Land transformation across agroecological zones reveals expanding cropland and settlement at the expense of tree-cover and wetland areas in Nigeria

Abstract

ABSTRACT Evaluating how land cover is being transformed is essential to identify patterns necessary to infer the change trajectories and the driving factors. This study considers the case of Nigeria, where various natural ecosystems are being converted and for which a current national scale assessment at high spatial resolution is lacking. Producing 30 m Landsat-based time-series data, we analyze change among land cover types (i.e. tree-covered area, grassland, wetland, waterbody, cropland, artificial surface, and otherland) across seven agroecological zones. The annual change intensity was assessed at multi-levels across two time-intervals (i.e. 2000–2013, 2013–2022). Distinguishing between natural land cover and human activity-related land-use, we estimate the extent of change signifying how humans have appropriated natural land cover. Insights from analysis at the interval level reveal that land transformation accelerated from 3.3% in 2000–2013 to 4.5% during 2013–2022 in all agroecological zones (e.g. rainforest, mangrove), except in Sudan savannah and Sahel savannah where speed was higher in 2000–2013 as grasslands were increasingly cultivated. Cropland expanded almost two-fold (22% to 37%), whereas tree-cover declined from 50% to 31% and wetland from 7% to 3.7% over the 23 years. Much loss of natural land cover (e.g. tree-cover, grassland, and wetland) to cropland occurred in 2000–2013 (22%) when most irrigation schemes in Nigeria were established. In contrast, the loss of natural land cover to settlement (0.9%) during 2000–2013 increased to 2.0% in 2013–2022. Of all agroecological zones, the mangrove zone was most disturbed as its persisting land cover areas reduced from 69% to 5% between 2000–2013 and 2013–2022. The amount of persisting land cover was highest in the Sudan savannah at 44% in 2000–2013 and 49% in 2013–2022. Processes of human-appropriated natural land cover in Nigeria are related to urbanization and cropland expansion into natural areas with some instances of natural regeneration, especially in croplands and abandoned settlement areas.