and so on, while programmatic factors include the type of intervention, formative and summative evaluation, project design and management, human and financial resources and so on. Understanding the various factors that influence C4D interventions in fragile states is important to improving practice, implementation and evaluation, as well as to the future development of methodologies and frameworks that can be utilised in conflict or crisis situations.ObjectiveThe objective of this review is to assess the contextual and programmatic factors that influence communication for development interventions in fragile states.Types of participantsPersons regardless of age, gender and ethnicity – living in fragile states.Phenomena of interestThe contextual and programmatic factors that influence communication for development (C4D) interventions in fragile states.Types of studiesQualitative peer reviewed studies, expert opinion, discussion papers, project reports, policy papers, position papers and other text.Search strategySearches were conducted for published and unpublished material (between January 2001 – September 2011), including grey literature, in the English language. Databases searched were: Academic Search Premier; African Women's Bibliographic Database; Anthropology Plus; Bibliography of Asian Studies; Educational Resources Information Centre; Ingenta Connect; JSTOR; Scopus; and Sociological s; Communication for Social Change Consortium; DevComm (World Bank); Eldis; Search for Common Ground; The Communication Initiative; United Nations Development Programme; United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization; and United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees.Methodological qualityEach identified source was critically appraised by two independent reviewers for methodological quality and thematic relevance prior to inclusion in the review. The appraisal process employed the System for the Unified Management, Assessment and Review of Information (SUMARI) software developed by the Joanna Briggs Institute.Data collectionData was extracted using the standardised extraction tools.Data synthesisData were categorised and synthesised using standardised SUMARI extraction tools. This involved the identification of a set of analytical findings, followed by the allocation of specific categories representative of each, i.e. digital divide. A process of aggregation followed via which these initial categories were (where possible) collated into broader synthesised findings. The results of this process are set out in the form of a series of statements that represent a wider trend informed by the data.ResultsA total of 239 sources were retrieved for detailed examination. 156 of these sources were excluded after review of the full paper/publication leaving 83 sources that were assessed for methodological quality using the SUMARI system. A total of 26 papers (19 qualitative papers and 7 textual/opinion pieces) were included in the review for appraisal and data extraction. A further 57 papers were assessed and excluded. Following extraction, a discussion was developed that examined the relevance of the findings from a realist perspective.ConclusionsThis review identifies that while different initiatives can be pursued in different conflict situations, their direction and content needs to be driven by a close understanding of context, which in turn is driven by a range of influencing factors (contextual and programmatic), which in turn reflect and build upon existing C4D practice principles. While identifying influencing factors that affect C4D implementation is critical to effective practice, this systematic review also highlights a need for early, more thorough and longer-term C4D interventions within fragile states (especially those that can be characterised by latent conflict and chronic instability). Early communication intervention can help reduce tension and promote reconciliation, but also enable development and humanitarian agencies to be better placed to address situations that may escalate into open conflict.Implications for policy and practiceA wide range of contextual and programmatic factors combine to both constrain and provide opportunities for C4D initiatives in fragile states. Such factors need to be recognised, negotiated and addressed by practitioners in design, implementation and evaluation in order to enhance the overall effectiveness of C4D initiatives.Implications for researchThe quality of the evidence base relating to C4D interventions in fragile states is relatively weak. The difficultly of conducting rigorous evaluation and research in conflict-affected contexts should not be underestimated. This highlights a need to improve our understanding of communications environments within fragile states and the related need to develop appropriate methodological frameworks and tools that enable effective mapping and the identification of appropriate communication interventions to occur.