It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future: The difference between teachers' intended and actual retention

Abstract

Many researchers and policymakers assume a strong, direct relationship between teachers' self-reported intentions to stay and their observed retention. This study critically reviews 24 studies on teachers’ turnover intentions, illustrating the range of ways this construct has been conceptualized and measured as a proxy for actual retention. Second, analyzing survey and nine-years of retention data from 620 mathematics teachers, this study finds that the relationship between intended and observed retention is weak, regardless of specification or measure. Turnover intentions may still be a valuable construct but may be more related to psychological commitment than actual retention.