Abstract
Yang (2020) recently argued for enhanced evidence–based decision making during sudden and widespread economic shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, but he lamented the difficulty of acquiring such data in a timely manner. One strategy is to implement an early warning survey system. This article describes Colorado’s experience with a survey the state administered to local government officials shortly after the governor’s stay-at-home order. The state used the survey to inform its fiscal response policies. We describe the advantages and challenges of using surveys as a statewide, rapid information collection strategy as well as offer evidence that the survey yielded relatively accurate data about local fiscal impacts. We also provide an empirical analysis of the survey, employing the Heckman correction technique to account for selection bias, to illustrate how the survey responses can improve state decision making.
Highlights
Yang (2020) recently argued for enhanced evidence–based decision making during sudden and widespread economic shocks such as the COVID-19 pandemic, but he lamented the difficulty of acquiring such data in a timely manner
As COVID-19 spread in the US, most state governors attempted to slow its progression by issuing stay-at-home orders and mandating retailers, theaters, restaurants, and bars close
Yang (2020) recently discussed the challenges of making evidence–based policy decisions during COVID19, and though his discussion focuses on public health policy, we think his points apply to fiscal policy as it relates to local governments
Summary
COVID-19 presents unprecedented economic challenges for local governments, which puts unprecedented pressure on state officials to find ways to assist communities. During the early part of the pandemic, nonprofit professional associations, such as the NLC and ICMA, designed and administered surveys for their respective local government constituencies These surveys may not have been intended to inform state level policy responses to the pandemic, evidenced by the few number of questions and the relative simplicity of the information being asked. DLG’s survey asked over 20 questions focused on gathering information to improve the state’s fiscal policy response. While we argued this approach yielded actionable policy insights, how much more we can learn from state–specific surveys compared to nationally administered ones remains an open question. The battery of questions DLG asked the state’s local governments may serve as a blueprint for developing fiscal measures more useful for evaluating fiscal health during periods of widespread economic shocks
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