Japan's Economic Challenge

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the 1920's and 1930's the West became clearly aware of the critical economic position of Japan and of the political repercussions which it might have. The population was growing rapidly (though at a declining rate). The food supply was obtained from a relatively small area on which cultivation had been carried beyond the point of diminishing returns. Emigration was difficult and, in any case, could have been only a slight palliative for the population problem. Industrialization was proceeding but it required suitable export markets if Japan was to procure raw materials and, eventually, food from abroad. Every year the entrants into the economic life of the country exceeded those retiring from it by four hundred to five hundred thousand. Could industrialization, at its best, absorb newcomers at a rate which exceeded the total annual immigration into Canada? An aggressive policy seemed (as indeed it was) a probable outcome. But there were always those who contended that it was a mistake and that patience and reliance on international co-operation would have been more effective. The natural market for Japan seemed to lie on the mainland of Asia and to be capable of development not only without prejudice to established interests but with great benefit to all concerned. It was clear that a war between Japan and the United States would not do more than postpone the issue for a few years and prevent the military or imperialistic expansion of Japan. This, indeed, is what war has done. The conflict has not increased the area of cultivable land ; nor has it retarded the rate of population growth. The Japanese still have to earn their living in the world. They still have to find employment for large numbers of young men and women year by year. They have lost a large part of their market in Manchuria and in China. They still, need foreign markets. They cannot hope to acquire them by force. It remains to be seen what can be accomplished by other means.