Latent therapeutic demand model for the immunoglobulin replacement therapy of primary immune deficiency disorders in the USA.

Abstract

Our research aim is to model latent therapeutic demand (LTD) for the immunoglobulin replacement therapy (IgGRT) of primary immune deficiency disorders (PIDDs) in the USA. Given the high level of variability of IgGRT use and major differences among American and European practices in the management of patients with PIDDs, we develop a USA-specific LTD model for common variable immune deficiency (CVID), hyper IGM syndrome, severe combined immune deficiency, Wiskott-Aldrich syndrome and X-linked agammaglobulinemia (XLA). We use decision analysis methods to model the underlying IgGRT demand for PIDDs by assessing USA-specific epidemiology and treatment. Data for the epidemiology and treatment variables were obtained from the medical literature, USIDNET and Immune Deficiency Foundation. The uncertainty surrounding the variables was modelled using probability distributions and evaluated using Monte Carlo simulation. The mean treatment dose from USIDNET and European Society for Immunodeficiencies (ESID) was significantly different for treating CVID, and the number of annual infusions from USIDNET and ESID was significantly different for treating CVID and XLA. The mean and standard deviation of LTD for all PIDDs is 105·1±88·5g per 1000 population, with CVID contributing the most to LTD. Estimating country-specific LTD is important to ensure an adequate supply of IgGRT and an optimal treatment for patients with PIDDs and for improving national healthcare policymaking and production planning.