JUUL sales recovered after self-imposed flavor ban.

Abstract

Although the company withdrew some flavored products from stores in November 2018, its sales soon surpassed levels from the period preceding its self-imposed flavor ban as consumers switched to the menthol/mint and tobacco flavors that remained on the shelves, say the American Cancer Society researchers who conducted the study. The JUUL flavors removed include mango, creme brulee, fruit medley, and cucumber. Electronic cigarettes (e-cigarettes) were initially intended as a less harmful product to help adult smokers of tobacco cigarettes quit, but they quickly became popular among teens as companies such as JUUL began marketing to that audience through social media and youth-oriented events, public health experts say. Among other things, many teens say they vape because they like the flavor or for social reasons. For the study, Alex Liber, MSPH, a senior scientist with the American Cancer Society's economic and health policy research program, and his colleagues analyzed Scantrack data from The Nielsen Company regarding e-cigarette sales in drug, convenience, and food stores from January 2015 to October 2019. From 2017 through 2018, JUUL sales grew along with the share of fruit-flavored e-cigarettes. The latter increased from 12.9% of sales in January 2017 to 33.3% of sales in October 2018. At the same time, sales of tobacco-flavored e-cigarettes dropped from 39.7% to 16.6% of sales. When JUUL voluntarily removed fruit flavors in November 2018, sales of fruit-flavored products declined to 9.1% across Nielsen-tracked retailers by April 2019, while the share of menthol/mint-flavored products rose from 33% to 62.5%. During the same period, tobacco flavor sales grew from 16.6% to 22.3%. JUUL captured approximately 91% of this growth in tobacco sales and all of the growth in menthol/mint sales, surpassing their previous maximum within 12 weeks. Furthermore, because fruit-flavored products continued to be offered by other e-cigarette manufacturers, sales for the category began to increase. They grew to $60.6 million or approximately 15.8% of sales by September 2019, driven by fruit-flavored sales for the NJOY brand, maker of the popular disposable e-cigarette the NJOY Daily. However, earlier this year, NJOY said that it too would voluntarily halt sales of fruit-flavored products. According to the Nielsen data, e-cigarette sales (including hardware) peaked in August 2019 at $441 million per month. Although researchers cannot yet say why sales began to slow after that peak, reasons could include customer response to media reports regarding the outbreak of vaping-related illnesses and announced bans on the sales of all or some e-cigarettes by governors in several states. Mr. Liber concludes that companies that impose their own restrictions are unlikely to improve public health. “It is highly unlikely that overall youth use declined given the short-lived impact on sales trends for JUUL cartridges and the rapid recovery of flavored cartridge sales within the very retail channels that should have seen the largest declines from JUUL's actions,” he said. In addition, if the government exempts some e-cigarettes from a flavor regulation and not others, the market will fill the void, he adds.