Abstract
With the transportation sector growing considerably and demand for transport fuels rising globally, this study looks at the current and future status and technical/economic potential of lignocellulosic biofuels in India in a business-as-usual (BAU), national policy on biofuel (NPB) and 2 ℃ climate stabilization scenarios. It identifies key challenges in achieving the country’s biofuel targets, and analyses their role in India’s long-term transport scenarios. In this study, we have used ANSWER MARKAL model to assess the economic potential of biofuels obtained through lignocellulosic agricultural residues. The results indicate that the current ethanol and biodiesel availability in India through the first generation biofuel route is not sufficient to meet the country’s biofuel target. On the other hand, lignocellulosic agricultural residues can produce 38 and 51 billion litres of lignocellulosic ethanol/BTL in 2020 and 2030, respectively, which would be sufficient to meet the NPB’s 20 percent blending by 2030. Apart from biofuel availability, we assess the investment requirement for second generation biofuel industry, reduction in carbon dioxide emissions and impact on rural employment in different scenarios.
Highlights
The results indicate that the current ethanol and biodiesel availability in India through the first generation biofuel route is not sufficient to meet the country’s biofuel target
The paper looks at three interrelated questions: i) what is the supply of biofuels that is needed for meeting the blending targets mandated by Government of India (GoI), ii) what would be the technical potential of supply based on the 2nd-generation pathways given that biofuel supply from 1st-generation pathway is inadequate, and iii) what is the economic potential of the biofuels
The results indicate that the current ethanol and biodiesel availability through the 1st-generation biofuel route is not sufficient to meet the target of 20% blending by 2017 set in the national policy on biofuels
Summary
Transport sector is a vital part of global climate change mitigation strategies, as it accounts for about 28% of overall energy consumption and for 23% of world energy-related CO2 emissions [1]. As stated in India’s National Action Plan for Climate Change (NAPCC), transport emissions can be reduced by adopting low-carbon transport strategies, which includes measures such as increased public transport use, higher penetration of biofuels, enhanced vehicle efficiency [9]. Of the 146 billion litres of biofuel produced globally in 2015 [15], 116 billion litres (79%) were ethanol. Fuel ethanol production increased from 17 billion litres in 2000 [13] to 116 billion litres in 2015 globally [15], an average annual growth of approximately 13.6%. In the United States, ethanol production will increase in 2016 and 2017 to meet the stronger demand induced by low crude oil prices and implied higher gasoline use and decrease slightly because of lower transportation fuels demand. It may be noted that India’s current biofuel production accounts for less than 1% of global biofuel production [17]
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