Abstract
Significance Energy ties, already deep, have expanded since 2022 as part of a broader reorientation of Russian commerce away from the West. The similarly authoritarian leadership styles of Presidents Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan have facilitated close ties, but they often compete in their approach to conflicts in Syria, Libya, the South Caucasus and Ukraine. Impacts Military cooperation between Moscow and Ankara will be limited by the war in Ukraine, Turkey’s NATO membership and Ankara’s ties with Kyiv. Preoccupied with the war in Ukraine, Russia will grow more wary of Turkey's expanding influence in the South Caucasus and Central Asia. Russia’s reliance on Turkey as a buyer of crude oil and refined oil products will be a source of vulnerability to Moscow.
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