Abstract
Twice each year the World Health Organization makes a recommendation for the composition of the influenza vaccine, based on circulating strains of influenza A(H3N2), A(H1N1) and B. Strain selection has always been based on immunogenicity studies with limited human data. Immunogenicity can be considered as a proxy for vaccine effectiveness (VE). However, only interim VE estimates for the target hemisphere can be considered in time for the strain selection meeting.Using surveillance data from Victoria, Australia, we retrospectively estimated and compared interim and final VE estimates for 2007 to 2012. In general, interim estimates were within five percentage points of final estimates. However, estimates made too early or in years of low influenza activity may be unreliable.
Highlights
The World Health Organization (WHO) hosts an influenza vaccine strain selection meeting where data gathered by members of the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS) are reviewed and used to generate formal recommendations for the composition of seasonal influenza vaccines [1,2]
We used data collected as part of the Victorian General Practice Sentinel Surveillance network for the years 2007 to 2012 to calculate retrospective interim and final estimates
There were no statistical differences between estimates, with point estimates varying by up to five percentage points (Figure 2)
Summary
The World Health Organization (WHO) hosts an influenza vaccine strain selection meeting where data gathered by members of the Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System (GISRS) are reviewed and used to generate formal recommendations for the composition of seasonal influenza vaccines [1,2]. Recommendations for the northern hemisphere vaccine are made in February and for the southern hemisphere in September. At the February 2013 meeting, epidemiological data were submitted reporting interim VE estimates from surveillance systems in Canada, Europe and the United States (US). These estimates were published [3,4,5,6,7,8] and included for the first time with the package reviewed by GISRS meeting members. Final season estimates for the northern hemisphere were recently presented at the September 2013 meeting, as well as interim estimates for the southern hemisphere
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