La heurística de el Autómaton aristotélico en fenómenos de recurrencia cíclica del sector inmobiliario y financiero

The purpose of this chapter is to determine the level of interaction between the country’s economy and the real estate marketReal estate market. That is, how changes in the economy affect the dynamics of the development of the real estate marketReal estate market and how the dynamic development of the real estate marketReal estate market affects the growth of certain sectors of the economy. The investigated trends in the real estate marketReal estate market in 2021 and the beginning of 2022 determined that, despite the pandemic and the economic crisis, the demandDemand for housing on average in Ukraine increased by 30–35% in the primary and 30% in the secondary real estate marketsSecondary real estate market. The authors investigated the peculiarities of the development of the modern real estate marketReal estate market in Ukraine. In this chapter, the authors present practical studies of the real estate marketReal estate market of Ukraine with examples of the dynamics of the development of various objects. The authors investigated the peculiarities of the development of the rental market. The rental housing market is dynamic today. The rental market affects the real estateReal estate sales market and has a significant impact on the future strategies of developers within the urban economy of each individual settlement. The chapter classifies the apartment rental market according to parameters that significantly affect prices in the studied segment. These parameters affect the market value of the real estateReal estate. As a practical implementation, an information-digital map of the dependence of the average rental price of “hotels” and 1-room, 2-room, and 3-room apartments on the locationLocation was developed using GOOGLE MAP and using the example of the city of Kharkiv. The authors proved that the housing market is developing despite the unstable economic situation, the devaluation of the hryvnia, and the decrease in the income of the populationPopulation. It is illustrated that the costCost of renting an apartment depends on the locationLocation (this factor became especially relevant in wartime), the condition of the building, the transport infrastructureInfrastructure, and the condition of the real estateReal estate object itself. This section analyzes the market of small housing as a new social phenomenon in large cities in Ukraine. It has been proven that the primary real estate marketPrimary real estate market is not sufficiently transparent in the general system of the country’s economy. It functions only in interaction with the secondary market of real estateReal estate and is developing very rapidly due to the existing high demandDemand for newly built real estateReal estate in central areas and areas located near transport highways and metro stations. In this chapter, the authors also analyzed the market value of the landLand plot, which is directly proportional to the city’s infrastructureInfrastructure.

In recent years, with the deepening of marketization, China’s real estate price has been increasing constantly and attracts the general concern of the whole society. In order to restrict the excessive growth of the market prices, the government continues to strengthen macro-intervention. In market economy, the formation of real estate price depends on the real estate market conditions. The power comparison of supply and demand sides will have a direct impact on the real estate price changes. The real estate market power of the supply and the demand reflects their ability to influence the real estate price, reveals the market conditions as well as structure characteristics of real estate market, and has significant influence on the growths of real estate price. In this paper we adopt Lerner Index to measure the real estate market power. We choose the real estate market sales data of the nation, 30 provinces and 35 large and medium-sized cities as sample and estimate China’s real estate market power and the average increase of real estate price. Based on that, we analyze the relationship between increase amplitude of real estate price and the market power. The result of the study shows that China’s real estate price changes and the real estate market power present a positive correlation and real estate market power is one of the main factors influencing the changes of real estate price.

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to investigate and compare the extreme behavior of securitized real estate and stock market returns as well as their value‐at‐risk (VaR) dynamics in international investing. Extreme value theory using the block maxima method is applied to ten securitized real estate and equity market indices representing Asian, European and North American markets.Design/methodology/approachThe paper models the maxima and minima of all return series within the extreme value theory (EVT) framework and derive the VaR estimates. It then compares the VaR estimates derived from the EVT and the normal distribution and investigates the impact of clustered returns on the VaR estimates. Finally, both the conventional standard deviation measure and VaR method are conducted to evaluate and compare the impact of the Asian financial turmoil on the real estate and stock market risk profiles.FindingsEvidence shows that Asian real estate and equity maxima and minima return series are characterized by a fat‐tailed Fréchet distribution. The frequency and severity of extreme Asian real estate returns are greater than their European and North American counterparts. Securitized real estate markets are riskier than the broader stock markets before and during the Asian financial turmoil. In contrast, many stock markets become riskier after the financial crisis with their VaRs higher than the equivalent VaR estimates for the real estate series.Research limitations/implicationsKnowledge about real estate market returns exhibit extreme behavior can help investors and fund managers understand the distribution of real estate market returns better and obtain potentially more accurate real estate return forecasts.Practical implicationsInternational real estate portfolio risk management should include both extreme risks and standard deviations. Accordingly, global investors should be even more cautious in formulating their diversification strategies since gains from diversification can be reduced significantly by the severity of extreme return levels.Originality/valueThe paper characterizes the distribution of extreme returns for a broad spectrum of international securitized real estate markets from three continents. The extreme value investigation is also conducted for broader stock markets corresponding to the individual real estate markets. The July 1997 turmoil that occurred in Asian financial markets provides interesting exploratory opportunities within which this paper estimates and compares the extreme market risk with the conventional standard deviation measure.

PurposeThis study aims to empirically examine the relationship between real estate and stock market of Pakistan.Design/methodology/approachThe data of two real estate indices (house price index and plot price index) are taken for the Pakistan and its four big cities, i.e. Lahore, Karachi, Rawalpindi and Islamabad. It estimates the integration between series by applying the Johansen cointegration test. Moreover, the vector error correction model is applied to examine the short and long-run causal relationships between series.FindingsThe findings show that the real estate markets are cointegrated with the stock market. They imply that the real estate and stock markets are good substitutes in investment allocation, but investors cannot get the benefit of diversification by making a portfolio of real estate and stock markets in Pakistan. Moreover, the long-run causality is observed from majority house markets to the stock market, whereas short-run causality is evident from majority plot markets to the stock market. Hence, the real estate market leads the stock market in the short run and long run, suggesting the credit-price effect in the majority of real estate markets in Pakistan. These causality results are helpful for investors in the forecasting of real estate and stock markets in Pakistan.Research limitations/implicationsThe limitation of the study is the lower number of observations (107), because house and land prices are only available in monthly frequency from January 2011 in Pakistan.Originality/valueTo the best of the authors’ knowledge, no researcher has investigated the real estate and stock market nexus in Pakistan. Therefore, this study focuses on examining the relationship between the real estate and stock market of Pakistan. The link between real estate and stock markets will provide useful insights to the portfolio managers, real estate companies, property agents, stockbrokers and investors.

The purpose of this chapter was to consider such an industry as construction, and the levers that affect the construction of residential real estateReal estate, the costCost of construction, and the value of the real estateReal estate, constantly influencing the market value of the real estateReal estate in the market. The authors have thoroughly researched and identified the factors that affect the market value of the real estateReal estate. As a result of the conducted research, a conclusion was made regarding the value of the real estateReal estate and trends in the further development of the real estate marketReal estate market and the construction industry. Economic, political, and market factors were considered in more detail. The factors under the influence of which the development trends of the real estate marketReal estate market of Ukraine were formed in 2021 and at the beginning of 2022 are listed. The authors used geoinformation systems to identify trends and patterns of influence of the construction industry on the real estate marketReal estate market.

PurposeWithin the context of ESG (Environment, Social and Governance), environmental sustainability has taken on increased global importance in recent years. Similarly, real estate investment managers in developing their global real estate investment portfolios need a fuller understanding of the ESG and environmental sustainability dimensions of these global real estate markets for more informed real estate investment decisions. Using the JLL GRETI sustainability sub-index, this paper examines the environmental sustainability transparency status of 99 global real estate markets over 2016–2020 and explores various strategic issues regarding ESG and environmental sustainability; particularly the critical issues relating to climate risk mitigation, climate resilience and zero-carbon. The current status of environmental sustainability in these 99 real estate markets is assessed, with areas for “best practice” improvement identified to the benefit of real estate investment managers; particularly the improvements needed in ESG to support real estate investment in the emerging real estate markets.Design/methodology/approachThe JLL GRETI sustainability sub-index is analysed to examine strategic issues relating to environmental sustainability transparency. 99 real estate markets are assessed globally for a range of critical ESG issues over 2016–2020. Differences between the developed and emerging real estate markets are highlighted.FindingsConsiderable variation was seen in the ESG and environmental sustainability practices, procedures and frameworks across these 99 real estate markets. This was particularly evident amongst the emerging real estate markets. Compared to the other five dimensions for real estate market transparency, environmental sustainability was seen to be well behind these other dimensions in most markets. Progress has been made in recent years, but it has been slow and steady rather than at a dynamic level. Clearly, more is needed globally to enhance the stature of environmental sustainability in the context of an increasing focus on ESG and specifically on climate risk mitigation, climate resilience and zero-carbon in real estate investment.Practical implicationsWith ESG and environmental sustainability taking on increased importance across the international real estate markets, it is important that real estate fund managers have a full understanding of the ESG and environmental sustainability status of these real estate markets where they may be considering real estate investment opportunities; this includes both the developed and emerging real estate markets. This is essential to ensure future capital raising for new funds, as well as supporting the global ESG agenda by the real estate investment community. Specific strategies are also identified for emerging real estate markets to improve their environmental sustainability practices and ESG status.Originality/valueThis is the first paper to use the JLL GRETI sustainability sub-index to assess the environmental sustainability status of 99 real estate markets globally; providing strategic insights for real estate investment managers as they develop their global real estate portfolios and more fully embrace the challenges of ESG and environmental sustainability in the real estate space going forward. Specific strategies are clearly identified for all markets to improve their environmental sustainability ratings to the benefit of both global real estate investment and the broader communities.

The Taiwan real estate market on the basis of private ownership has been developed for forty to fifty years with economic growth. During this period, Taiwan real estate market experienced three main prosperous cycles. But after 1991, due to real estate market oversupply, economic growth slowdown and domestic and international circumstance factor influence, it still has been in the long time murky condition up to now. Traditional opinions of “Holding real estate means the symptom of wealth” and keeping real estate for appreciation are questionable for investors now. The economic system of Mainland China has significant transformation since it had executed open policy in 1979. The real estate system still remains the land on the basis of public ownership, but the leasehold estates could be transferred after 1988. After that time, real estate in Mainland China becomes “the circulation commodity” which inspires the market development. It is the recent ten years that Mainland Chin real estate market has developed maturely and vigorously due to rapid economy growth. Above all, in the near future, the 2008 Olympic Games at Beijing and the 2010 World Exhibition at Shanghai will motivate the Mainland China economy and real estate market to grow faster. Especially for Shanghai, it will become the “shining pearl” in Mainland China and attract global investors’ sights. On the analysis of current development trend, Shanghai real estate market is worth investing in the few years. But Investors should have more concern about the different real estate ownership and development stage from Taiwan and Mainland China, then you can have an more exact estimate and make a right investment decision. Based on the basic environment, industrial development and the key points of real estate investment decision-making of Taiwan and Mainland China, the project with case study approach of which selected Taipei and Shanghai office buildings as research objective makes practical investment analysis. The main purposes of project are as following: 1.To compare the current circumstance of real estate investment environment in Taiwan and Mainland China, describe the trend of the market development, then generalize those factors which affect the real estate market development. 2. To analyze the investment profit by means of case study which compares with the investment process, the fixed rental income and expected appreciation of real estate. 3. To consider the Taiwan and Mainland China real estate market and monetary market, and study the feasibility of real estate investment in above areas by using the modern financial analysis tools; also analyze the different investment decision-making and find out the key points for investors’reference. The project makes four conclusions as followings: 1. Based on present Taiwan and Mainland China real estate market conditions and predicted development tendency, the Shanghai commercial real estate is a good choice of making investment in the short and middle term period if in the income approach point of view. But in the maturity of political and economic development, the stability of market trading and the estates value points of view, the Shanghai commercial real estate is more potentially risky and uncertain than Taipei. So the long-term investment profit of real estate in Taipei still cannot be negligent. 2. The reasons of the present Shanghai commercial real estate investment profit higher than Taipei are the lower real estate price and higher rental income. The case study of the project verifies the present investment value of Taiwan and Mainland China real estate. But the long- term investment profit in the above areas depends on the accurate estimate of real estate market development in the future. 3. Investors should estimate the marginal utility of the rate of return and mortgage rate, and also consider the tax shield when they make real estate investment by mortgage. 4. Long-term investors should carefully consider the local government policy, administrative rules, exchange rate risk and the estates value of real estate. These factors all sufficiently affect the investment profit.

This paper analyzed the transmission mechanism of the interaction between the real estate market and stock market. The real estate and stock markets showed a certain positive interaction through credit expansion effect and the wealth effect. And to some extent, the conduction effects of macroeconomic promoted the interaction degree of the real estate and stock markets. This paper analyzed the interaction between China's real estate and stock market through Co-integration test, Granger causality test, VAR model and impulse response functions. According to the empirical results, there was a long-term co-integration relationship between the China's real estate and stock markets. Keywords—Stock Market, Real Estate Market, Co-Integration Relationship 中国房地产市场与股票市场关联性的实证分析

PurposeThe financial and economic turmoil that resulted from the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), included a marked increase in the volatility in real estate markets. Property asset prices were impacted by the real economy and market sentiment, particularly concerning the determination of risk. In an economic downturn, the perception of investment risk becomes increasingly important relative to overall total returns, and thus impacts on yields and performance of assets. In a recovery phase, and particularly within an environment of historically low government bonds, risk and return compete for importance. The aim of this paper is to assess the interrelationships and impacts on pricing between real estate risk, yield modelling outcomes and market sentiment in selective European city office markets.Design/methodology/approachThis paper specifically considers the modelling of commercial property pricing in relation to the appetite for risk in the financial markets. The paper expands on previous work by determining a specific measure of risk pricing in relationship to changing financial market sentiment. The methodology underpinning the research specifically examines the scope for using national and international risk pricing within specific real estate markets in Europe.FindingsThis paper addresses whether there is a difference between the impact of risk on the pricing of real estate in international versus regional cities in Europe. The analysis, therefore, determines which city centre office markets in Europe have been most impacted by globalisation including the magnitude on real estate prices and market volatility. The outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continues to drive yield movements under different market conditions.Research limitations/implicationsThe paper considers the driving forces which have led to the volatile movements of yields, emanating from the GFC.Practical implicationsThis paper considers the property market effects on pricing of commercial real estate and the drivers in selected European cities.Originality/valueThe outcome of the paper provides important insights into how changes in risk preferences in the international capital markets have driven and continue to drive the yield movements in different real estate markets in Europe.

Since the reform of the housing system in 1998, China's housing industry has developed vigorously, and the real estate market's output and prices have rocketed, hence becoming a key engine for economic growth. Compared with developed countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States, the Chinese real estate market has a much shorter history of development. In the infancy stage of Chinese real estate there existed various problems in the i.e., the continuous rise in housing prices, housing bubbles, land finance, ghost cities, etc, which have seriously affected the long-term stable development of Chinese real estate market. In 2003, the Circular of the State Council on Promoting the Continuous and Healthy Development of the Real Estate Markets first proposed that significance of the continuous and healthy development of the real estate markets shall be fully understood. Since then, China has put forward the concept of the real estate market, and the government has frequently issued various measures for macro-control, but they have little effect. One of the principle reasons for the ineffectiveness of multiple housing macro-control policies is the lack of systematic research on the fundamental question of what is meant by a healthy real estate market. Therefore, research on the health of the real estate market has become an important issue that needs to be resolved urgently in the field of macroeconomics and policies in China. This research defines the health of the real estate applies theories in macroeconomics, real estate economics and public policies, uses quantitative analysis tools such as analytic hierarchy process and regression analysis, refers to existing research both in China and abroad, considers the characteristics of the domestic real estate and strives to establish a system for evaluating the health of the Chinese real estate market. Taking the comprehensive data of 35 large and medium-sized cities' real estate markets commonly recorded in the national real estate control statistics as samples, cluster analysis and analytic hierarchy process are used to comprehensively evaluate the health of the Chinese real estate market. From research, it is found that the Chinese real estate market in the 15 years from 2004 to 2018 (which involve the 10 years when the real estate market has been intensively regulated by government policies), tends to be in the normal range as a whole, with the exception of 2004 and 2014 when there was a slightly cold situation, and 2010 when the market was slightly hot. With the central government's policies encouraging development of the real estate it has gradually become a pillar industry of the national economy, and formed a close symbiotic relationship with the macroeconomy. This research also emphasizes the importance of persisting in regulations of the housing market and provides suggestions on perfecting the real estate market policy regulation system. The health index of the real estate market of China and important cities derived can provide quantitative analysis tools for national real estate macro-control and promote the sustainable and healthy development of the real estate market.

The stock exchange is considered one of the most important financial institutions in the market economy. The stock market reacts to the state of the economy almost immediately, and, in the end, the quotations of companies affect the state of other markets. The author decided to look at companies from the WIG Real Estate index as important entities shaping the real estate market. When comparing the situation on the capital market with the situation on the residential real estate market, one could, building an appropriate model, conclude how much these markets interact. Purpose - The purpose of the article is to present the links between two important markets, the capital market, with real estate companies as its representatives, and the secondary housing market. In order to achieve the goal, a research hypothesis was formulated: the economic situation on the real estate companies market will be reflected in the situation on the secondary housing market. Design/methodology/approach - Cross-sectional regression analysis was used in the study. Using the data from the Warsaw Stock Exchange and the National Bank of Poland, regression models where price changes in the secondary housing market are explained by the quotations of real estate companies and selected stock exchange indices were built. The study was carried out from the first quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2017. Findings - Two models were built in which the rates of return on investments in real estate companies explain the price changes in the secondary housing market in a statistically significant way. Thus, the research hypothesis was positively verified, showing that the real estate market and the stock market of real estate companies are interrelated. Originality/Value - The alternative method of analyzing the real estate market can be considered as the original value of the presented results. A demonstration of the connections between both markets allows us to validate the methods used on the stock market to analyze the real estate market. An example application is the use of methods for estimating the cost of capital from the stock market in the real estate market.

The historical development of the real estate market in the Balkans is interesting from several aspects especially in the post-socialist period after the change of the political system and the abandonment of the socialism policy and the transition to a model of a market economy. The collapse of a dominant market with the prevailing social capital followed, new states were formed with new legal frameworks and began the development of institutions as the instruments of the real estate market. All this was followed the training of new staff and the introduction of certification and licensing instruments for professional real estate appraisers. The demands of the market are changing - instead of the typical socialist construction of buildings, a new modern way of constructing buildings is becoming prevalent. The newly formed Balkan countries make efforts to curb illegal construction by creating the institutional framework of a modern market economy, where investment in real estate as a form of capital has become more attractive and less risky for investors. The adoption of laws and by-laws in the field of spatial planning, real estate cadastre, real estate transactions, tax policy, and loan banking policy reversed the situation in the real estate market. The institutional framework has facilitated the development, increased security and created an environment that will speed up transaction procedures and help build an efficient real estate management system in the newly formed Balkan countries.

Global investors often invest in publicly traded indirect real estate (IRE) such as Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) and listed property companies rather than physical real estate asset in order to get exposure in foreign real estate markets for a number of reasons that mainly originated from the high transaction cost in the direct real estate (DRE) market. However, in reality IRE is not a perfect substitute of DRE and that the substitutability between IRE and DRE varies across markets. Very little is known about the factors that contributed to the variation. One possible contributing factor is the variation in the degree of real estate market transparency across markets, which is seldom examined in the previous studies. This thesis provides empirical evidence on the impact of real estate market transparency on the linkages between IRE and DRE. 
\nThis study examines two aspects of IRE-DRE linkages, namely, return (first moment) linkages and volatility (second moment) linkages. This thesis uses style analysis to measure return linkages and variance decomposition to measure volatility linkages. After that, the correlations between IRE-DRE linkages and Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL)’s global real estate market transparency index will be examined. 
\nThe empirical results show that the JLL global real estate market transparency index does have a positive impact on the linkages between IRE and DRE, especially on the volatility linkages. In addition, regulatory and legal transparency sub-index as well as real estate transaction process transparency sub-index have the strongest impact on both return and volatility IRE-DRE linkages. 
\nA highly-developed legal system as well as consistent regulatory enforcement (as measured by the degree of fairness treatment towards both domestic and foreign investors) ensures that real estate investors’ rights are well protected and thus the values of the underlying real estate asset are reflected in the IRE, which strengthens the IRE-DRE linkages. In addition, having a well-functioning regulatory and legal framework also means that DRE market transaction information is reliable which can be used for more accurate valuations. This assists investors in valuing the IRE based on their audited financial statements and thus strengthens the IRE-DRE linkages. 
\nReal estate transaction process transparency refers to market transparency in both pre-sale and spot real estate market. The presale market is essentially a forward market. Price information in the spot market can assist investors in assessing the future prospect of IRE and thus facilitates the price discovery process between the IRE and DRE. High transparency in the presale market therefore lead to stronger IRE-DRE linkages.
\nThe findings of this study provide several implications for global investors and local policy makers. Though emerging markets, which have low market transparency, are playing a more and more significant role in international real estate investment portfolios, global investors should understand the limitation of investing IRE as a means to gain exposure in DRE since the IRE-DRE linkages are usually weak in emergent markets. On the other hand, policy makers should spend more efforts to increase real estate market transparency if they wish to attract investments from global investors. In particular, policy makers should aim at improving the regulatory and legal framework as well as enhancing the transaction process transparency.

Purpose – Real estate market transparency is an important factor in real estate investment and occupier decision making. The purpose of this paper is to assess real estate transparency over 2004-2014 to determine whether the European real estate markets have become more transparent in a regional and global context. Design/methodology/approach – Using the JLL real estate transparency index over 2004-2014, changes in real estate market transparency are assessed for 102 real estate markets. This JLL real estate market transparency index is also assessed against corruption levels and business competitiveness in these markets. Findings – Improvements in real estate transparency are clearly evident in many European real estate markets, with several of these European real estate markets seen to be the major improvers in transparency from a global real estate markets perspective. Practical implications – Institutional investors and occupiers see real estate market transparency as a key factor in their strategic real estate investment and occupancy decision making. By assessing changes in real estate transparency across 102 real estate markets, investors and occupiers are able to make more informed real estate investment decisions across the global real estate markets. In particular, this relates to both investors and occupiers being able to more fully understand the risk dimensions of their international real estate decisions. Originality/value – This paper is the first paper to assess the dynamics of real estate market transparency over 2004-2014, with a particular focus on the 33 European real estate markets in a global context to facilitate more informed real estate investment and occupancy decision making.

<div class="htmlview paragraph">Scaling down the conventional four stroke diesel engine to arrive at the small efficient engine needed for the economic automotive market, presents limitations, which are fundamentally better overcome by the two stroke diesel.</div> <div class="htmlview paragraph">As design consultants specialising in the opposed piston two stroke diesel, Armstrong Whitworth have many years of experience studying and developing small high speed diesel engines.</div> <div class="htmlview paragraph">In the truck sizes the two stroke has had many successes, General Motors in the U.S.A. and the three litre Tilling Steven opposed piston engine in the U.K. are examples. To meet the ever increasing demands on emissions and noise, however, the two stroke diesel has inherent limitations which have held back its use for the automotive application.</div> <div class="htmlview paragraph">The initial objectives of the Armstrong Whitworth Swing Beam Engine were directed towards overcoming these limitations. This engine layout was designed to create a low noise structure, arising from a balanced linkage system, other advantages of easy start and the potential use of low grade fuel derive from its variable compression ratio and slow piston motion near inner dead centre. Test results so far show that it has the potential for more advanced development.</div> <div class="htmlview paragraph">The developments in the application of ceramics to diesel engines could be a major advance for the small high output diesel engine. They are also seen as a possible major breakthrough for the opposed piston engine in two aspects - firstly because only the piston and liner will need making in ceramics - the absence of the cylinder head eliminates the difficult valve plate and port passage of the four stroke; secondly the potential to run without piston lubrication eliminates the problem of loss of oil in the ported liner.</div> <div class="htmlview paragraph">Low piston side thrust forces of the Swing Beam engine will benefit the unlubricated ceramic liner and also lends itself to introducing the short crosshead piston and piston rod-seals exclude crankcase oil from the cylinder.</div> <div class="htmlview paragraph">Ceramics will also extend the power range of this engine. Increased exhaust temperatures compensate for the lower efficiency of the small turbocharger and so reduce blower power and raise thermal efficiency.</div> <div class="htmlview paragraph">Developments are going on with quiet scavenge blowers and blowers utilising the flywheel which is seen as another important breakthrough for the two stroke diesel. Servo-operated fuel systems also have been run which would give injection characteristics well suited to the (DI) O.P. engine.</div>