Abstract
A simple yet accurate photovoltaic (PV) performance curve as a function of satellite-based solar irradiation is necessary to develop a PV power forecasting model that can cover all of South Korea, where more than 35,000 PV power plants are currently in operation. In order to express the nonlinear power output of the PV module with respect to the hourly global horizontal irradiance derived from satellite images, this study employed the Gompertz model, which is composed of three parameters and the sigmoid equation. The nonphysical behavior of the Gompertz model within the low solar irradiation range was corrected by combining a linear equation with the same gradient at the conjoint point. The overall fitness of Linear-Gompertz regression to the 242 PV power plants representing the country was R2 = 0.85 and nRMSE = 0.09. The Gompertz model coefficients showed normal distributions and equivariance of standard deviations of less than 15% by year and by season. Therefore, it can be conjectured that the Linear-Gompertz model represents the whole country’s PV system performance curve. In addition, the Gompertz coefficient C, which controls the growth rate of the curve, showed a strong correlation with the capacity factor, such that the regression equation for the capacity factor could be derived as a function of the three Gompertz model coefficients with a fitness of R2 = 0.88.
Highlights
Global warming is projected to increase by 1.5 ◦ C between 2030 and 2052
In South Korea, greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector, which accounted for 87% of total emissions in 2014, declined by 1.2% compared with the previous year due to the implementation of an energy transition strategy in which fossil fuel power plants are being replaced by renewable energy [2,3]
This paper introduced the Gompertz model, a sigmoidal equation commonly used in growth analyses, as an adequate regression model for determining the PV performance curve, i.e., PV power output with respect to global horizontal irradiance (GHI)
Summary
Global warming is projected to increase by 1.5 ◦ C between 2030 and 2052. In South Korea, greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector, which accounted for 87% of total emissions in 2014, declined by 1.2% compared with the previous year due to the implementation of an energy transition strategy in which fossil fuel power plants are being replaced by renewable energy [2,3]. The implementation of the energy transition plan “Renewable Energy 3020”, which was announced in 2017, will increase the renewable energy share of the energy mix from its current level of 7% to 20%. South Korea has been ranked among the top 10 PV markets in terms of cumulative capacity, having reached 7.2 GW in
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