Abstract

In this chapter, we conduct another case study. In particular, we will move from a retrospective of the Volmageddon to a forward-looking study of the US high yield corporate bond markets, in the presence of majority agents. The majority agents are authorized participants (APs) in bond ETFs and to a lesser extent, investors in certain mutual funds. Beyond a certain size, bond market liquidity can no longer support the ETF arbitrage mechanism. This implies that a purely technical equity flash crash can cause lasting damage to the bond market. We combine a survey-based price impact estimate with a model of mutual fund flows to calculate the potential fallout from a limit down move in various high yield ETFs.

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