Abstract

The Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is a highly invasive vector species. It is a proven vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses, with the potential to host a further 24 arboviruses. It has recently expanded its geographical range, threatening many countries in the Middle East, Mediterranean, Europe and North America. Here, we investigate the theoretical limitations of its range expansion by developing an environmentally-driven mathematical model of its population dynamics. We focus on the temperate strain of Ae. albopictus and compile a comprehensive literature-based database of physiological parameters. As a novel approach, we link its population dynamics to globally-available environmental datasets by performing inference on all parameters. We adopt a Bayesian approach using experimental data as prior knowledge and the surveillance dataset of Emilia-Romagna, Italy, as evidence. The model accounts for temperature, precipitation, human population density and photoperiod as the main environmental drivers, and, in addition, incorporates the mechanism of diapause and a simple breeding site model. The model demonstrates high predictive skill over the reference region and beyond, confirming most of the current reports of vector presence in Europe. One of the main hypotheses derived from the model is the survival of Ae. albopictus populations through harsh winter conditions. The model, constrained by the environmental datasets, requires that either diapausing eggs or adult vectors have increased cold resistance. The model also suggests that temperature and photoperiod control diapause initiation and termination differentially. We demonstrate that it is possible to account for unobserved properties and constraints, such as differences between laboratory and field conditions, to derive reliable inferences on the environmental dependence of Ae. albopictus populations.

Highlights

  • The tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is an invasive species which poses health risks to humans through its capacity to act as a disease vector

  • Its contribution to transmission of dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses has been demonstrated in the field, while its capacity to transmit around 24 additional arboviruses under laboratory conditions has been revealed [14, 15]

  • Using the hoppMCMC algorithm [65], we identified a set of posterior modes, S 1⁄4 fY1 . . . Y3g, closely matching the Emilia-Romagna surveillance data under the restrictions imposed by data collected from the literature

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Summary

Introduction

The tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus, is an invasive species which poses health risks to humans through its capacity to act as a disease vector. Its contribution to transmission of dengue (DENV) and chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses has been demonstrated in the field, while its capacity to transmit around 24 additional arboviruses under laboratory conditions has been revealed [14, 15]. It has been the primary vector for CHIKV outbreaks in the Indian Ocean region from 2005 to 2006, with over three million cases reported [16]. The first occurrence of Ae. albopictus in Europe was reported in Albania in 1979 [17], and in 2007 it caused a CHIKV epidemic in Italy, where over 200 cases were reported [18, 19]

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