Abstract
In a changing climate and society, large storage systems can play a key role for securing water, energy, and food, and rebalancing their cross-dependencies. In this letter, we study the role of large storage operations as flexible means of adaptation to climate change. In particular, we explore the impacts of different climate projections for different future time horizons on the multi-purpose operations of the existing system of large dams in the Red River basin (China–Laos–Vietnam). We identify the main vulnerabilities of current system operations, understand the risk of failure across sectors by exploring the evolution of the system tradeoffs, quantify how the uncertainty associated to climate scenarios is expanded by the storage operations, and assess the expected costs if no adaptation is implemented. Results show that, depending on the climate scenario and the time horizon considered, the existing operations are predicted to change on average from -7 to +5% in hydropower production, +35 to +520% in flood damages, and +15 to +160% in water supply deficit. These negative impacts can be partially mitigated by adapting the existing operations to future climate, reducing the loss of hydropower to 5%, potentially saving around 34.4 million US$ year-1 at the national scale. Since the Red River is paradigmatic of many river basins across south east Asia, where new large dams are under construction or are planned to support fast growing economies, our results can support policy makers in prioritizing responses and adaptation strategies to the changing climate.
Highlights
More than half of the world’s rivers are regulated by dams (Nilsson et al 2005), forming a cumulative storing capacity greater than 20% of the total annual runoff (Vorosmarty et al 1997)
Our results show negative climate change impacts on water supply vulnerability in all the scenarios, with the values of Jsupply that increase from 15% to 160% due to the expected decrease of the streamflow during the dry season
To CPQ11L, the fully adapted ACPQ11 attains +3% in hydropower production and -60% in flood damages, with a small increase in the water supply deficit (+4%). These results demonstrate that the modification of the reservoirs operations represents an effective adaptation measure for reducing the adverse climate change impacts
Summary
More than half of the world’s rivers are regulated by dams (Nilsson et al 2005), forming a cumulative storing capacity greater than 20% of the total annual runoff (Vorosmarty et al 1997). Large storage projects contribute positively to regional growth and development by increasing water availability for different economic sectors, producing relatively carbon-neutral energy, and reducing flood risk (Biemans et al 2007, Fernandez 2013, Giuliani 2014, Vliet and Aerts 2015). Pressure on water resources is further raising as a consequence of climate change and growing populations, which are expected to severely affect freshwater availability in many regions of the world (IPCC 2013). This increasing stress mandates rethinking how large storages are operated by enlarging the scope of their operations across sectors and by adopting effective tools to analyze the potential of reoperation options under current and projected conditions (Arnell and Lloyd-Hughes 2014, Harrison et al 2015). Re-designing the existing storages’ management strategies has a strong potential for enhancing the flexibility and the adaptive capacity of water systems, without the need of structural upgrades and their associated financial outlays (Anghileri et al 2011, Georgakakos et al 2012)
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