Leveraging a Bayesian Approach in a Comparative Effectiveness Trial of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events

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PurposeWe applied a Bayesian approach to further investigate the association of sodium–glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) with the composite outcome of Major Adverse Cardiovascular Event and Heart Failure hospitalization (MACE+HF) and its individual components leveraging the ability of a Bayesian approach to incorporate prior clinical information and to make probability statements about the parameters.MethodsWe use a Bayesian time-to-event model, where the covariates are directly modeled in the hazard function. Following propensity score matching, we fit three Bayesian models; one with a relatively flat, normal prior on the SGLT2i coefficient (Uninformative) and 2 with informative priors from a meta-analysis (based on a cohort with no history of cardiovascular disease [No CVD] and cohorts with a history of CVD [CVD]). We estimate the posterior distribution for the hazard ratio (HR) using a Hamiltonian Monte Carlo algorithm. It allows us to estimate the probability of a meaningful protective association (HR < 0.90) in addition to point and interval estimates.ResultsThe posterior means and 95% credible intervals for the HR suggested a protective association for SGLT2i versus dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP4i) for the MACE+HF outcome: No CVD: 0.82 (0.68, 0.96), CVD: 0.82 (0.71, 0.94), and Uninformative: 0.79 (0.65, 0.94). The probability of a meaningful protective association for the No CVD, CVD, and Uninformative priors were 88%, 92%, and 93%, respectively. The probability of a meaningful protective association for the HF hospitalization, CVD hospitalization and CVD death components of MACE+HF were 95%, 67%, and 93%, respectively.ConclusionThe Bayesian analysis allowed for the incorporation of prior information via an informative prior and further investigation of the association between SGLT2 and the components of the MACE+HF composite outcome. It allowed for the calculation of an easily interpretable summary measure, the probability of a meaningful protective association.

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Risk of hyperkalaemia in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus prescribed with SGLT2 versus DPP-4 inhibitors.
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  • European Heart Journal - Cardiovascular Pharmacotherapy
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To investigate the risk of hyperkalaemia in new users of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors vs. dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). Patients with T2DM who commenced treatment with an SGLT2 or a DPP-4 inhibitor between 2015 and 2019 were collected. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards analysis was applied to compare the risk of central laboratory-determined severe hyperkalaemia, hyperkalaemia, hypokalaemia (serum potassium ≥6.0, ≥5.5, and <3.5mmol/L, respectively), and initiation of a potassium binder in patients newly prescribed an SGLT2 or a DPP-4 inhibitor. A total of 28599 patients (mean age 60±11 years, 60.9% male) were included after 1:2 propensity score matching, of whom 10586 were new users of SGLT2 inhibitors and 18013 of DPP-4 inhibitors. During a 2-year follow-up, severe hyperkalaemia developed in 122 SGLT2 inhibitor users and 325 DPP-4 inhibitor users. Use of SGLT2 inhibitors was associated with a 29% reduction in incident severe hyperkalaemia [hazard ratio (HR) 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.58-0.88] compared with DPP-4 inhibitors. Risk of hyperkalaemia (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.71-0.92) and prescription of a potassium binder (HR 0.74, 95% CI 0.67-0.82) were likewise decreased with SGLT2 inhibitors compared with DPP-4 inhibitors. Occurrence of incident hypokalaemia was nonetheless similar between those prescribed an SGLT2 inhibitor and those prescribed a DPP-4 inhibitor (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.81-1.01). Our study provides real-world evidence that compared with DPP-4 inhibitors, SGLT2 inhibitors were associated with lower risk of hyperkalaemia and did not increase the incidence of hypokalaemia in patients with T2DM.

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Outcomes of SGLT-2i and GLP-1RA Therapy Among Patients With Type 2 Diabetes and Varying NAFLD Status
  • Dec 28, 2023
  • JAMA network open
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Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is a cardiovascular risk factor, but whether sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT-2i) and glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) are associated with reduced cardiovascular risk in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and concomitant NAFLD remains uncertain. To investigate the outcomes of SGLT-2i and GLP-1RA therapy among patients with T2D varied by the presence or absence of NAFLD. This retrospective, population-based, nationwide cohort study used an active-comparator new-user design. Two distinct new-user active-comparator cohorts of patients aged 40 years and older who initiated SGLT-2i or GLP-1RA were propensity score matched to patients who initiated dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP-4i). The study was conducted in South Korea from January 2013 to December 2020, and data analysis was conducted from October 2022 to March 2023. The main outcomes were (1) major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), a composite end point of hospitalization for myocardial infarction, hospitalization for stroke, and cardiovascular death, and (2) hospitalization for heart failure (HHF). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs). The Wald test was applied to assess heterogeneity by NAFLD. After 1:1 propensity score matching, 140 438 patients were retrieved in the first cohort (SGLT-2i vs DPP-4i; mean [SD] age, 57.5 [10.3] years; 79 633 [56.7%] male) and 34 886 patients were identified in the second cohort (GLP-1RA vs DPP-4i; mean [SD] age, 59.5 [10.5] years; 17 894 [51.3%] male). Compared with DPP-4i, SGLT-2i therapy was associated with a lower risk of MACE (HR, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.71-0.85]) and HHF (HR, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.48-0.81]). GLP-1RA therapy was associated with a decreased risk of MACE (HR, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.39-0.62]) but had statistically nonsignificant findings regarding HHF (HR, 0.64 [95% CI, 0.39-1.07]). Stratified analysis by NAFLD status yielded consistent results for SGLT-2i (MACE with NAFLD: HR, 0.73 [95% CI, 0.62-0.86]; without NAFLD: HR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.72-0.91]; HHF with NAFLD: HR, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.49-1.17]; without NAFLD: HR, 0.56 [95% CI, 0.40-0.78]) and for GLP-1RA (MACE with NAFLD: HR, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.32-0.77]; without NAFLD: HR, 0.49 [95% CI, 0.37-0.65]; HHF with NAFLD: HR, 0.82 [95% CI, 0.38-1.76]; without NAFLD: HR, 0.54 [95% CI, 0.27-1.06]). In this population-based cohort study, SGLT-2i therapy was associated with a decreased risk of MACE and HHF, while GLP-1RA therapy was associated with a decreased risk of MACE among patients with T2D, irrespective of baseline NAFLD status.

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AimsThe effectiveness and limb safety of sodium glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) for patients with type-2 diabetes (T2D) who have received peripheral artery disease (PAD) revascularization are unknown.Methods and resultsIn this nationwide retrospective cohort study, we identified a total of 2,455 and 8,695 patients with T2D who had undergone PAD revascularization and received first prescriptions for SGLT2i and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i), respectively, between May 1, 2016, and December 31, 2019. We used 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) to balance covariates between the two study groups. Patients were followed up from the drug index date until the occurrence of specified outcomes, death, discontinuation of the index drug, or the end of the study period, whichever occurred first. After PSM, we observed that compared with DPP4i, SGLT2i were associated with comparable risks of ischemic stroke, acute myocardial infarction, and heart failure hospitalization but were associated with a lower risk of cardiac death (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.60; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.40–0.90]; p = 0.0126). Regarding major limb outcomes, SGLT2i were associated with comparable risks of repeated revascularization and lower limb amputation compared with DPP4i. SGLT2i were associated with a lower risk of composite renal outcomes (HR: 0.40; 95% CI: 0.27–0.59; p < 0.0001) compared with DPP4i.ConclusionIn a real-world study of patients with T2D who had undergone PAD revascularization, SGLT2i were associated with lower risks of cardiac death and composite renal outcomes but not associated with increased risks of adverse limb events compared with DPP4i.

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Cardiovascular, renal, and lower limb outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes after percutaneous coronary intervention and treated with sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors vs. dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors.
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Patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) who undergo percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) are at higher risk of adverse cardiovascular and renal events than non-diabetic patients. However, limited evidence is available regarding the cardiovascular, renal, and limb outcomes of patients with T2D after PCI and who were treated with sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i). We compare the specified outcomes in patients with T2D after PCI who were treated with SGLT2i vs. dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i). In this nationwide retrospective cohort study, we identified 4248 and 37037 consecutive patients with T2D who underwent PCI with SGLT2i and DPP4i, respectively, for 1 May 2016-31 December 2019. We used propensity score matching (PSM) to balance the covariates between study groups. After PSM, SGLT2i, and DPP4i were associated with comparable risks of ischaemic stroke, acute myocardial infarction, and lower limb amputation. However, SGLT2i was associated with significantly lower risks of heart failure hospitalization [HFH; 1.35% per year vs. 2.28% per year; hazard ratio (HR): 0.60; P=0.0001], coronary revascularization (2.33% per year vs. 3.36% per year; HR: 0.69; P=0.0003), composite renal outcomes (0.10% per year vs. 1.05% per year; HR: 0.17; P<0.0001), and all-cause mortality (2.27% per year vs. 3.80% per year, HR: 0.60; P<0.0001) than were DPP4i. Our data indicated that SGLT2i, compared with DPP4i, were associated with lower risks of HFH, coronary revascularization, composite renal outcomes, and all-cause mortality for patients with T2D after PCI. Further randomized or prospective studies can investigate the effects of SGLT2i in patients with T2D after PCI.

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New Glucose-Lowering Agents for Diabetic Kidney Disease.
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Sodium-Glucose Cotransporter-2 Inhibitors and the Risk for Severe Urinary Tract Infections: A Population-Based Cohort Study.
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Use of sodium glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors and risk of major cardiovascular events and heart failure: Scandinavian register based cohort study
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The “Real-World” Effect of Anti-hyperglycemic Drugs on the Development of Chronic Kidney Disease in a Retrospective Cohort of Patients With Incident Diabetes: A Research Letter
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Newer Pharmacologic Treatments in Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-analysis for the American College of Physicians.
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  • Annals of internal medicine
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Newer diabetes medications may have beneficial effects on mortality, cardiovascular outcomes, and renal outcomes. To evaluate the effectiveness, comparative effectiveness, and harms of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors, glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP1) agonists, dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP4) inhibitors, and long-acting insulins as monotherapy or combination therapy in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). MEDLINE and EMBASE for randomized controlled trials (RCTs) published from 2010 through January 2023. RCTs lasting at least 52 weeks that included at least 500 adults with T2DM receiving eligible medications and reported any outcomes of interest. Data were abstracted by 1 reviewer and verified by a second. Independent, dual assessments of risk of bias and certainty of evidence (CoE) were done. A total of 130 publications from 84 RCTs were identified. CoE was appraised using GRADE (Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation) criteria for direct, indirect, and network meta-analysis (NMA); the highest CoE was reported. Compared with usual care, SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP1 agonists reduce all-cause mortality (high CoE) and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) (moderate to high CoE), SGLT2 inhibitors reduce progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and heart failure hospitalizations and GLP1 agonists reduce stroke (high CoE), and SGLT2 inhibitors reduce serious adverse events and severe hypoglycemia (high CoE). The threshold for minimally important differences, which was predefined with the American College of Physicians Clinical Guidelines Committee, was not met for these outcomes. Compared with usual care, insulin, tirzepatide, and DPP4 inhibitors do not reduce all-cause mortality (low to high CoE). Compared with insulin, SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP1 agonists reduce all-cause mortality (low to moderate CoE). Compared with DPP4 inhibitors, GLP1 agonists reduce all-cause mortality (moderate CoE). Compared with DPP4 inhibitors and sulfonylurea (SU), SGLT2 inhibitors reduce MACE (moderate to high CoE). Compared with SU and insulin, SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP1 agonists reduce severe hypoglycemia (low to high CoE). Infrequent direct comparisons between drugs of interest; sparse data for NMA on most outcomes; possible incoherence due to differences in baseline patient characteristics and usual care; insufficient data on predefined subgroups, including demographic subgroups, patients with prior cardiovascular disease, and treatment-naive persons. In adults with T2DM, SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP1 agonists (but not DPP4 inhibitors, insulin, or tirzepatide) reduce all-cause mortality and MACE compared with usual care. SGLT2 inhibitors reduce CKD progression and heart failure hospitalization and GLP1 agonists reduce stroke compared with usual care. Serious adverse events and severe hypoglycemia are less frequent with SGLT2 inhibitors and GLP1 agonists than with insulin or SU. American College of Physicians. (PROSPERO: CRD42022322129).

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