Late Quaternary changes in malaria-free areas in Papua New Guinea and the future perspectives

Abstract

The New Guinea Highlands were among the first areas where agricultural societies developed about 9 kya. Even today, the highest human population densities can be found in the tropical highlands, those are the most important shelters for societies in this seriously malaria-affected equatorial area. In this study, the distribution and altitudinal patterns of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria, as well as the potential generation numbers and the annual season lengths of the extrinsic transmission periods of the parasites were modelled for the Last Glacial Maximum, the Mid-Holocene Period, 1960–1990 and 2061–2080 in the Papua New Guinea Highland provinces. It was found that areas influenced by Plasmodium vivax malaria have always been larger than the endemic regions of Plasmodium falciparum. After the Last Glacial Period, the extension of the malaria-free areas decreased dramatically. It could trigger the development of agriculture in the highlands in the early Holocene due to the increasing population concentration in malaria-free areas. These malaria-free regions could be stable in the rest part of the Holocene, which could explain the high human genetic and cultural diversity of the New Guinea Highlands. Future models predict the disruption of this stability and the notable decrease of the malaria-free areas in the highlands, especially in the case of Plasmodium vivax malaria, but the upward move in the Plasmodium falciparum-endemic regions also seems to be notable. These changes can negatively affect the demographic stability and cultural complexity of the traditional highlander communities in Papua New Guinea.