Linking palaeo‐wildfire to depositional environmental and ecological dynamics of an Early–Middle Pennsylvanian fluvial‐tidal transition zone—Palynology and pyrolysis evidence

Results of detrital-zircon analyses (U-Pb ages and initial Hf values, εHft) of Mississippian–Pennsylvanian sandstones in the Michigan, Illinois, and Forest City basins are remarkably similar to data for coeval sandstones in the Appalachian basin, indicating dispersal of sediment from the Appalachian orogen through the Appalachian basin to the eastern Midcontinent during the late Paleozoic. The similarities of results include matches of the two most prominent age groups (1300–950 Ma and 490–350 Ma), as well as matches of the less abundant age groups. Comparisons of the data are from observations of probability density plots and multidimensional scaling of U-Pb age data and of εHft values. Despite the dominance of an Appalachian signature in all samples, some samples contain grains with ages that suggest intermittent additional sources.Four samples (three ranging in depositional age from Morrowan to Atokan–Desmoinesian in the Illinois basin, and one of Desmoinesian age in the Forest City basin), in addition to typical Appalachian age distributions, have prominent age modes between 768 and 525 Ma, corresponding in age to Pan-African/Brasiliano rocks in Gondwanan accreted terranes in the Appalachian orogen, suggesting intermittent dispersal from the Moretown terrane of the northern Appalachians.Sandstones in the Appalachian basin and those in the Midcontinent basins have very few grains with ages that correspond to the Alleghanian orogeny in the Appalachian orogen. Nevertheless, three sandstones each in the Illinois basin and Forest City basin with depositional ages of 312–308 Ma have a few zircon grains in the age range of 321 ± 5 to 307 ± 4 Ma. The nearly identical crystallization and depositional ages suggest reworking at the depositional sites of air-fall volcanic ash from the Alleghanian orogen, rather than fluvial transport from the orogen.The basal Pennsylvanian sandstones lap onto a regional unconformity around the northern rims of the Illinois and Forest City basins, suggesting sources for recycled grains. Along the northern edge of the Illinois basin, Ordovician sandstones beneath the unconformity may have contributed minor concentrations of Superior-age zircons in the basal Pennsylvanian sandstones. Basal Pennsylvanian sandstones in the Forest City basin lap onto Mississippian strata, suggesting possible recycling of zircons from eroded Mississippian sandstones.

The thickness of the Mississippian limestones in central and eastern Kansas bears a close relation to the geologic structure features of the state, and thus to the occurrence of the oil and gas deposits. The limestones of this age are widely distributed in the central and eastern portions of the state, though they are absent over large areas in the central Kansas uplift and the northern part of the Nemaha ridge, as well as in many smaller areas in other parts of the state. They attain a thickness of 1,138 feet in Clark County, but in most of eastern Kansas they have a general thickness of only 300 to 450 feet. The Mississippian limestones include representatives of the Kinderhook, Osage, Meramec, and Chester series. They were deposited on a nearly flat surface on the Chattanooga shale. After their deposition they were gently folded and elevated and the subsequent erosion reduced the surface in pre-Pennsylvanian time to a nearly flat horizontal peneplain. Rocks lowered below the plain of base leveling were preserved; those that had been raised above it were worn away. There is, therefore, a close relation between the thickness of the Mississippian limestones and the folding that occurred during the time interval between the final deposition of the Chattanooga shale and the close of base leveling. In western Kansas the Chattanooga shale was not deposited and the Mississippian limestones rest on an eroded pre-Chattanooga surface, so that the thickness there is not so significant of structure as in eastern Kansas. During the pre-Pennsylvanian folding of the Mississippian rocks, pronounced anticlines, such as the Nemaha ridge fold, the Voshell anticline and many others of less prominence were initiated. They are expressed on the accompanying thickness map (Plate I) by thinning of the Mississippian limestones. The base leveling appears to have been complete. Over 1,100 feet of rocks were removed from the crest of such steep anticlines as the Burns dome and the Eldorado anticline. Erosion revealed the basement granite on parts of the central Kansas uplift and the Nemaha ridge, but on most anticlines the Mississippian was not entirely removed. During early Pennsylvanian time in eastern Oklahoma 18,000 to 20,000 feet of Cherokee and earlier Pennsylvanian rocks were deposited in a gradually subsiding basin. The surface of eastern Kansas appears to have remained above sea level during most of this time, for only about 500 feet of the uppermost Cherokee rocks overlapped upon the surface in Kansas. During this epoch, the previously eroded surface of the Mississippian, which had been reduced to base level, was gradually reelevated. The reelevation was accompanied by synclinal folding, which developed the northern extension of the Cherokee basin of Oklahoma and probably also the Forest City basin. During the same time, anticlinal movements rejuvenated the Nemaha ridge fold and there was a relative downward displacement on the east of 100 to 500 feet. Most of the other earlier anticlines and synclines were rejuvenated in varying degree. The continued advance of the Cherokee sea ultimately covered the region except for the northern part of the Nemaha ridge, the central Kansas uplift, and the intervening area which were not submerged until Marmaton time. The slow and gradual deformation that was going on during the deposition of the early Pennsylvanian rocks in Oklahoma continued in some degree after the Cherokee sea reached Kansas, and it continued to deform the later Pennsylvanian rocks by small increments of folding during their deposition. Some erosion affected the parts of the surface that had not yet been submerged. Because the limestones contained many porous zones and the surface was covered by residual chert, and because the gradients of the surface were low, most of the rainfall escaped by underground channels and the surface dissection was relatively small. The folds of determinable pre-Mississippian age trend in a northwesterly direction. The original folds of the Mississippian rocks trend chiefly toward the north or northeast, although there is some continuation of the northwesterly trending folds. During the Cherokee and later Pennsylvanian time and during the Permian period, both sets of folds were active although northeasterly trending folds predominated. In some places, particularly along the Nemaha ridge fold, there was a tendency toward en echelon arrangement of secondary anticlines. The areas in which igneous intrusions occurred in Pennsylvanian or later time are shown to have been already slightly domed by pre-Pennsylvanian folding. An ill-defined area in Republic and adjoining counties appears to have no Mississippian rocks. The absence of Mississippian rocks in this area may indicate only a local pre-Mississippian topographic high. It may, on the other hand, indicate a folding that trends northwest, parallel to the central Kansas uplift. As the structural features are closely related to the thinning of the Mississippian rocks, there is a close relation between thinning and the occurrence of oil and gas on the anticlines in the central and eastern parts of the state. Nearly all fields that produce from anticlines are underlain by thin sections of Mississippian rocks. It is concluded, therefore, that the presence of a thin section of the Mississippian in areas thus far unproductive may in some cases indicate the proximity of incompletely explored structural highs and warrant further investigation of the local conditions. Some prominent anticlines, however, are not productive of oil or gas. A list of unproductive areas where the Mississippian rocks are thin is presented. The producing zones in Mississippian rocks appear to be independent of the stratigraphic formations. Production is dependent on the porosity of the limestone. The base leveling of the folded rocks brought the various formations of the Mississippian to the surface at different places and subjected them to weathering and leaching. In some places where the ground-water level had been lowered, porous zones are present to a depth of over 100 feet below the surface of the Mississippian. A list of fields that have produced from Mississippian rocks is given and the available production figures are presented.

Nebraska recently celebrated petroleum anniversaries: 100 years of exploration and 50 years of production. The Forest City basin recorded the state's first production in 1939. Shale-to-carbonate facies change occurs for both Devonian- and Ordovician-age reservoirs in a belt transverse to anticlinal structures which represent basement reactivation. Cumulative production from the Nebraska portion of the Forest City basin is almost 11 million bbl. Oil was discovered along the Cambridge arch in southwestern Nebraska in 1948, although it wasn't until 1959 that significant exploration/production occurred. Most fields produce from Pennsylvanian carbonates. However, Nebraska's largest field (Sleepy Hollow) also produces from a basal sand which was reworked and isolated during Pennsylvanian time. Other Pennsylvanian and Cambrian sands are productive in the area but at much lower rates. Cumulative production for southwestern Nebraska is almost 103 million bbl of oil. Only minimal gas is produced. Production was established in 1949 in the Denver basin from the bar and channel sands in the upper Dakota (Cretaceous). A cumulative of over 330 million bbl of oil and nearly 280 billion ft{sup 3} of gas has been produced. Exploration and enhanced recovery continue in these reservoirs. Wildcat drilling in Nebraska has provided sufficient data to outline stratigraphicmore » relationships and delineate major structures. Reservoir conditions are excellent, both stratigraphic and structural traps are present, and the requirement for an oil window may be overcome by the current popularity of long-distance migration.« less

Most drivers underlying wildfire are dynamic, but at different spatial and temporal scales. We quantified temporal and spatial trends in wildfire patterns over two spatial extents in northern Wisconsin to identify drivers and their change through time. We used spatial point pattern analysis to quantify the spatial pattern of wildfire occurrences, and linear regression to quantify the influence of drought and temporal trends in annual number and mean size of wildfires. Analyses confirmed drought as an important driver of both occurrences and fire size. When both drought and time were incorporated in linear regression models, the number of wildfires showed a declining trend across the full study area, despite housing density increasing in magnitude and spatial extent. Fires caused by campfires and debris-burning did not show any temporal trends. Comparison of spatial models representing biophysical, anthropogenic and combined factors demonstrated human influences on wildfire occurrences, especially human activity, infrastructure and property values. We also identified a non-linear relationship between housing density and wildfire occurrence. Large wildfire occurrence was predicted by similar variables to all occurrences, except the direction of influence changed. Understanding these spatial and temporal drivers of wildfire occurrence has implications for land-use planning, wildfire suppression strategies and ecological goals.

The Salina Basin historically has been an “exploration desert”—a home of dryholes. Although this basin, which underlies much of north-central Kansas, may never be a prolific source of hydrocarbons, recent research into the maturation and geochemistry of organic matter and oils in Kansas can provide guidelines for a new exploration strategy. The Salina Basin is similar to the oil-productive Forest City Basin in northeastern Kansas in many ways. Both basins originated as a single large basin (i.e., the North Kansas Basin) prior to the rise of the Nemaha Uplift in Late Mississippian-Early Pennsylvanian time. Their Paleozoic stratigraphy thus is similar and the axes of both basins are presently at approximately the same depth. Thermal maturation modeling and available organic-matter maturation data indicate that the lower Paleozoic rocks in the axes of both basins are in the early stages of oil generation. In the Forest City Basin the Ordovician Simpson Group is the deepest known hydrocarbon source-rock—oil-reservoir interval, and by analogy, exploration tests in the Salina Basin, at a minimum, should penetrate through this stratigraphic interval. Ordovician Simpson Group shales in the Forest City Basin are the source rocks for a geochemically distinct oil, which also occurs in Ordovician reservoirs in the extreme southern end of the Salina Basin. To increase the odds of success in an exploration program in the Salina Basin, wildcat wells should be drilled where thermal maturation is greatest. The broad NW–SE-trending basin axis is the most logical area. Exploration tests along this axis in the northern end of the basin may have an extra advantage as organic matter in the Simpson Group may be more thermally mature because of greater burial depth during the Cretaceous. Along the eastern margin of the nearby Central Kansas Uplift and Pratt Anticline, several Paleozoic geologic structures, some of which contain major oil fields, are attributable to tectonic reactivation along the western margin of the Precambrian Central North American Rift System (CNARS). Prospective structural trends in the Paleozoic section of the Salina Basin are anticipated to be associated with this underlying tectonic boundary. The western margin of the CNARS trends NNE–SSW where it passes under the axis of the Salina Basin in northeastern Lincoln and southeastern Mitchell counties. This area is sparsely drilled, with less than two tests per township. If an exploration program can define lower Paleozoic structural closures in this region, these structures may represent the best chance for future petroleum discoveries.

<p>Wildfire patterns are shifting all over the world as a consequence, among others, of changes in land use and climate [1], which may entail remarkable social, environmental, and economic implications. The occurrence of wildfires is often linked to increased post-fire hydrological and erosive responses, which are hard to predict due to the complexity of factors involved [2]. Against this background, soil erosion models arise as a resourceful tool in the decision-making process for environments that are or could be affected by wildfires: from prevention to mitigation and from emergency actions to long-term planning. Nevertheless, the current soil erosion models were not originally developed for post-fire conditions, so they are not adapted to include fire-related changes into their predictions [3]. This work aimed to review the scientific advances in the last twenty years in post-fire soil erosion modelling research from a meta-analysis approach.</p><p>To this end, the Scopus database was searched using different combinations of the terms “model”, “modelling”, “fire”, “wildfire” “hydrology”, “erosion”, “runoff”, “burn”, “burnt”, “erosion”, “soil erosion”, “sediment” and “rill”. Afterwards, the following publications were excluded: a) reviews; b) journals without peer-review process; c) books or book chapters; d) reports; e) editorials; f) conference proceedings; g) works in which the modelling was conducted on individual processes; h) studies modelling debris flows and landslides; i) works that did not conduct post-fire and/or erosion modelling; j) works that are not in English. Then, it was identified whether authors included in the models important factors related to soil erosion in fire-affected environments such as changes in water infiltration, burn severity, and/or the application of post-fire mitigation treatments. The main modelling approaches used, the calibration and validation of predicted data, and the use of efficiency indexes were also evaluated. </p><p>The screening resulted in 33 works (43 cases based on the model used) that were not homogeneously distributed worldwide, neither according to the model type used, nor by regions most affected by wildfires. For the calibration process, in 70% of the cases models were adapted to burned conditions but only in 25% of them, individual input parameters were improved to accommodate processes that were not previously represented. Additionally, burn severity and changes in infiltration were considered in 77 and 65% of the cases, respectively, whereas only 26% of the cases corresponded to studies where post-fire mitigation treatments were applied. It is noteworthy that only in 19% of the cases, the predicted data were validated with independent field datasets and uncertainty was assessed in 5% of the studies.</p><p>It is highlighted that further efforts are required on the adaptation of erosion models to burned conditions, evaluating the model performance in both calibration and validation stages for a wider variety of environments and scenarios, in order to accurately predict the hydrological and erosive response after fires.</p><p>[1] Andela et al. (2017). Science 356: 1356-1362. DOI: 10.1126/science.aal4108</p><p>[2] Larsen & MacDonald (2007). Water Resour. Res. 43: W11412. DOI: 10.1029/2006WR005560</p><p>[3] Vieira et al. (2018). Environ. Res. 165: 365-378. DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2018.04.029</p>

Salinity contrast in the US Midcontinent Sea during Pennsylvanian glacio-eustatic highstands: Evidence from conodont apatite δ 18 O

For effective management and prevention, wildfire risk prediction needs to consider the substantial impacts of climate change on wildfire patterns. This study analyzed the probability of wildfire occurrence in South Korea using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model and predicted future wildfire occurrence under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) climate change scenarios. The model utilized historical fire occurrence data and was trained using 12 environmental variables encompassing climate, topography, vegetation, and socioeconomic factors. Future wildfire risk was predicted under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2041–2060 and 2081–2100. Increased average temperature and solar radiation were key drivers of elevated wildfire risk, whereas increased precipitation and relative humidity reduced this risk. Under current conditions, 367,027 ha (6.52%) within the study area were classified as high-risk based on the MaxEnt model output (p > 0.6). Under both SSP scenarios, a decline in the at-risk area was observed over time. This study provides fundamental data for wildfire management and prevention strategies in South Korea and provides quantitative evidence on the potential impact of climate-related environmental changes on wildfires.

Because of the increasing anthropogenic fire activity, understanding the role of land-use in shaping wildfire regimes has become a major concern. In the last decade, an increasing number of studies have been carried out on the relationship between land-use and wildfire patterns, in order to identify land-use types where fire behaves selectively, showing a marked preference (or avoidance) in terms of fire incidence. By contrast, the temporal aspects of the relationship between landuse types and wildfire occurrence have received far less attention. The aim of this paper is, thus, to analyze the temporal patterns of fire occurrence in Sardinia (Italy) during the period 2000-2006 to identify land-use types where wildfires occur earlier or later than expected from a random null model. The study highlighted a close relationship between the timing of fire occurrence and land-cover that is primarily governed by two complementary processes: climatic factors that act indirectly on the timing of wildfires determining the spatial distribution of land-use types, and human population and human pressure that directly influence fire ignition. From a practical viewpoint, understanding the temporal trends of wildfires within the different land-use classes can be an effective decision-support tool for fire agencies in managing fire risk and for producing provisional models of fire behavior under changing climatic scenarios and evolving landscapes.

Known as the “lung of the planet”, the Amazon rainforest produces more than 20% of the Earth’s oxygen. Once a carbon pool for mitigating climate change, the Brazilian Amazônia Biome recently has become a significant carbon emitter due to increasingly frequent wildfires. Therefore, it is of crucial importance for authorities to understand wildfire dynamics to manage them safely and effectively. This study incorporated remote sensing and spatial statistics to study both the spatial distribution of wildfires during 2019 and their relationships to 15 environmental and anthropogenic factors. First, broad-scale spatial patterns of wildfire occurrence were explored using kernel density estimation, Moran’s I, Getis-Ord Gi*, and optimized hot spot analysis (OHSA). Second, the relationships between wildfire occurrence and the environmental and anthropogenic factors were explored using several regression models, including Ordinary Least Squares (OLS), global (quasi) Poisson, Geographically-weighted Gaussian Regression (GWGR), and Geographically-weighted Poisson Regression (GWPR). The spatial analysis results indicate that wildfires exhibited pronounced regional differences in spatial patterns in the vast and heterogeneous territory of the Amazônia Biome. The GWPR model outperformed the other regression models and explained the distribution and frequency of wildfires in the Amazônia Biome as a function of topographic, meteorologic, and environmental variables. Environmental factors like elevation, slope, relative humidity, and temperature were significant factors in explaining fire frequency in localized hotspots, while factors related to deforestation (forest loss, forest fragmentation measures, agriculture) explained wildfire activity over much of the region. Therefore, this study could improve a comprehensive study on, and understanding of, wildfire patterns and spatial variation in the target areas to support agencies as they prepare and plan for wildfire and land management activities in the Amazônia Biome.

Wildfires pose significant challenges globally, including in Iran. This study analyzes wildfire occurrences in Iran from 2001 to 2022, using NASA FIRMS' active fire detections MCD14DL data. To enhance the reliability of this satellite-based dataset, particularly in data-scarce regions like Iran, we applied a multi-sensor cross-validation framework before modeling. We also aim to examine the country's wildfire dynamics over two decades, employing k-means clustering to categorize wildfires into ten clusters, delineating fire zones. Two random forest regression models explore the relationships between annual CO2 emissions, indicative of human activities, and average temperature, a proxy for climate variability, with wildfire occurrence. Our findings reveal a notable escalation in the frequency and intensity of wildfires across Iran during the study period. Specifically, the western and southwest regions, designated as Zone 05, emerge as highly affected areas, recording 162,734 fires despite their smaller size. The years 2015-2018 stand out as critical, marked by heightened wildfire activity and rapid annual fluctuations. Interestingly, the regression analysis shows a strong correlation between CO2 emissions and wildfire activity, which highlights the significant influence of human activities. In contrast, the weaker link with the average temperature suggests that climate variability plays a comparatively smaller role in shaping wildfire patterns in Iran during the study period . This study provides insights into Iran's wildfire patterns, revealing that the wildfire regime in Iran is evolving mainly through event frequency rather than fire intensity. These results emphasize the need for stakeholders to understand these dynamics thoroughly for effective mitigation strategies against the environmental and economic challenges posed by wildfires in the region.

The Boothia uplift is an elongate northerly extension of crystalline rocks of the Precambrian shield into the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. The structural grain of the crystalline rocks which comprise the uplift is northerly. This causes the uplift to have an over-all northerly trending elongate outline. Proterozoic to Upper Devonian sediments, which overlie and closely flank the Boothia uplift, form the Cornwallis fold belt. The structure of the Cornwallis fold belt is the result of movements of the underlying Boothia uplift, and for this reason the fold belt also has both a northerly structural grain and outline. Together, the uplift and the fold belt extend at least 600 miles, striking diametrically across the Arctic lowlands and Franklinian miogeosyncline. At various times since the Precambrian, the Boothia uplift has risen, lifting the Cornwallis fold belt with respect to flanking areas. Movements are dated from erosion surfaces and unconformities on the uplift and in the fold belt. In the southern part, the uplift is a simple arch, whereas in the northern, it is predominantly a horst, with a lesser amount of arching. Near-vertical faults bordering the Boothia uplift become high-angle reverse faults toward the surface, presumably the result of lateral spreading of the uplifted area. Such faulting commonly is exposed at the boundary of the uplift in the Arctic lowlands. However, in the much thicker, commonly incompetent succession of the miogeosyncline fold belt, structure is reflected as asymmetrical folding of the Cornwallis fold belt Published model experiments with fine, dry sands, in which a horst-shaped block was uplifted, have steep reverse faults at the boundaries, and strongly resemble the northern part of the Boothia uplift. A mobile belt encompassing the Boothia uplift and Cornwallis fold belt moved periodically, having six documented times of uplift relative to the flanking areas. These uplifts occurred in (1) Precambrian, (2) pre-Middle Cambrian, (3) mid-Early Devonian, (4) late Early to early Middle Devonian, (5) mid-Late Devonian, and (6) Pennsylvanian or Early Permian times. Submergence following the mid-Early Devonian and the late Early to early Middle Devonian uplifts was the result of widespread regional submergence rather than relative depression of the mobile belt alone. The nature of the submergence which followed the other uplifts is unknown. Thus, in the geologic record, the Boothia uplift and Cornwallis fold belt have risen six times with respect to the flanking regions. However, although t ey were covered by sediments at various times and have narrow normal-faulted zones of down-dropped blocks, they do not appear to have sunk as a unit with respect to the flanking regions.

Miocene fluvial systems and palynofloras at the southwestern tip of Africa: Implications for regional and global fluctuations in climate and ecosystems

The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) has been widely used for wildfire occurrence and distribution detecting and fire risk assessments. Compared with its commission error, the omission error of MODIS wildfire detection has been revealed as a much more challenging, unsolved issue, and ground-level environmental factors influencing the detection capacity are also variable. This study compared the multiple MODIS fire products and the records of ground wildfire investigations during December 2002–November 2015 in Yunnan Province, Southwest China, in an attempt to reveal the difference in the spatiotemporal patterns of regional wildfire detected by the two approaches, to estimate the omission error of MODIS fire products based on confirmed ground wildfire records, and to explore how instantaneous and local environmental factors influenced the wildfire detection probability of MODIS. The results indicated that across the province, the total number of wildfire events recorded by MODIS was at least twice as many as that in the ground records, while the wildfire distribution patterns revealed by the two approaches were inconsistent. For the 5145 confirmed ground records, however, only 11.10% of them could be detected using multiple MODIS fire products (i.e., MOD14A1, MYD14A1, and MCD64A1). Opposing trends during the studied period were found between the yearly occurrence of ground-based wildfire records and the corresponding proportion detected by MODIS. Moreover, the wildfire detection proportion by MODIS was 11.36% in forest, 9.58% in shrubs, and 5.56% in grassland, respectively. Random forest modeling suggested that fire size was a primary limiting factor for MODIS fire detecting capacity, where a small fire size could likely result in MODIS omission errors at a threshold of 1 ha, while MODIS had a 50% probability of detecting a wildfire whose size was at least 18 ha. Aside from fire size, the wildfire detection probability of MODIS was also markedly influenced by weather factors, especially the daily relative humidity and the daily wind speed, and the altitude of wildfire occurrence. Considering the environmental factors’ contribution to the omission error in MODIS wildfire detection, we emphasized the importance of attention to the local conditions as well as ground inspection in practical wildfire monitoring and management and global wildfire simulations.

<p>The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) has been widely used for wildfire occurrence and distribution detecting and fire risk assessments. Compared with its commission error, the omission error of MODIS wildfire detection has been revealed as a much more challenging, unsolved issue, and ground-level environmental factors influencing the detection capacity are also variable. This study compared the multiple MODIS fire products and the records of ground wildfire investigations during December 2002–November 2015 in Yunnan Province, Southwest China, in an attempt to reveal the difference in the spatiotemporal patterns of regional wildfire detected by the two approaches, to estimate the omission error of MODIS fire products based on confirmed ground wildfire records, and to explore how instantaneous and local environmental factors influenced the wildfire detection probability of MODIS. The results indicated that across the province, the total number of wildfire events recorded by MODIS was at least twice as many as that in the ground records, while the wildfire distribution patterns revealed by the two approaches were inconsistent. For the 5145 confirmed ground records, however, only 11.10% of them could be detected using multiple MODIS fire products (i.e., MOD14A1, MYD14A1, and MCD64A1). Opposing trends during the studied period were found between the yearly occurrence of ground-based wildfire records and the corresponding proportion detected by MODIS. Moreover, the wildfire detection proportion by MODIS was 11.36% in forest, 9.58% in shrubs, and 5.56% in grassland, respectively. Random forest modeling suggested that fire size was a primary limiting factor for MODIS fire detecting capacity, where a small fire size could likely result in MODIS omission errors at a threshold of 1 ha, while MODIS had a 50% probability of detecting a wildfire whose size was at least 18 ha. Aside from fire size, the wildfire detection probability of MODIS was also markedly influenced by weather factors, especially the daily relative humidity and the daily wind speed, and the altitude of wildfire occurrence. Considering the environmental factors’ contribution to the omission error in MODIS wildfire detection, we emphasized the importance of attention to the local conditions as well as ground inspection in practical wildfire monitoring and management and global wildfire simulations.</p>