Lateral Escape Capability Analysis with Probabilistic Pilot Model for Microburst Avoidance

Abstract

Low altitude wind shear presents a significant hazard to aircraft during takeoff and landing operations. Much of the prior research on aircraft escape procedures during microburst encounters has assumed that the aircraft penetrates the center of the microburst in straight flight. Based on a parameterized three-dimensional microburst model and flight dynamics model with wind effects, the lateral escape was studied. The escape strategy and occasion was studied by changing the parameters. Since single pilot’s control behavior cannot stand for a group of pilots, a parameterized human pilot model was developed to simulate pilots’ characters. A pilot-aircraft-microburst environment model was constructed for further study. To study the safety of lateral escape, the Monte Carlo Simulation was adopted to obtain a numerical approximation of the probability density function of the minimum altitude and F-factor. The results show that although lateral escape capability is affected by pilots’ characters and microburst parameters, escape from the weaker side of the wind field is favorable than longitudinal escape.