Abstract
International online peer-reviewed open-access journal offers a possibility for the international community of professionals working in the fields of regional and rural development or tourism to exchange their ideas and research results or practical achievements as it publishes results of both theoretical and applied research in these fields.
Highlights
Economic development at the national level is often accompanied by territorial divergence at sub-national levels, which phenomenon became even more noticeable during and after the global financial and economic crisis
We focus on the methods that apply a regionalisation procedure in order to downscale national level economic forecasts to the regional level
18 Hysteresis occurs when a temporary shock has a permanent effect on the steady state of a dynamic system
Summary
Economic development at the national level is often accompanied by territorial divergence at sub-national levels, which phenomenon became even more noticeable during and after the global financial and economic crisis. Some long-run macroeconomic forecasts are available on the national level based on the ECO-TREND model (Keresztély, 2004), and an experimental, regional downscaling exercise was presented by Zsibók and Sebestyén (2017) at the NUTS 3 level. Beenstock and Felsenstein, 2007, Baltagi et al, 2014, Elhorst, 2009) through dynamic factor models (Stock and Watson, 2002, Owyang et al, 2009) and shift-share techniques (Hoorelbeke et al, 2007, Mayor et al, 2007 and Koops and Muskens, 2005) to more sophisticated, multiregional model-based forecasting procedures (Magnani and Valin, 2009) From this menu, in this article we consider a simple statistical trend approach which is extended by a decomposition exercise and convergence functions. The period of our demographic projections ends in 2050. Capital deepening is the growth in capital per labour input, e.g. hours worked, number of employees (European Commission, 2015). Hysteresis occurs when a temporary shock has a permanent effect on the steady state of a dynamic system (the interpretation of the concept in the context of regional economic processes is provided by Martin, 2011)
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