Jean-Baptiste Gossé, L’Europe face aux déséquilibres mondiaux : une analyse historique, théorique et empirique

Abstract

In the 2000s, the United States received a record transfer of saving. In this thesis, we study the consequences of global imbalances for Europe. Firstly, we highlight a British cycle of global imbalances (1815-1944) during which Europeans benefited from saving transfers and an American cycle (since 1944) which Europeans did not really take part in. We built up a theoretical model to show that the British cycle is based on a “current account – foreign investments – investment income” loop which allowed countries in Europe to consume more than they produced while their foreign assets and investment incomes continued to rise. During the American cycle our model points out that the accumulation of global imbalances is due to the growth strategies of Asia, the OPEC and the United States which implies for Europe: (i) a slowdown in the growth; (ii) an appreciation of the euro; (iii) a weak impact on the current account balance. We use structural VAR model to confirm these three results for the euro area. Finally, we show with our theoretical model that if Europe had adopted a domestic demand-led strategy, the negative impact of global imbalances could have been avoided. The estimation of a long run relation between current account balance and budget deficit reveals that fiscal policy could have been an efficient way to deal with negative effects, especially for the small countries of the euro area.