Abstract
Climate change has already influenced lake temperatures globally, but understanding future change is challenging. The response of lakes to changing climate drivers is complex due to the nature of lake-atmosphere coupling, ice cover, and stratification. To better understand the diversity of lake responses to climate change and give managers insight on individual lakes, we modelled daily water temperature profiles for 10,774 lakes in Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin for contemporary (1979–2015) and future (2020–2040 and 2080–2100) time periods with climate models based on the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5, the worst-case emission scenario. In addition to lake-specific daily simulated temperatures, we derived commonly used, ecologically relevant annual metrics of thermal conditions for each lake. We include all supporting lake-specific model parameters, meteorological drivers, and archived code for the model and derived metric calculations. This unique dataset offers landscape-level insight into the impact of climate change on lakes.
Highlights
Background & SummaryUnderstanding how lake ecosystems are affected by climate change is challenging
Using all information available when evaluating how lakes will respond individually is important to understanding and managing for climate change in lakes
Understanding the response of biota to changes in seasonal dynamics of stratification and temperature is challenged by complex behavior and life histories that are influenced by multiple temperature cues[7,8,9]
Summary
Background & SummaryUnderstanding how lake ecosystems are affected by climate change is challenging. To fully evaluate how climate change might affect lakes, the full annual dynamics of water temperature are required. This novel modeling approach can help fill the gaps in past water temperature data as well as project a scenario of future changes to improve our understanding of the impacts of climate change on lakes and their biota.
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