Abstract
With the rapid development of urban rail system, the associated energy consumption increases progressively. Therefore, it is significant to predict the energy consumption resulted from the rail system. This paper aims to establish a traction energy consumption (TEC) estimation model by considering the level of service (LOS) factors related to the energy consumption (e.g., ambient temperature and load factors). First, the TEC model of a special line is established after analyzing the influencing factors of TEC; then, based on the data collected in Beijing urban rail system, the model for a special line is estimated and examined; finally, three different TEC estimation methods, i.e., unit indicator method, time series model, and regression model, are introduced and compared with the proposed model. The results show that the proposed TEC model considering the LOS has higher precision, with MAPE of 1 %. Moreover, when the line operation length, etc., do not change in the near future, except for unit indicator method, other methods all can be used to estimate the monthly TEC.
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